The Association of Southeast Asian Nations
(ASEAN) turned 40 this summer, raising the
question of whether the regional grouping is
facing a mid-life crisis. Or, alternatively, is it
on the verge of maturing into a more cohesive and
relevant organization capable of carrying out its
self-proclaimed "driver's seat" role in East Asia
community-building?
Only time will tell,
but there are some encouraging signs that ASEAN
may be coming of age, beginning with the creation
of the
new
ASEAN Charter to manage "the key challenges of
regional integration, globalization, economic
growth, and new technologies". A formal charter
would add a "legal personality" and a greater
degree of cohesiveness and clarity to earlier
efforts to build an ASEAN community (or more
precisely, three interrelated communities: an
ASEAN security community, an ASEAN economic
community and an ASEAN socio-cultural community).
ASEAN's Eminent Persons Group (EPG)
provided the assembled leadership a draft charter
at the 2006 annual ASEAN summit in Cebu,
Philippines. Since then, an ASEAN high-level task
force has been hard at work, refining (read:
toning down) some of the more dramatic
suggestions, such as a controversial section
recommending sanctions, including expulsion from
ASEAN, for those violating the charter, which has
reportedly been dropped.
The EPG also
recommended that ASEAN relax its full-consensus
decision-making style; it remains to be seen
whether this suggestion, and one opposing
"extra-constitutional" methods of changing
government, as happened last year in Thailand,
will make the final cut.
One controversial
provision that apparently did make the cut last
month was the establishment of a new Human Rights
Commission, over initial objections by Myanmar,
among others. While the final version has not yet
been seen - it is scheduled to be unveiled and
approved at the November ASEAN summit in Singapore
- the charter is expected to "accelerate ASEAN
integration" while making it a more "rules-based"
organization.
One ASEAN senior official
noted that the new charter "would also help put
into place a system in which more ASEAN agreements
would be effectively implemented and enforced long
after the symbolic signing ceremonies". To those
who have long accused ASEAN of valuing form over
substance, this will be a welcome development.
More good news came in the naming of
former Thai foreign minister Surin Pitsuwan as
ASEAN's next secretary general, effective next
January. Surin, a Muslim, is seen as a proactive
supporter of greater "constructive engagement"
both within ASEAN and between ASEAN and its
neighbors. He will, according to incumbent
secretary general Ong Keng Yong, "have a clear
direction and more of a mandate" as a result of
the charter. There is no questioning his energy,
enthusiasm, and commitment - what remains to be
seen is how much of a collective voice he will be
able to employ, and to what end.
As part
of its "coming of age" process, ASEAN is also
developing a "plan of action" to enhance its
10-year-old Treaty of the Southeast Asia Nuclear
Weapons Free Zone (SEANWFZ), which prohibits the
development, testing, or basing of nuclear weapons
within its territories while permitting nuclear
energy for peaceful purposes.
I would
offer a suggestion to those tasked with drawing up
the implementation plan, namely an amendment to
the SEANWFZ that would prohibit reprocessing or
enrichment activities within the region, thus
closing one of the current Non-Proliferation
Treaty loopholes that have contributed to the
current difficulties with North Korea and Iran.
This should increase the treaty’s attractiveness
to those parties, including the United States,
that have not yet acceded to the treaty.
Meanwhile, Washington's relations with
ASEAN have never been deeper while appearing so
shallow. US Deputy Secretary of State John
Negroponte, at last month's annual ASEAN Regional
Forum (ARF) meeting, applauded the effort to
develop a charter that "strengthened democratic
values, good governance, the rule of law, and
respect for human rights and freedom".
He
also marked the 30th anniversary of US-ASEAN
relations by refining and strengthening the
Enhanced Partnership Plan of Action signed between
Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and her ASEAN
counterparts during the July 2006 ARF meeting.
This action plan grew out of the Enhanced
Partnership joint vision statement announced by US
President George W Bush and assembled ASEAN
leaders during the first ever US-ASEAN summit
along the sidelines of the November 2005
Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) leaders'
meeting.
The plan of action guides
cooperation as ASEAN advances toward its goal of
political, economic and social integration while
enhancing cooperation on critical transnational
challenges such as terrorism, narcotics
trafficking, infectious diseases, and protecting
the environment.
It complements the August
2006 US-ASEAN Trade and Investment Framework
Arrangement that established a regular and formal
dialogue on trade and investment matters and a
joint work plan to enhance two-way trade that
exceeded US$168 billion last year. Collectively,
ASEAN is America's fourth-largest trading partner;
to date, US companies have invested nearly $90
billion in ASEAN countries.
That's the
good news. Unfortunately, when it comes to
US-ASEAN relations, form has not matched
substance. Rice this year missed her second ARF
meeting (out of three opportunities) and Bush
canceled the full US-ASEAN summit, which had been
planned by Singapore after this year's APEC
summit.
As a result, Bush's third summit
with the "ASEAN Seven" - the ASEAN members of APEC
(Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia, Brunei,
the Philippines and Vietnam; the other members of
ASEAN are Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar) - appears to
be a consolation prize, rather than another
significant step forward. One frequently hears the
accusation that Washington is "neglecting"
Southeast Asia, despite the above-cited
significant advancements.
To correct this
perception, and given the fact that Bush has yet
to make his first trip to East Asia this year,
serious consideration should be given to arranging
such a visit coincident with this year's
Singapore-hosted East Asia Summit, to underscore
Washington's support for ASEAN's coming-of-age
process. It would further permit Bush to be
invited as a special guest to the East Asia
Summit, while skirting tricky membership
questions, thus showing support for East Asia
community-building as well.
Ralph A Cossa
(pacforum@hawaii.rr.com) is president of the
Pacific Forum CSIS.
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