BANGKOK - Thailand's government and the
junta that established it face a crucial
credibility test when as many as 40 million voters
go to the polls on Sunday to decide on a draft
constitution that, if approved, will pave the way
for general elections in December.
The
stakes are high for the military government.
Colorful rallies led by the government and those
by supporters of deposed prime minister Thaksin
Shinawatra have been held amid allegations of
vote-buying and political
skullduggery.
Tens of thousands of people
have turned out at rallies, with the government
accusing opponents of buying votes and paying
voters not to cast their ballots on Sunday. At the
same time, the opponents have accused the military
junta of resorting to intimidation in the hope of
ensuring it gets the simple majority needed to see
the draft passed.
In large part, the draft
is based on the progressive 1997 constitution,
which was abrogated after last September's coup.
Government spokesman Yongyuth Mayalarp said the
new constitution has been presented to the general
public as a step toward restoring political
normalcy in Thailand.
"This referendum is
a chance for the people to come and give their
vote on whether they feel that this new
constitution answers all those problems or not,
[also] whether the new constitution can fill in
those loopholes [from the previous constitution]
as intended," Yongyuth said.
Thaksin,
living in exile in Britain since his ouster last
year, has been accused of abuse of power,
undermining the independence of institutions
originally set up under the 1997 constitution, and
corruption.
The main changes in the draft
constitution have been directed toward reducing
the power of the executive branch while increasing
that of the bureaucracy, military and judiciary.
These broad measures have been the target of
criticism by pro-democracy groups.
Pro-democracy activists and Thaksin
supporters have said the draft constitution is
aimed at reducing people's power while empowering
the state. They also allege that they have not
been allowed to campaign against the charter in
the rural areas, where the exiled Thaksin still
commands popular support.
If the draft
gains popular approval, the number of elected
representatives to the lower house of Parliament
will be reduced, with fewer representatives
selected through the previous party list system,
which helped tighten Thaksin's Thai Rak Thai [TRT]
party's grip on Parliament. Half of the Senate,
which will be reduced from 200 to 150 members,
will no longer be elected but rather appointed by
a committee of bureaucrats and senior judges.
Opinion polls in recent weeks indicate
that the draft constitution will be narrowly
passed, though there is uncertainty over voter
turnout. "From the [opinion] polls done two weeks
ago it was something like 68% of eligible voters
are likely to turn up. However, I just heard from
the Election Commission that they anticipate a
figure of around 50%," Yongyuth said.
The
Election Commission has 45 million eligible voters
on its rolls, with 87,000 polling units around the
country that will stay open from 8am to 4pm.
Recent cabinet estimates, however, put a target
turnout of only about 23 million voters.
Bangkok Post columnist Veera
Prateepchaikul agrees that the chief concern is
voter turnout. "What seems to matter most is a low
voter turnout - or less than 50% in favor of the
draft. That would be seen as a success [for the
pro-Thaksin coalition] because their real
intention is to shame or embarrass the CNS
[Council on National Security]," Veera said.
Yongyuth admitted that the main aim of the
opposition is to embarrass the government, as
elections would go ahead anyway under an earlier
constitution proposed by the junta. "If the draft
constitution is not accepted, then the National
Security Council has to consult with the cabinet
to look at the previous constitutions."
The most popular of past charters is
arguably the 1997 constitution, which included
various democratic protections and guarantees. If
the draft charter fails, the junta could make
modifications to the 1997 charter, a process that
could delay new polls from mid-December until
early next year.
This week, interim Prime
Minister Surayud Chulanont led a rally of about
50,000 charter supporters in the northern city of
Chiang Mai - formerly a Thaksin stronghold - while
10,000 supporters of Thaksin's now-disbanded TRT
party, along with groups opposing the draft
constitution, rallied in central Bangkok.
Chaturon Chaisaeng, former interim leader
of TRT, told a gathering prior to a rally on
Wednesday that the constitution was illegitimate
and undemocratic and warned that it had "poisoned"
the country's political-party system. A former
parliamentary president, Uthai Pimchiachon, was
reported in the local media as saying he believed
another coup would be inevitable if the current
constitution draft is passed.
At that
rally, a 35-year-old information-technology
worker, who identified himself only by his
nickname Gun, said he feared a showdown between
pro-Thaksin groups and any new government. "I
think the situation is similar to May 1992 if the
military cannot respond in the right way for these
kinds of people [Thaksin supporters]. So I think
they may have some kind of problem."
Then,
the Thai government was led by a non-elected
military leader, General Suchinda Krayprayoon,
despite parliamentary elections earlier in 1992.
But Suchinda's appointment, after leading a coup
in February 1991 that unseated a democratically
elected government, infuriated the middle class,
which then wanted to see an end to the military's
role in politics.
This time the middle
class is more supportive of the military
government. Desai Mywong, a trader from the
seaside town of Pattaya, said he is happy with the
new constitution. "I think this constitution is
better than the last constitution. There is more
freedom, especially for Thai people. I want all of
my friends to say 'yes' on the 19th of this
month," he said.
But the trader at the
same time fears that Thaksin is looking for a
return to politics, leveraging his still-strong
support among the rural poor, where TRT-initiated
populist policies won the party a huge following.
"I'm not sure, but I think that Thaksin is trying
make a comeback. He is not finished. He has a lot
of money," he said.
A large military
presence is being maintained in rural areas in the
run-up to the referendum, and the junta has since
the outset of its coup maintained tight control
over radio stations and state-run television.
Thitinan Pongsudirak, a political scientist at
Chulaongkorn University, said in a commentary that
if the referendum is voted down, the CNS and the
appointed interim government of Surayud will face
a "crisis of legitimacy".
"A failed
referendum would be tantamount to a public rebuff
of the coup and its attempted reconstruction of a
political landscape that prevailed during the
1980s and 1990s," Thitinan said. "With the balance
of forces overwhelmingly in favor of charter
passage, an unexpected disapproval of the
referendum is likely to lead to heightened
political turmoil."
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