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3 ASIA HAND The choice of a new
generation in Thailand By Shawn W Crispin
like Chatumongkol. I think
it's more important to have people, not
necessarily with big names, but who know exactly
what we want to do and implement it fast.
As for the governor of the Bank of
Thailand, if we were in government we would have
to talk to [Tarisa Watanagase] about the direction
of policy. We respect the need for central bank
independence, certainly when it applies to
financial institutions monitoring and also in
terms of not losing discipline. But there is
no
denying that fiscal, monetary policy, exchange
rate policy must move together to help us manage
the macro-economy.
ATol:
That's clearly what investors want to hear, but
still the Democrats are viewed widely as a
conservative party and some are concerned that
your party still represents the interests of the
old-money, nationalistic camp whose inward-looking
views were given expression by the
military-appointed National Legislative Assembly.
How do you respond?
Abhisit:
I think I have set an appropriate direction and I
get criticized from both sides. There are people
who think we are conservative and maybe we
listening to the bureaucrats who have been running
the country. On the other hand, we get criticized
for liberalizing too much. So maybe I'm getting it
just right.
ATol: Throughout
your party's tenure in the opposition to TRT, your
members railed against Thaksin's populism for
being politically motivated and fiscally
unsustainable. Now your party is campaigning on
your own set of populist policies. How do you
reconcile the policy shift from a past heavy
emphasis on neo-liberal prescriptions towards more
populism?
Abhisit: Where is
the populist element? I don't call free education
populist. That's the most worthwhile investment
you can ever make. It's the longest-looking view
in terms of development of the country and that's
the biggest item we have mentioned.
ATol: All political parties
are campaigning on reviving the economy. How would
the Democrats do it differently?
Abhisit: To revive the
economy, we need first of all to send the correct
signals to the international economy. But secondly
we need to reduce costs. What Thailand is facing
now is a possibility of stagflation. So it just
doesn't make sense to talk about policies that
would put more burden on the people, that hurts
consumer confidence, that hurts investor
confidence and there is no way that the economy
can be revived.
Our platform to reduce
costs through the management of the Oil Fund is
not going to place any additional burden on the
government. So again it steers away from being
populist. We think that without a serious attempt
to hold down costs its going to be impossible to
get people to spend and to restart the economy.
We also attach great importance on the
rural economy, but not in the same way as the
previous [Thaksin-led] government. We're not
talking about handing out loans, but we're talking
about improving productivity, through investment
in irrigation, through more focus on the
development of agro-industry to add value to
agricultural products.
Using the
opportunity of the promotion of more alternative
fuels and also putting importance on the service
sector as well which has not been promoted in the
same systematic way that we are promoting it.
ATol: Your Democrat party
was the first to offer and campaign on village
development funds way back in 1976. Yet in the
wake of the 1997-98 Asian financial crisis
Thaksin's TRT managed with a large degree of
success - particularly in the rural Northeast - to
paint your party's technocratic credentials as
pro-establishment and anti-poor. How and why did
the Democrats get outmaneuvered then in that
crucial battle of public perceptions and how have
you since changed tack?
Abhisit:
I don't know of many governments in the
world who have implemented an [International
Monetary Fund] structural adjustment program and
stayed popular. Our hands were pretty much tied by
the situation [of the 1997-98 Asian financial
crisis]. We did what we had to do to keep the Thai
economy alive. So it's not surprising that we had
to suffer for that.
Since then, we have
had a couple of changes in leadership at the
party. I've spent most of my time as party leader
taking a different approach. Drawing up our
policies by inviting people to participate, that's
why it's called the "People's Agenda". That's why
we spent so much time holding talks, assemblies
with people from all over the place. We've also
talked to [non-governmental organizations], we've
talked to academics, and we've adapted our
policies on a number of issues.
But it's
not going to change just over the course of one
election. I'm pretty confident now that we've
amended these problems in all the regions except
the northeast. And what I would say to the
northeastern people is that if we were in
government, regardless of the election results in
the northeast, we will work for everybody and I
will prove that to them to win their hearts and
minds.
ATol: What are the
roadblocks? Why can't you seem to make inroads in
that particular region?
Abhisit: It's difficult
because we've had very few MPs there, so we don’t
have enough people at the grass roots level to
tell our side of the story. And also, unlike in
any other region, our rivals have painted a very
negative picture of us.
ATol: One issue where your
efforts to send the right signal to foreign
investors perhaps cross-cut with the interests of
the Thai grass roots population is the proposed
US-Thailand free trade agreement [FTA]. Those
talks have recently stalled. Where would the
Democrats come down on advancing the FTA?
Abhisit: Now I think it's
going to be stalled because of the US side. The
authority of the [Bush administration] executive
branch has run out. We support the need for
continued negotiations on bilateral [trade] deals,
but the key thing is you need to involve the
stakeholders. Take the US. They have to put all
the issues to Congress, put it down on the table
for their people to know what might have to be
conceded and what would be gained. We should do
the same for the Thai people.
ATol: That wasn't done by
Thaksin's government, in your opinion?
Abhisit: Obviously not. That’s
why there was so much opposition. And there are
some issues where we've made our stance clear.
Like why we should be demanded to concede our
intellectual property rights beyond our
obligations to the WTO. And it doesn't make sense
to me that the US should be demanding more
protection legally when all they should be
concerned about is enforcement of the law.
ATol: What are your thoughts
on the idea that Washington was too quick to
support the coup and how US-Thailand relations
have played out since the coup?
Abhisit: I think the two
countries are anxious to keep our friendship
intact through difficult problems. That's the
topmost concern. But I'm sure if the military were
to attempt to hang onto power that the US wouldn't
remain silent on that.
ATol:
Thailand has become a very pivotal state in the
growing geo-strategic competition between the US
and China for regional influence. Obviously
Thailand has been a mainstay ally to the US in
recent years, but China's influence is growing. As
prime minister, how would you strike the balance
between the two?
Abhisit: I
think that China has obviously emerged as an
economic superpower and we see China as an
opportunity in terms of markets. And we have
enjoyed good diplomatic relations with them. The
US's presence in the region again is something we
would like to see continue.
ATol:You mean the US
military presence?
Abhisit:
No, just the role that they play in the region.
But I think that they need to be much more
sensitive to the conflicts, especially with the
handling of issues that are of concern to the
Muslim world. And they need to show more
sensitivity. I see that as a major challenge,
especially in Southeast Asia given the number of
Muslims in the region.
Shawn W
Crispin is Asia Times Online's Southeast Asia
Editor. He may be reached at
swcrispin@atimes.com
(Copyright 2007 Asia
Times Online Ltd. All rights reserved. Please
contact us about sales, syndication and republishing.)
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