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2 ASIA
HAND Turn of the political screw in
Thailand By Shawn W Crispin
BANGKOK - Thailand’s military-appointed
interim government is collapsing, exiled former
prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra’s political
power base is regrouping, and the prospects for a
smooth transition back towards democracy through
general elections scheduled for later this year
are dimming as the country hurtles towards yet
another political crisis.
Corruption
allegations related to private company
shareholdings
that
recently forced several of current Prime Minister
Surayud Chulanont’s cabinet ministers to resign
now threaten the interim premier’s own standing.
The National Legislative Assembly (NLA) this week
grilled Surayud on allegations that he illegally
acquired land and built a home in a national
forest reserve and have sent their findings to the
National Counter Corruption Commission. Surayud
recently revealed in a Thai language television
interview that he was formerly a jon, which
in English loosely translates as “bandit”, but had
long ago changed his ways.
The sudden and
dramatic split in the executive and legislative
branches of the military-appointed government has
laid bare the deep differences in outlook between
competitive military camps about the political
future. The moderate and increasingly isolated
Surayud has remained defiant against hard-liner
pressures, vowing despite the allegations against
him to see through the completion of his term and
keep on track democratic polls now scheduled for
December 23.
However it is just as likely
that the former army commander and privy councilor
will be forced to either resign or dissolve
altogether his battered and depleted interim
administration. Both scenarios would provide
political cause for a caretaker administration -
likely to be led by either deputy prime minister
for security and last year’s coup leader General
Sonthi Boonyaratklin, or the NLA chairman, former
spy chief and coup-operative, Squadron Leader
Prasong Soonsiri - to push back or even
indefinitely delay the elections. The new bout of
political squabbling, this time between moderate
and hardline forces inside the armed forces, comes
at a time when the newly formed,
Thaksin-affiliated People’s Power Party (PPP) is
now being predicted by various political pundits
to garner the most seats at upcoming polls. The
earlier front-running Democrat Party has failed to
generate enough funds for a successful election
campaign and the party’s drive to penetrate the
crucial northeastern region has been hobbled by
internal squabbling over leadership and strategy,
according to sources close to the party.
“The tide has changed completely,” says
one political analyst with close ties to the
military. “At first [the coup-makers] thought they
could destroy Thaksin’s influence but now they
realize they’re going to have to live with the
guy. It’s like Caesar: everyone is scared of being
stabbed in the back and so the hardliners are
thrusting first.”
More significantly,
perhaps, the interim government infighting comes
at a time when Thaksin’s supporters have
dangerously upped the ante of their anti-junta
propaganda campaign which makes liberal use of the
Internet to counter the message of
government-controlled media inside the country.
A senior Thaksin adviser told Asia Times
Online that recent internal polling surveys
allegedly conducted by the military all showed
that the PPP would outpace other political parties
at upcoming elections, based upon still strong
voter support for Thaksin in the pivotal northern
and northeastern regions. Asia Times Online could
not independently verify the information with the
government, but the prediction is in line with
many political analysts’ view of the upcoming
polls.
The same adviser claimed that the
exiled Thaksin is now in the process of
negotiating a sort of political “compromise” with
sources allegedly close to the royal palace. By
Thai law the royal family is above politics,
though King Bhumibol Adulyadej endorsed the
installation of a military-appointed government
after last year’s coup.[i]
The terms of
the alleged deal-in-the-making would potentially
include an agreement that the PPP would without
interference from the military and with the
palace’s endorsement be allowed to form the next
government should the party win the most votes at
the polls. In exchange, the advisor said, Thaksin
would agree to remain in exile in the United
Kingdom and a PPP-led government would agree to
dissolve itself and hold new polls after serving
only two years of its four-year term.
“Thaksin has basically said, ‘We can fight
a short war or a long war’ and both sides seem to
agree that a short war is more in the national
interest,” says the advisor, requesting anonymity
due to the sensitivity of the alleged talks.
Potent propaganda At the same
time other Thaksin supporters are bidding to
present an alternative history to the official
version of events leading up to and following last
year’s coup. That includes the particularly
incendiary claim included in two well-produced,
long-play videos recently posted on Youtube that
the palace was coerced by privy council president
Prem Tinsulanonda and the presence of armed
soldiers in the palace into supporting the
military’s putsch.
The polemical videos,
one entitled “Defaming the King”, the other
“Eliminate the Heir”, also alleged that since the
coup Prem has come into conflict with Crown Prince
Maha Vajiralongkorn and that the chief privy
councilor recently attempted to stop the royal
heir apparent from meeting privately with Thaksin
in London.
The sophisticated clips go on
to accuse Prem of systematically gathering
sensitive - and not always flattering -
information through informants close to royal
family members that have later been widely
distributed to the general public, most recently
in the form of a VCD, in a bid to influence the
royal succession.
Adding to the intrigue,
the clips also noted that the new military-drafted
and referendum-mandated constitution includes a
new
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