Moment of truth for Myanmar's
military By Brian McCartan
SANGKLABURI, Thailand - Myanmar's military
has made good on its threat to use force against
mounting demonstrations that have now involved
more than 100,000 people in the old capital
Yangon, increasingly resembling the mass
pro-democracy movement on which soldiers
tragically opened fire in 1988.
Troops
outside Sule Pagoda opened fire at 2pm on
Wednesday on Buddhist monks marching to the
shrine. Reports conflict, but
at
least one monk was killed and another two either
injured or killed. Other preliminary reports say
that another three monks were shot and killed in
Ahlone, a suburb of Yangon.
Riot police
also beat monks and protesters with batons, fired
tear gas into crowds and let off warning shots
over the heads of protesters, symbolically in
front of Yangon's famed Shwedagon Pagoda. Dozens
of protesters were reportedly arrested and dragged
away into military trucks.
Should the
ruling State Peace and Development Council (SPDC)
call on the army for further deadly action against
protesters, the moment of truth will have come.
Only with a split and revolt in the army will the
monks and their swelling civilian supporters
achieve their apparent goal of unseating the
military dictatorship.
This follows the
movement of troops of the Light Infantry Division
22 into the city on Monday night. Soldiers were
reported on Tuesday as taking up positions around
the city hall and Sule Pagoda. Other soldiers were
reported taking up positions in the city of
Mandalay.
Loudspeaker and television
announcements warned people against joining the
protests or the military would "take action", a
euphemism that often means force. Other
announcements were issued on Tuesday proclaiming a
9pm-to-5am curfew in Yangon and Mandalay and the
assumption of direct military control over
security.
During the crackdown on the 1988
pro-democracy demonstrations, army units that had
been brought into Yangon, then called Rangoon,
were finally ordered to fire on unarmed
demonstrators after weeks of anti-government
protests. More than 3,000 civilians were
reportedly killed across the country, with many
thousands more wounded, arrested or driven into
exile.
In the weeks leading up to that
crackdown, there was a strong hope that the army
would see the light and come over to the side of
the students and monks. Some individuals and
units, especially from the air force, navy and
police, joined the ranks of the protesters, but in
the main the army stayed loyal to its officers.
This loyalty did not, however, stop the
soldiers and officers voting overwhelmingly for
the pro-democracy National League for Democracy in
1990 elections. The then newly formed State Law
and Order Restoration Council canceled the results
of the election, claiming that a constitution must
first be promulgated before a new government could
take over. The fact that SLORC's National Unity
Party had not won the elections was an eye-opener
for the generals, who responded by rapidly
increasing the size of the military and creating
an increasingly militarized society.
In
the almost 20 years since, the army has grown to
almost 500,000 men. Massive amounts of money have
been poured into the military to purchase weapons
systems and equipment from countries such as
China, Russia and India. Army camps have sprouted
up all across the country, both along the unstable
border areas with China and Thailand where ethnic
rebel armies operate and in central Myanmar. The
police, fire departments and even civil-society
organizations such and student and teachers'
associations have been given military training.
The army, and to a much lesser extent the
air force and navy, maintain their monopoly on
power through fear and intimidation and the strict
control of information. To a large extent this has
worked to stifle dissent for the past 19 years. At
the basest level, the army holds almost all the
guns and showed in 1988 its willingness to use
them.
An efficient intelligence network
that has been able to infiltrate or co-opt many
fledgling political opposition movements has only
increased the military's ability to hold on to
power and instill fear in the population. Although
the intelligence apparatus underwent an extensive
purge in 2004, the fear of spies remains a
prominent feature among all in-country political
activists.
Yet the SPDC's control over the
country is not absolute, as the current
demonstrations have shown, and despite the army's
claims of unity there are reports of growing
divisions among the rank and file. The army itself
runs on a culture of fear, with common soldiers
afraid of their sergeants, sergeants afraid of
their officers, lieutenants afraid of captains and
so on up the chain of command.
Myanmar
Army documents obtained from ethnic rebel sources
indicate that desertion is a serious problem and
many battalions are operating at less than
half-strength. Interviews with rank-and-file
deserters reveal that internal corruption is
rampant and many soldiers are deeply troubled by
the human-rights abuses they are forced to witness
and often perpetuate. In recognition of this, the
army began a campaign in 2006 to raise morale
among its soldiers by promoting movie halls and
karaoke bars within its camps.
There are
also reports of dissatisfaction among the officer
corps. Although officers are much better off than
your average Myanmar citizen through their ability
to extort money and the various perks bestowed on
senior military officials, they are also often
better educated and have more access to outside
information. At least among the lower officer
ranks, there is some support for change, although
this is often subdued as the officers are
corrupted through the system in their rise through
the ranks.
This is not to say there is not
support for change among the higher echelons of
the military. There is still pride among some
officers at the army's role in achieving
independence from colonialism and its role in
safeguarding the country from external threats.
But many believe the current regime has been
corrupted. The purge of the more pragmatic
ex-intelligence chief and prime minister General
Khin Nyunt in 2004 may have made many officers
more wary, but privately some still voice support
for the political and economic change he
championed.
An emergency meeting of top
military commanders was reportedly called on
Tuesday by Senior General Than Shwe to discuss
options. The top leadership is apparently divided
on how to deal with the demonstrations, some
analysts contend. Several exile-run media sources,
notably the Irrawaddy and Mizzima, have claimed
that Than Shwe is in favor of opening fire on the
demonstrators, while other commanders, including
the Yangon regional commander and the northwest
and northeastern regional commanders, are in favor
of restraint.
However, it is unclear yet
what exact course of action was decided on at the
meeting, though the junta leadership obviously
endorsed a more heavy-handed approach than
witnessed in recent days. When Asia Times Online
went to press, soldiers were still holding their
fire and border sources report that only units
from Division 22 held in reserve have been brought
into the capital while the bulk of the division
remains in frontline positions.
So while
the monks march and chant and increasing numbers
of citizens come out to show their support for the
protests, the real hope is that the army will not
once again turn its guns on its own people. The
stage is now all set, however; the demonstrations
are growing, the army has been called out and is
deploying units throughout Yangon and other
important cities and warnings have been issued.
The army now holds all the cards and the
fate of Myanmar's protesting Buddhist monks and
their civilian supporters hinges on whether some
brave officers and soldiers will, if ordered, make
the choice not to open fire and instead turn their
guns on the junta's leadership and join the
national call for change.
Brian
McCartan is a Thailand-based freelance
journalist and can be contacted through
brianpm@comcast.net.
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