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2 ASIA HAND Thai
reshuffle exposes cracks in
military By Shawn W Crispin
BANGKOK - Political parties are gearing up
for general elections in December that promise to
usher Thailand back from military to democratic
rule. But a highly anticipated military reshuffle,
including most crucially the promotion of a new
army commander-in-chief, could have a more
profound effect on Thailand's political future
course than the upcoming polls.
With a new
constitution that empowers political appointees who
are
likely to be influenced by the military over
elected politicians, and impending new
national-security legislation that, among other
anti-democratic provisions, will give the military
legal protection in the event of future coups,
Thailand's next army commander will, in the name
of upholding national security, have significant
discretionary authority over politics.
To
what degree the Thai military actually exercises
those broad new powers will be largely determined
by who of three distinctly different career
soldiers is elevated next week to the army's top
spot. Assistant army chiefs General Saprang
Kalayanamitr and General Anupong Paochinda and
army chief of staff Lieutenant-General Montri
Sangkhasap are viewed as the top contenders for
the post, which will be vacated this month when
incumbent commander and Council for National
Security (CNS) chief General Sonthi Boonyaratklin
takes mandatory retirement.
Saprang and
Anupong - both ranking CNS members and crucial
commanders during last year's military coup that
toppled prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra - had
until recently been viewed as the front-runners,
with the policy and planning expert Montri
considered a step behind in the race. The two CNS
officials have since the coup been locked in a
subtle competition for the promotion, and the
behind-the-scenes contest has intensified in the
run-up to the announcement.
Saprang, 59,
would be eligible to serve as commander for just
one year before according to military protocol he
must retire, while the younger Anupong and Montri
could hold the post respectively for three and two
years. Some military watchers contend that with
the impending transition from military to
democratic rule, where the army's role will still
be crucial to political stability, elevating a
commander who would be a lame duck after only six
months would be a potentially destabilizing
course.
"If the army is going to take a
full step into politics, then it will be Saprang.
If only a half-step, then Anupong. And if it
intends to beat a full retreat or take one step
back, it will be Montri," said Panitan
Wattanayagorn, a military scholar at Bangkok's
Chulalongkorn University and a personal adviser to
Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont.
Perceptible cracks in army unity, some
military-watchers maintain, could provide a
political opening for the exiled Thaksin and his
in-country political proxies in the new People's
Power Party to play divide-and-rule politics
inside the institution and potentially open
parliamentary debate about the legality of last
year's coup. Defense Minister Boonrawd Somtas
hinted last week that the internal jockeying for
the post is already affecting political stability.
His comments came hot on the heels of
rumors that Saprang - who was quoted in the local
press saying that he was unwilling to work under a
less senior officer, meaning Anupong or Montri,
after the next reshuffle - might attempt to launch
a counter-coup if he is overlooked for the post or
kicked upstairs to the less powerful ceremonial
position of supreme commander. (Saprang has since
publicly denied the rumors.)
Competing
visions The internal power struggle has
exposed long-brewing rifts pitting hardline versus
moderate factions inside the CNS and highlighted
their competing visions for the military's future
political role.
The hardline camp
represented by Saprang believes that the
CNS-appointed interim government and its
investigative committees have moved too slowly and
timidly in prosecuting Thaksin, his family
members, and political associates - despite the
recent arrest warrants issued for the ex-premier
and the court-ordered dissolution in May of his
Thai Rak Thai political party. To guard against
possible opposition-led probes in the next
democratically elected government, the hardline
camp, and Saprang in particular, is believed to
favor a sustained military involvement in
day-to-day politics.
The moderates have so
far trumped the hardliners. Apart from prosecuting
Thaksin, the interim government led by former army
commander and privy councilor Surayud has mainly
handled with kid gloves the ex-premier's followers
and anti-junta demonstrators - though it's unclear
that his tack has achieved the military's stated
goal of national reconciliation.
Saprang
and his coup-maker ally, Prasong Soonsiri, a
former spy chief who now heads the
military-appointed National Legislative Assembly,
have both recently criticized Surayud's
administration for failing sufficiently to weed
out Thaksin's influence in the bureaucracy and
military and achieve the coup-makers' stated
initial aims. It's unclear - but potentially
significant for future stability - whether the two
powerful hardline figures suspect that Anupong may
harbor latent loyalties to Thaksin through their
association as pre-cadet academy Class 10
schoolmates.
Divisive reshuffles have over
the course of Thailand's military history
frequently caused political ripples. Military
experts note that the stakes are especially high
for the impending rotation after
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