The current civil
and political situation in Myanmar presents an
opportunity for several major powers, namely
Russia, China, India and the United States. Of
these, Moscow has been working in concert with
China to maintain the military-led status quo in
Myanmar in order to preserve Russian interests.
For Russia, Myanmar is of growing economic
interest since entering into various
arms-for-energy access deals with the poor
Southeast Asian country. In May, for example,
Russian nuclear equipment export monopoly
AtomStroyExport forged an
agreement to construct a
nuclear research center in Myanmar – an
arrangement both sides say would be dedicated to
only civilian uses, but one that has raised
possible proliferation concerns among some Western
countries.
Meanwhile, leading foreign
energy trade company Zarubezhneft, natural gas
producer Itera, and Silver Wave Sputnik Petroleum
are all currently producing from Myanmar's
off-shore oil deposits - often working alongside
the Chinese energy giant PetroChina. Myanmar
purchased 15 Russian MiG-29 Fulcrum fighters for
approximately US$150 million in 2001 and it is now
negotiating with Russia's state-controlled arms
exporter Rosoboronexport for the establishment of
an air defense system using the Russian-made
Tor-M1 and Buk-M1-2 missile systems.
These
business dealings - with a special emphasis on the
energy-related deals - are important to Russia’s
broad geo-strategic designs. Russia, which is
currently one of the world’s leading exporters of
natural gas, is on the path to achieving a near
monopoly on the fuel source throughout Europe. It
is most likely utilizing its growing access to
Myanmar’s oil and natural gas deposits to drive
forward its apparent aim of monopolizing Europe's
energy industry and possibly expanding its
economic and political interest further into Asia.
A recent Russian foreign ministry
statement in the wake of recent street protests
and security forces’ armed response warned that
"urgent steps must be taken to prevent the
escalation of tensions" in Myanmar. The statement
inferred that Russia supported the government’s
crackdown to stop the escalation of hostilities
and restore stability. Russia has also made it
clear that it does not support the imposition of
new economic sanctions, which many Western
countries have recently advocated to hit the
military regime’s finances.
Opposition to
Moscow’s non-interference policy has come from
several sources, including, predictably, the US,
which has called for harsh action and already
imposed new sanctions against the regime,
including new travel bans on senior junta members.
One possible reason for the US’s strong push for
political change in Myanmar is to undermine
Russia’s and China’s growing economic and
strategic interests there.
If the current
regime were eventually deposed through popular
pressure, it’s possible that a new democratic
government would seek better relations with the
United States and its European allies. That
diplomatic realignment would likely come at
China’s and Russia’s expense due to their close
ties to the current military regime. Despite
Beijing’s call for more democracy in Myanmar,
China clearly favors a political transition where
the current regime still has political control and
explains its and Russia’s opposition to any new
economic sanctions that would potentially weaken
the military’s grip on power.
India is
also a factor in the strategic struggle for
influence in Myanmar. India has bid to build
better bilateral relations with Myanmar towards
the aim of securing new energy deals. Yet New
Delhi was recently stripped of its "preferential
buyer" status for certain offshore oilfields off
Myanmar’s western coast.
Soon after
removing India’s preferential buyer status, the
junta entered into negotiations with Russian and
Chinese oil companies. Possible Indian interests
are limited at best since it has been pushed aside
by China. It is most likely that the Indian
government opposes Russia and China in an attempt
to maintain some form of business relations with
the country.
What actions and strategies
Russia may adopt as the global call for action
against Myanmar’s regime grows is still a
wildcard. It is not clear whether Moscow would
back an active international intervention that
still preserved its interests or a more passive
campaign of noncommittal rhetoric.
It is
also still difficult to tell whether the US’s call
for change will be able to generate a global
consensus at the United Nations that leads to new
multilateral sanctions against the regime,
although with Russia’s and China’s veto powers on
the UN Security Council that seems unlikely. It is
clear, however, that Russia has recently extended
its economic interests into Myanmar and hence has
a vested interest in maintaining the status quo.
Published with permission of the Power and Interest News
Report, an analysis-based publication
that seeks to provide insight into various
conflicts, regions and points of interest around
the globe. With additional reporting by Asia Times
Online.
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