Page 2 of 2 ASIA HAND
Thailand's rocky road ahead
By Shawn W Crispin
have tended to vote on party lines. The three parties have also hinted their
willingness to work with the military - unlike the PPP - which will likely give
them a cosmic edge in forming the next coalition government.
The Democrats are expected to win all of the southern region's 54 seats, take
the majority of Bangkok's 37 seats, place strongly in
the central region, and make strong inroads in the north and lesser ones in the
northeastern regions, which should give them about 150 seats among the Lower
House's 400 elected MP positions.
The PPP is expected to be popular in the poor north and northeastern regions,
where historically elections have been won and lost. The northeast accounts for
136, and the north 72, of the Lower House's 400 elected MPs. The two regions
also account for the most so-called "party list" seats, which account for
another 80 seats in Parliament.
Thaksin was able to sweep the region at both the 2001 and 2005 polls through
populist pledges of cheap health care, debt moratoriums and village development
funds, and just as crucially through his identification and recruitment of
popular grassroots figures into his party's camp. The PPP, which likely will
consist of about 180 former TRT MPs, is expected to play on Thaksin's
still-strong grassroots popularity and a vow to extend his populist policies.
That said, the coup and TRT's subsequent court-ordered dissolution have
resulted in a significant splintering of the party's rank and file. Thaksin's
party won 377 of Parliament's 500 seats at the previous poll. But the defection
of former TRT deputy leader and labor minister Somsak Thepsuthin, who heads a
faction of 70-80 former MPs known as Matchima, is particularly significant
because his power base is in the pivotal northeastern region.
The announcement this week that Matchima has joined forces with influential
elements of another northeastern-oriented breakaway Thai Rak Thai faction,
known as Saman Chan, as well as the small Reconciliation and Bangkok 50 group
and Pracharaj parties, will make the newly formed Motherland Party a formidable
third force at the upcoming polls.
The new party is expected to compete head to head with the PPP for votes in the
northeast and has already hinted at a campaign that bids to "out-populist" the
PPP. For instance, Matchima leader Somsak has already vowed to top Thaksin's
popular "1 million cows" policy, where livestock is given to poor rural
families, by disbursing 2 million cows if the party is elected.
All of this, of course, is semi-educated guesswork. There are already
unconfirmed reports circulating of heavy-duty money-politicking - where MPs are
allegedly going for about 40 million baht (US$1.2 million) per head in the
northeastern region - financial incentives that could result in shifting
allegiances and mass defections in the run-up to the polls. Whom the smaller
Thai Ruam Jai and undecided elements of the Saman Chan parties finally join
forces with is still a wild card.
What is certain is that the upcoming polls will be messy, complicated by the
fact that the military is expected to maintain martial law and position
soldiers near ballot boxes in hotly contested constituencies in the north and
northeast. Political analysts believe that armed presence in particularly
sensitive areas during last month's constitutional referendum, including former
TRT stronghold Buriram province, cut down significantly on vote-buying aimed at
defeating the new charter.
Military planners are reportedly keen to extend that armed presence in the
swing northeastern and northern regions at the upcoming polls, so much so that
there are apparent plans to redeploy troops from the restive southern regions
to help manage the election.
The CNS and its military-appointed government and National Assembly have over
the past year taken foreign investors on a roller-coaster ride, with capital
controls, nationalistic revisions to the Foreign Business Act, and widespread
rhetoric of implementing an inward-looking "sufficiency economy" that
concentrates more on "gross national happiness" than gross national product.
If the conservative Democrat party forms the core of the next government, it
can be expected to implement classic neo-liberal, foreign-investor-friendly
policies. The party has already indicated that it would move to repeal the
capital controls and ramp up fiscal spending if elected. At the same time, it's
still unclear how much influence the military and its political proxies will
have over the Lower House of the next Parliament. It's a relatively safe bet
that they will guard against a complete reversal of the nationalistic policies
they have made, particularly in relation to the Foreign Business Act.
The PPP would likely try to resurrect Thaksin's economic policies, which after
lurching toward more protectionism in the early phases were decidedly
laissez-faire for most of his tenure. The Motherland Party could potentially
represent a more nationalistic posture, judging provisionally by its party
slogan "Building the nation, maintaining religion, and safeguarding the
monarchy."
The uncertain future
It's important to note that there is a palpable feeling among certain elite
circles that in recent years Thailand has opened too much, too fast to foreign
investment in domestic-oriented industries and that new opportunities opening
in the tourism and property sectors should prioritize Thai over foreign
entrepreneurs.
To be sure, Thailand still wants and courts large-scale, export-oriented
investments, but indications are that the door is closing and will likely
continue to close on smaller-scale ventures that compete for domestic markets.
No party has yet to play the anti-foreigner card overtly and I don't expect any
of them will. But it's also interesting to note that the new constitution
mandates that the next government implements King Bhumibol Adulyadej's
sufficiency-economy concept and that the highly respected monarch himself said
in a recent speech to officials that the philosophy should be fully, not
partially, followed.
The unspoken subtext to all of this is the role of the palace, which by Thai
law is above politics. The Privy Council advisory body to King Bhumibol was
seen by many as instrumental in planning and staging last year's coup - though
the council has denied it. Since the coup, the body's president, Prem
Tinsulanonda, has been dragged in unprecedented fashion into the cut-and-thrust
of Thai politics, with anti-junta groups rallying in front of his home and
accusing him of, independent of the palace, masterminding last year's military
intervention.
Many believe that for all the military's original stated motivations for
launching the coup, including the allegations leveled against Thaksin of
corruption, abuse of power and dangerously dividing the nation, it was royalist
concerns that if he remained in power when the highly revered Bhumibol finally
passes from the scene that the ambitious premier could have complicated the
already delicate royal succession.
As Thailand prepares to celebrate King Bhumibol's 80th birthday in December, as
always, speculation is rife among the chattering classes about his health. He
had a major surgery last year and has a long history of heart ailments. Many
Thais will tell you openly that they dread the uncertainty that the
generational transition could cause, and many believe that with the eventual
handover, the current centrality of the institution of the monarchy in Thai
society could be at stake.
If that day were to arrive in the months ahead, it is highly likely that the
military's concerns for national security would trump its stated commitment to
uphold democracy and that royalist soldiers would move to dissolve government
and resume their hold on power to manage the transition. And, as with last
September's coup that ousted Thaksin, it would likely be a popular decision
among Bangkok's upper and middle classes, who, as ever, despite all the talk of
democracy, still dictate Thailand's political course.
Shawn W Crispin is Asia Times Online's Southeast Asia Editor. He may be
reached at swcrispin@atimes.com.
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