Myanmar back on a roadmap to
nowhere By Bertil Lintner
CHIANG MAI - With the opposition subdued
and the authorities vigorously hunting down the
organizers of the September demonstrations - and
the international community held at bay with
promises of more ineffectual talks mediated by
United Nations special envoy Ibrahim Gambari -
Myanmar's ruling junta has put back on track its
so-called "Seven-point Road Map" which it says
will lead the country towards "national
reconsolidation".
A newly formed 54-member
State Constitution Drafting
Commission was set to meet on
Monday for the first time to "coordinate matters
relating to the drafting of a new state
constitution", according to a recent article in
the state mouthpiece newspaper The New Light on
Myanmar. That is supposed to represent the third
step on the Road Map - but a closer look at the
proceedings shows clearly that they are not a
blueprint for democratic reform, but rather a plan
to make military rule constitutional.
After general elections were held in May
1990, the junta suddenly - and to the dismay of
many - announced that it would not convene the
democratically elected 485-member Pyithu Hluttaw,
or National Assembly, but rather planned to launch
a "National Convention" entrusted with drafting a
new constitution. For three years nothing
happened, but in 1993 the convention was
eventually in session. It was suspended in 1996,
after the National League for Democracy (NLD) -
which had won a landslide victory in the 1990
election - walked out, branding the process a sham
and a farce.
In August 2003, intelligence
chief General Khin Nyunt was appointed prime
minister, and shortly afterwards he launched his
seven point Road Map plan, which survived his
ouster on corruption charges a year later.
According to official documents from Yangon, the
first step of the plan was "reconvening the
National Convention", which had been adjourned
since 1996. When that was done, however, of the
1,080 delegates only about a dozen were actually
elected by the people in 1990.
About 200
represented former rebel groups that had entered
into ceasefire agreements with the government, and
the rest, or more than 800, were handpicked by the
military to represent "workers", "peasants" and
other social groups. Despite the breadth of the
convention, no serious discussions were allowed.
The delegates were required to sit in their
national costumes and listen to endless speeches
by military officers. One of the few who dared to
raise any important issues, and suggest some new
clauses to the draft that the military had
prepared, was Hkun Htun Oo, leader of the Shan
Nationalities League for Democracy, SNLD.
The party had emerged as the second
biggest in the country after the National League
for Democracy, capturing 23 seats in the
never-to-be-convened National Assembly. The NLD
got 392 seats, while the military-sponsored
National Unity Party had won in only 10
constituencies. On February 9, 2005, Hkun Htun Oo
was arrested along with 30 other Shan leaders,
charged with "defamation of the state" - and
sentenced to 93 years' imprisonment. Sai Noot, the
SNLD general secretary, was sentenced to 85 years
on a similar charge, while the rest received
75-year sentences.
The National Convention
wound up in September, ending step two on the Road
Map: "After the successful holding of the National
Convention, step by step implementation of the
process necessary for the emergence of a genuine
and discipline-flourishing democratic system." The
third step now underway will be the "drafting of a
new constitution in accordance with the basic
principles laid down by the National Convention."
Little is known of those basic principles,
as to date they have never been made public. But
gleaning from occasional announcements in the
government-controlled media, the following appear
to be some of the parameters:
The president of the country must have at
least 10 years of military service.
Establishment of a bicameral system with an
indirectly elected Upper House and a Lower House,
which in theory will be elected by universal
suffrage. However, 25% of seats in both houses
will be filled by non-elected military officials.
The minister of defense and the minister of
border areas development will be appointed by the
commander-in-chief of the armed forces, not by the
parliament or the prime minister.
In case of emergency the military will have
the constitutional right to seize power and that
seizure should be considered legitimate.
Legal experts familiar with certain
provisions of the draft have said it is not based
on basic democratic principles. However it is
clearly designed to bar NLD leader Aung San Suu
Kyi from holding any office in a future Myanmar.
The draft constitution stipulates that a member of
the assemblies should have no connection with any
foreign government, or children who are not
Myanmar citizens. Suu Kyi is a Myanmar citizen who
was married to a recently deceased British citizen
and her two sons Alexander and Kim Aris, who were
stripped of their Myanmar citizenship in 1989 and
have since become British nationals.
Democratic missteps It is still
uncertain how long the Road Map's step three will
take, but given that the first two steps took 14
years to complete, it seems evident that the junta
is in no hurry to implement even its own version
of what it has referred to as "disciplined
democracy", which to most others is synonymous
with a continuation of military rule dressed up as
democracy. When the draft constitution is finally
finalized, step four states that the charter will
be "adopted" through a "national referendum".
There seems little chance that regardless
of what the charter says that it won't be adopted.
In an interview with the British Broadcasting
Corporation on October 18, 2006, Tun Aung Chain,
an alternate chairman of the National Convention,
was asked what kind of referendum it will be, he
said: "In my opinion, it may be like the one in
1973, a referendum by voting."
That was a
telling reply: In December 1973 - when Myanmar was
still ruled by General Ne Win and his Burma
Socialist Program Party (BSPP) - a referendum on a
new constitution was held, but the voting hardly
met any acceptable democratic standards. Due to
various polling irregularities, including a lack
of privacy for voters which allowed supervising
authorities to easily see whether they case a
"yes" or "no" vote, it was hardly surprising that
90.19% approved that constitution. It was
promulgated on January 3, 1974, and abolished when
the military stepped in to assume direct state
power after crushing a nationwide uprising for
democracy in September 1988.
Assuming as
some analysts do that the referendum on a new
constitution will be held some time next year,
step five would follow: "Holding of free and fair
elections for the legislative elections according
to the new constitution." This would in theory
lead to step six: "Convening of hluttaws
[legislative assemblies]," and then the final step
seven: "Building of a modern, developed and
democratic nation by the state leaders elected by
the hluttaw, and the government and other
central organs formed by the hluttaw."
The roadmap has so far and could still
take ages to travel as long as the military
continues to control all organs of the state while
the so-called nation-building exercise is in
process. And, if anyone - Buddhist monks marching
down the streets, students demonstrating for
democracy, or ethnic leaders demanding their
rights - challenge the new order in the making,
the military will have the constitutional right to
resume direct power.
This is definitely
not what Myanmar's people expected when they went
to the polls in May 1990. And it is highly
unlikely that the international community - other
than Myanmar's allies in the Association of
Southeast Asian Nations, China, and perhaps India
- would accept the final goal of the Road Map as
something even vaguely resembling a truly
democratic system.
On the other hand, it
is still possible that there will be another
popular uprising similar to this year's protests
before the military junta even gets to step five
on it Road Map. Discontent is simmering all over
the country as protestors are harassed and
arrested - and many Myanmar citizens say they feel
that it is now or never to push for political
change. They realize that once the junta's new
constitution is in place - and the international
community and media lose interest in the story -
it will be that much harder to put an end to
military rule because which the new charter is
specifically designed to perpetuate.
Bertil Lintner is a former
correspondent with the Far Eastern Economic
Review. He is currently a writer with Asia-Pacific
Media Services.
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