COMMENT UN climate of futility blossoms in
Bali By Gary LaMoshi
BALI - The United Nations’ famed can’t-do
spirit is in full flower in Bali. The opening
phases of the UN Framework Convention on Climate
Change meeting here seem focused more on what
won’t happen rather than what could over these two
weeks of talks.
''The past year has helped
people around the world understand that nobody can
hide from climate change impacts,'' UNFCCC
Secretary Yvo de Boer told the conference’s
opening session on Monday. Indeed, from Washington
finally facing the issue to
Oslo’s Norwegian Nobel
Institute awarding Nobel Peace Prizes to the UN’s
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and Al
Gore, to Australia swapping a George W Bush-hugger
for a Kyoto signer, a global consensus has emerged
that it’s time to act decisively on climate
change.
''Public expectations for Bali to
provide answers are big,'' de Boer exhorted the
delegates. ''The eyes of the world are now upon
you. There is a huge responsibility for Bali to
deliver.'' But Bali won’t deliver an agreement to
cut the carbon emissions that are the top reason
for global warming. It won’t deliver commitments
from the world’s top three sources of carbon
emissions - including host country Indonesia - to
accept emission reduction targets under the Kyoto
Protocol. Despite the millions spent on airfares,
hotel rooms, taxis, and resort meals, it won’t
deliver a dime to poor or rich countries to
mitigate the impacts of climate change.
Muted trumpet Indonesia’s
Environment Minister and president of the
conference Rachmat Witoelar said: ''Climate change
is unequivocal and accelerating,'' seemingly
sounding the clarion call for bold action. Except
that we’re talking about the UN here. ''Countries
now have to agree on the agenda for the
negotiations,'' Witoelar continued. ''This will
cover the key areas for the new climate change
deal and what the organizational and procedural
arrangements are to get to this result.'' Wake me
when CNN news personality Anderson Cooper floats
by on the next melting ice cap.
''If
you’re hearing messages about what it’s not,
that’s because we and Indonesia have tried to keep
realistic about what will emerge from the
conference,'' UNFCCC conference spokesman John Hay
explained. ''Politically, if there’s agreement for
negotiations to be carried out to reach an
agreement on a successor to Kyoto, then Bali is a
success. Anything less is unacceptable.'' Hay
added, ''It’s true that the Indonesian presidency
for the conference and the UN are keen on managing
expectations.'' Simpler, perhaps, than managing
meaningful results.
Despite UN IPCC
scientists’ calls for urgent action, there’s a
palpable lack of urgency. Some officials here use
the term ''road map'' to describe what’s likely to
emerge from the Bali meeting. But in fact, the map
is already drawn. After Bali 2007 comes Poland
2008, then Denmark 2009. By then, perhaps there
will be a successor regime in place of Kyoto after
2012. But with three years of wiggle room, don’t
be surprised if the route to agreement runs
through additional resorts.
Anything less
than following the map would be unacceptable to
the legions of freeloaders, airlines and five-star
hotel operators that are the real beneficiaries of
these meetings. Think about 10,000 delegates,
airfares, two weeks room and board,
double-barreled security by UN and Indonesian
police, and divide that by the price of converting
coal power stations to natural gas, hybrid cars or
ironwood saplings to get a true feel for the cost
of these meetings. What’s at stake in Bali may be
far less than what’s already lost by the fact of
the meeting - and that can’t be hidden in the
tidal waves of acronyms and platitudes.
Even though it’s one planet, under the
Kyoto accord, a ton of carbon emitted in Shanghai
is not the same as one emitted in Chicago. Bali is
poised not to fell this myth, but to enshrine it
in the next agreement. While there may be a global
consensus to cut emissions in all countries,
there’s a voting consensus to maintain the
distinction between developed and developing
country carbon. There are 192 parties to the
conference, and only 38 of them are classified as
industrialized and thus required to cut emissions
if they sign the Kyoto Protocol.
Do the
right math Following the electoral rather
than emissions math, the UN’s de Boer said: ''Bold
action in the North can fuel clean growth in the
South. Without cooperation, technology and
incentives, developing countries have little
choice but to make the same mistakes that were
made in rich countries.'' But developing countries
today have choices that weren’t available to 19th
and 20th century Europe and America, and it’s
foolish to pretend otherwise.
Former
environment minister and head of Indonesia’s
delegation Emil Salim –-it’s hard to find anyone
here that’s not a head or chief of something -
said: ''We don’t want to develop our country like
the developed countries did. We want to learn from
their mistakes.'' Dozens of innovative strategies
will be on offer in Bali. The question is simply
whether the UN has the will to push developing
countries to make better choices.
''It
looks like an environmental issue,'' China’s chief
delegate Xie Zenhua said of climate change, ''but
it’s a development issue.'' China is a prime
example of a country that, left to its own
devices, seems to have consciously chosen climate
unfriendly development. Does anyone believe a
government that forced its citizens to limit
breeding with the one-child policy - let alone a
one-party policy - couldn’t have continued the
no-car policy that remained largely in place even
a decade ago? Instead, China opted for the
automobile development model that so poorly served
the planet elsewhere.
To be sure, China
got plenty of ''cooperation, technology and
incentives'' for its choice, from the likes of
General Motors, Volkswagen, Caltex and their
Chinese government-owned partners. Bali will not
level the playing field to let small companies and
nongovernmental organizations compete. Bali also
won’t be about what developing countries need to
do, but what developed countries are not doing.
''Developed countries should take the
lead,'' conference president Witoelar said, even
regarding deforestation that’s happening more
quickly in his own country, on his watch, than
anywhere else on earth. Now that Australia has
agreed to sign on for Kyoto - which, despite the
supposed urgency for action, doesn’t require
emissions reductions at all until next year -
delegates can single-mindedly focus on the US
failure to endorse the agreement. Yet, US aside,
three of the top five sources of carbon emissions
are exempt from reductions under Kyoto.
At
least the conference is taking one indisputably
positive step. Experts estimate the UNFCCC meeting
itself will generate 50,000 tons of carbon dioxide
emissions. To offset it, 4.5 million trees will be
planted across Indonesia, locking up some 900,000
tons of carbon annually. That may also offset the
hot air coming out of Bali that can be expected
over these next two weeks.
Gary
LaMoshi has worked as a broadcast producer,
print reporter and editor in the US and Asia.
Longtime editor of investor rights advocate
eRaider.com, he's also a contributor to Slate and
Salon.com, and a counselor for Writing Camp
(www.writingcamp.net).
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