Abdullah's finger on Malaysia's
election trigger By Anil Netto
PENANG - Malaysia’s political parties,
including the ruling United Malays National
Organization (UMNO), are gearing up for snap
polls, widely expected to be held in March though
the government is not legally required to dissolve
parliament and hold general elections until May
2009.
So then why would Prime Minister
Abdullah Badawi's government opt to hold elections
well before they are due?
One reason cited
by many analysts is that his ruling coalition is
keen
to secure a new mandate before former deputy
premier-turned-opposition icon Anwar Ibrahim
becomes eligible to contest the polls in
mid-April. Anwar has been barred from contesting
polls or assuming any formal political positions
for five years over corruption charges for which
he was imprisoned in 1998 and released in 2003.
Abdullah's government is also expected to
raise oil prices some time this year and would
clearly prefer to do so after, rather than before,
general elections, given the strong protests that
erupted in the wake of the last hike in 2006. The
longer his government puts off the election, the
more oil subsidies it will have to absorb. Fuel
and gas subsidies reportedly now cost the
government around 40 billion ringgit, or US$12
billion, per year.
Fuel price hikes would
likely hurt consumer spending - which grew an
impressive 13% last year - as the public cuts back
on discretionary purchases to make up for higher
transport and food costs. Meanwhile, economic
uncertainties arising from a possible US recession
also point to an earlier rather than later
election. Although the government has launched a
policy of so-called growth "corridors" -
state-drawn economic blueprints for the country’s
main geographical regions - it is still not clear
how soon, if at all, they will produce more
provincial-driven economic growth.
Another
factor pointing towards early polls is that the
longer the Abdullah's administration waits, the
more the current sense of public discontent could
spread. Two major demonstrations in Kuala Lumpur
last November, and a series of smaller protests in
the last couple of months, have clearly unnerved
the ruling establishment. The main parties in the
ruling coalition are either mired in untimely
controversies or factionalism, though they are
expected to set their internal differences aside
to confront the opposition.
Throughout
much of his tenure, Abdullah, who is also head of
UMNO, has had to endure pot-shots from his
predecessor, former premier Mahathir Mohamad, over
his economic decision-making and allegations of
undue influence among his closest advisers.
Meanwhile, the main Chinese party in the ruling
coalition, the Malaysian Chinese Association, is
still reeling from a video sex scandal involving
the health minister, who was previously regarded
as a potential challenger for the party
leadership. As the scandal unwinds, some believe
it could further deepen factional rifts within the
party.
Another major component party of
the coalition, the Malaysian Indian Congress
(MIC), faces a crisis of legitimacy after a loose
network called the Hindu Rights Action Force
(HINDRAF) succeeded in mobilizing 30,000 Indian
Malaysians in Kuala Lumpur last November to
protest against the perceived growing
marginalization of the community. MIC president
Samy Vellu has been widely criticized for not
improving the lot of Malaysia's Indian poor,
despite leading the party since 1980.
Modest poll goals Despite the
coalition's mounting troubles, the opposition has
thus far been unable to mount a united front. For
one, the secular and ethnic Chinese-based
Democratic Action Party is unwilling to link up
directly with the opposition Islamic party, known
locally as PAS. Instead, the DAP is forging an
electoral pact with Anwar's Parti Keadilan Rakyat,
or People's Justice party, which in a complicated
maneuver plans to form a separate electoral pact
with PAS.
Both pacts nonetheless share a
common political objective: to ensure that only a
single opposition candidate stands in each
constituency, thus ensuring one-on-one fights with
the ruling coalition for all 219 parliamentary
seats.
Even so, few analysts expect the
ruling coalition to lose at the next polls. One
main reason: UMNO maintains tight control over
television, radio and most of the print media. It
also has access to government funds and state
agencies which critics say it has used in the past
to its electoral advantage.
The redrawing
of constituency boundaries - where rural seats in
which ethnic Malays represent the majority are
given more weight and Chinese-dominated urban
areas less - is also generally believed to favor
the ruling coalition over opposition parties.
There is also the perceived overall lack of
transparency surrounding postal ballots sent in
from military and police personnel.
Just
as important, many Malaysians - having seen no
other political parties in power since
independence was achieved from Britain in 1957 -
believe, rightly or wrongly, that only the ruling
coalition is capable of governing and maintaining
political stability. This time around, however,
there is an air of restiveness in the streets that
adds a new element of uncertainty to the upcoming
polls.
Some of the issues that have raised
public ire include widening economic
marginalization, a rising crime rate, and a
soaring cost of living. Infringements of minority
religious rights, including local authority-backed
demolitions of several Hindu temples to make way
for development projects, are also expected to be
an issue among significant sections of the Indian
community. Many Christians and Sikhs, meanwhile,
are also peeved over a new government prohibition
on other faiths using the word Allah.
The
premier's unfulfilled pledges to eradicate
corruption and introduce wide-ranging reforms
could also come back to haunt him at the polls.
For instance, the administration has failed to
establish a promised Independent Police Complaints
and Misconduct Commission - a key recommendation
of a commission of inquiry that looked broadly
into police operations and management.
While his administration has made some
tentative moves to reform government-linked
corporations and the civil service, including the
introduction of key performance indicators and
other benchmarks, public perception of the
judiciary took a sharp knock last year with the
release of a politically damaging video.
The unauthorized clip showed a
well-connected lawyer discussing judicial
appointments and promotions with a top judge in
2001, suggesting political and business
interference in the process. In what appeared to
be an attempt at damage control, a commission of
inquiry with narrow terms of reference is now
investigating the video and its politically
explosive implications.
With all that
baggage, there is only a slim chance that the
ruling coalition repeats its landslide performance
in 2004, when it won 64% of the popular vote and
90% of all parliamentary seats. Still, given the
uneven playing field and the absence of a united
opposition front, many analysts believe the best
the opposition can hope for is to split the
popular vote, wrest control of a couple of state
governments and deny the ruling coalition a
two-thirds majority in Parliament.
Adding
to the UMNO-led coalition's troubles, however, is
that the run-up to early elections will likely
coincide with more public protests and
demonstrations and possible harsh government
crackdowns. Protests are scheduled for later this
month and the second half of February on a broad
range of issues.
The complaints range from
the economic marginalization of Indian-Malaysians,
concerns over rising inflation, and perhaps most
significantly, the need for electoral reforms,
including the abolition of postal votes, fairer
access for all candidates to the media and a
revision of the electoral rolls. The longer
Abdullah holds out, the greater the possibility
that public sentiment against his administration
snowballs and translates into less votes for UMNO
and its coalition partners.
Anil
Netto is a freelance writer based in
Penang.
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