The 2005-07 spike in petroleum prices
topping out at US$100 a barrel has prodded
economic planners across the globe to reconsider
their energy options in an age of growing concern
over global warming and carbon emissions.
The Southeast Asian economies,
beneficiaries of an oil and gas export bonanza
through the 1970s-1990s, now find themselves in an
energy crunch as once-ample reserves run down and
the search is on for new and cleaner energy
supplies. Notably, regional leaders at the 13th
ASEAN Summit in Singapore in November 2007 issued
a statement promoting civilian nuclear power,
alongside renewable and alternative energy
sources.
ASEAN - which in 1971 endorsed a
nuclear-free zone concept - also sought to ensure
that plutonium did not fall into the wrong
hands through the creation of
a "regional nuclear safety regime". In response,
environmental activists across the region cited
concerns over nuclear power, highlighting concerns
over safety and unstable regional geologies [1].
Undoubtedly they were taking a cue from Japan’s
recent nuclear disaster [2]. Singapore, host of
the ASEAN summit meeting, made known its concerns.
East and Southeast Asia is the only region
of the globe where nuclear power generation is
growing significantly. According to the Nuclear
Issues Briefing Paper, the region boasts 109
operational nuclear power plants, with 18 more
under construction and around 110 in the planning
stage. In addition, there are 56 research rectors
in 14 countries.
Among major Pacific Rim
countries, only New Zealand and Singapore are
without research reactors. Much of the startling
growth is in China (10 units), Taiwan (6 units),
India (15 units), Pakistan (2 units), Japan (55
units) and South Korea (20 units) [3].
Japan, which generates 29% of its power
from nuclear energy, has two plants under
construction with 10 more planned. More than that,
as Gavan McCormack observes, Japan positions
itself as a "plutonium superpower", not only as
the world’s most committed nuclear country but,
even as one "nuclear obsessed". By this it is
meant that, alone among non-nuclear weapon states,
Japan pursues the full nuclear cycle in which
plutonium is used as fuel after the reprocessing
of spent reactor waste, just as Japan has
accumulated more than 45 tonnes of plutonium or
almost one fifth of the global stock of civil
plutonium [4].
The high risks and
vulnerability of nuclear power plants in
geologically unstable zones were dramatically
highlighted by the impact of an earthquake upon
the Kashiwazaki-Kariwa nuclear power plant in
Niigata Prefecture on July 16, 2007. Fortified to
withstand earthquakes as strong as 6.5 on the
Richter scale, the plant nevertheless suffered a
fire and leakage. In the 40 years since Japan
initiated its nuclear power industry no major
quake-linked damage to plants occurred. But in the
past two years, three incidents occurred - at the
Onagawa Plant (August 2005); the Shika Plant
(March 2007); and the Kashiwazaki Plant. In each
case the maximum ground motion was greater than
seismic design criteria of the plants. Of great
public concern and a matter of high scandal, as
Japanese scientist Ishibashi Katsuhiko explains,
enforcement policy is also in "shambles" [5].
Fossil fuel depletion As Laos
Vice Prime Minister Bounhang Vorachith reportedly
told Iran’s Ambassador to the land-locked
Southeast Asia nation, in words undoubtedly
designed to defend national sovereignty from
outside interference, "Every country should be
allowed to take advantage of peaceful nuclear
energy." Due to the depletion of oil reserves as
well as to the sharp increase in oil prices, the
developing countries have no alternative but to
make use of nuclear energy, he said [6].
In the Southeast Asian region, country
after country appears to be getting that message,
although hydro-electric-rich Laos is a major
exception. With the help of the World Bank and the
ADB, Laos seeks to position itself as the battery
of mainland Southeast Asia, with lucrative
cross-border electricity sales with Thailand and
Vietnam. Even setting aside serious environmental
questions raised by big dam construction on the
Mekong and its tributaries in Laos [7], the limits
to hydro-power generation are obvious. In any
case, few nations are as blessed in this regard as
Laos, although river systems in Yunnan in
southwest China along with the Salween River
flowing through Myanmar are also being dammed and
harnessed for this purpose [8].
While
impoverished Laos is not a candidate for the
development of civilian nuclear power, neighboring
Myanmar has declared its intention to build at
least a research reactor and has sent technicians
to Russia for training. International Atomic
Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors who visited
Myanmar in 2001 were not impressed with the
country’s regulatory framework to develop nuclear
energy. But the notion that Myanmar is
experimenting with nuclear weapons is undoubtedly
overhyped as it lacks the capacity to enrich
uranium. In fact, of the mainland Southeast Asian
countries, Thailand and Vietnam alone are
considering nuclear power options, with Vietnam
undoubtedly further down the road to the
realization of such a dream.
Thailand,
which has long served as Laos’ major purchaser of
hydropower, especially for the energy-deficient
northeast - including periods in the late 1970s
and early 1980s when the two countries were
virtually at war - has now declared its nuclear
power ambitions. Under the so-called Power
Development Plan, four 1,000-megawatt nuclear
power plants will be built and are expected to
start generating electricity around 2020-2021.
Possible coastal sites are still being identified
in the southern provinces of Ranong, Chumpon and
Surat Thani.
The country was visited in
September 2007 by IAEA officials to advise a
preparatory committee on the feasibility of
nuclear power. The Governor of the Electricity
Generating Authority of Thailand (EGAT) asserts
that nuclear power is necessary in light of a
deficit of natural gas seen as occurring within
the next three to four years. He also admitted the
prospect of future protests [9], although the
space for civil society actions in Thailand has
considerably diminished since the military coup of
September 2006.
Since 1984, Vietnam has
operated a 500KW capacity reactor for medical
research located in the central highlands.
Economic reforms kicked off by Vietnam in the late
1980s have been accompanied by steadily rising
growth rates along with a surge in demand for
power. The country’s population of 76 million is
also expected to grow to more than 100 million by
2020.
Electricity comes from hydropower,
coal-fired thermopower, and oil or gas-fired
thermopower to provide a balanced mix that few
Southeast Asian economies have. Even so,
hydropower is mostly sourced in the northern part
of the country and is subject to inconsistent
supply during summer or drought. As a result,
Vietnam remains a net importer of hydropower from
Laos, Cambodia and China. The need to further
diversify energy sources and to meet energy
security is also pushing Vietnam towards a nuclear
power option.
Assisted by the IAEA,
Vietnam has produced a "Pre-Feasibility Study on
the Introduction of Nuclear Power, (1996-1999). In
2005, Vietnam announced it would begin
construction of a nuclear power plant in Ninh
Thuan in central Vietnam, scheduled to come into
operation by 2017-2020 [10]. All power utilities
in Vietnam are operated by the state. It remains
to be seen if local or other opposition to nuclear
power plant construction emerges in a nation
without a history of open challenge to state
power.
Malaysia is also a nation that is
increasingly industrialized, and over the past
several decades it has secured significant
revenues from Petronas, the state-controlled oil
company. Until recently, Malaysian officials
stated that the country does not need civilian
nuclear power given its abundant supplies of
energy. Yet Deputy Prime Minister, Najib Tun
Razak, has stated that limits on fossil fuel
reserves make nuclear power a possible option,
allowing a 15-year lag in planning and
development.
Malaysia hosts an Institute
for Nuclear Technology Research, which supports a
one megawatt research and training plant at Bangi
in Selangor. The country has also asserted the
right of fellow Non-Aligned Nation (NAM)-member
countries to develop nuclear power. More than
that, the Malaysia Nuclear Agency (MOSTI) declaims
on its website that "Nuclear Malaysia is
responsible in preparing the nation for a
resurgence of nuclear industry." [11]
Among the core countries of the ASEAN
region, Singapore stands apart on civilian nuclear
power, at least ostensibly. Notably, in early
2007, Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong went on
record as expressing caution over safety and
security in relation to the region’s nuclear power
ambitions. "We have to understand what the risks
are" and "make sure that there are very clear
stringent rules" [12]. Such a stand might be
accounted for by the island state’s small size and
exposure to trans-boundary threats, its location
athwart tanker routes from the Middle East as much
as its local oil refining capacity, making
gas-fired thermopower the established option.
Even so, at the 2007 ASEAN Summit,
Singapore also touted the use of solar power as a
clean option just as the need for options are
obvious given the vulnerabilities of oil and gas
supplies, not to mention upward pressure on price,
and mounting environmental concerns.
Top down versus bottom up In
2005 Indonesia, the world’s largest producer of
natural gas and long an oil exporter, announced
that it was proceeding with the construction of
the country’s first nuclear power plant. This is
to be sited on the Miura peninsula, actually the
slopes of a dormant volcano, on the northeast
coast of central Java.
Originally
announced in 1995 under the Suharto regime (and
the hobby horse of future President then Minister
of Technology B J Habibie), but shelved owing to
public opposition as much as to the effects of the
Asian financial crisis of 1997-98, the project
involves construction of four 1,000 megawatt
plants, down from the 12 originally planned.
Construction is to begin in 2010 with completion
slated for 2017. A site on Madura island has also
been identified for a separate reactor.
Reportedly, a new constellation of business and
political figures are behind the enthusiasm for
Madura, including vice president Yusuf Kalla.
Nevertheless, criticism of the project has
emerged from legislators, academics, a broad
section of public opinion and vocal local
residents. Unstable geology and environmental
concerns are stated as reasons for objection,
while critics also contend that Indonesia is
blessed with many alternative untapped sources of
power including thermal. Such vocal environmental
groups as WALHI, or the Indonesian Forum for
Environment, argue that even a small radioactive
leak could potentially affect tens of millions of
people in one of the most densely populated places
in the world. [13]
In June 2007, some
4,000 demonstrators against the project rallied at
the central Javanese site, including a local
chapter of Greenpeace. In October, 100 clerics and
scholars from the largest Muslim organization in
Indonesia, Nahdatul Ulama, descended on the site
and, after deliberations, issued a fatwa declaring
the Muria site haram or forbidden, albeit
more on pragmatic than strictly religious grounds.
[14]
According to a Stockholm
International Peace Research Institute SIPRI
report, Indonesia has largely succeeded in
creating an "indigenous fuel cycle". Although
conducted only at the laboratory level, evidence
indicates that Indonesia is active in uranium
milling, processing and conversion. Its nuclear
research program spans five decades. Three
research reactors are in operation with a fourth
planned. Indonesia hosts at least two uranium
mines capable of supplying sufficient yellowcake
to service domestic needs for planned reactors.
While Indonesia operates under IAEA
safeguards, SIPRI’s stated concern is that given
the questionable security of the management of
nuclear waste, "it is conceivable that terrorist
organizations could utilize its spent waste in a
radiological device ('dirty bomb')". [15] Perhaps
of greater concern is the combination of unstable
geological conditions and dubious safeguards to
control the technology.
While Indonesia
appears to be committed to the peaceful
development of nuclear energy, an indigenous route
to power plant construction is not in the cards.
In August 2003, Indonesia signed a 10-year nuclear
cooperation agreement with Russia, which includes
construction of a research reactor and a power
reactor. General Electric, Mitsubishi Heavy
Industries, Areva of France and Toshiba are all
also lining up as potential contractors.
Back in 1994, Japanese consultants
conducting a feasibility study cleared the way.
Indonesian firm Medco Energi Internasional, with
links to Vice President Kalla, has signed a
preliminary contract with Korea Hydro and Nuclear
Power Co Ltd to build the plant. But as Australian
journalist Tom Hyland reports, "Details of the
deal are secret, adding to unease in a country
where corruption remains endemic." He adds that
even though power generation has devolved to the
province level, nuclear power remains the last of
the Suharto-era big projects imposed from above.
[16]
Back in 1994 major criticism of the
project came from Australian experts in the field
(although not the Australian government) owing to
concerns of a potential accident, especially as
monsoon winds would expose northern Australia to
radioactive fallout. On the other hand, it would
not be surprising if Indonesia had concerns that
Australia would acquire or produce nuclear
weapons, especially as successive conservative
governments held to that option through until the
early 1970s, a debate revisited in recent years.
[17]
As Richard Tanter has summarized,
"The consequences of Indonesia and Australia
pursuing their somewhat non-rational approaches to
the nuclear fuel cycle could have very negative
consequences for people who are already suspicious
of each other." [18]
The international
nuclear lobby According to the Tokyo-based
Citizen’s Nuclear Information Center (CNIC), Japan
and South Korea are two countries eager to secure
contracts for the construction of nuclear power
plants in Southeast Asia with Indonesia looming
large in the sights of both players. For example,
Japan assists Indonesia’s nuclear program in such
areas as training in technical and regulatory
skills and through high-level participation in the
Forum for Nuclear Cooperation in Asia (FCNA),
inaugurated in Bangkok in 2000 by the Tokyo
government with support of the Atomic Energy
Commission. South Korea in December 2005 signed a
memorandum of understanding with Indonesia
concerning the introduction of nuclear power.
Japan’s Nuclear Power National Plan, as
released by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and
Industry (METI) in August 2006, seeks to "actively
support the global development of the Japanese
nuclear industry". As CNIC interprets it, Tokyo is
motivated by the fact that domestic power plants
alone will not provide sufficient profits to
sustain the industry through 2030. To remain
competitive and to maintain its domestic capacity,
the Japanese nuclear power industry will need to
win overseas contracts.
According to a
METI-commissioned report of 2006 conducted by
JETRO on the potential for introducing nuclear
power to Indonesia (and Vietnam), obtained by CNIC
under a freedom of information request, Indonesia
presented a number of obstacles. Foremost among
concerns was the lack of trained personnel, the
lack of an appropriate entity to implement the
nuclear power program and failure to address
problems raised by an IAEA study of 1997-2002.
Other caveats entered were that Indonesia had
large unexploited reserves of geothermal power,
that infrastructure was lacking, and that power
usage was highly inefficient. [19]
Lessons learned? The region has
thus far failed to grasp the implications of the
negative experience of the Philippines with
nuclear power. The mothballed Bataan nuclear power
project just north of Manila should send a strong
message to potential nuclear power plant clients.
Initiated in the early 1970s by the Marcos
dictatorship as a response to the energy crisis,
the all but completed, albeit never fueled,
Westinghouse light water reactor stands today as a
stark white elephant, victim of inadequate
planning, corruption, and flawed cost-benefit
calculation. In early 1986, international
inspectors concluded the site was unsafe and
inoperable owing to proximity to major earthquake
fault lines and the then dormant Pinatubo volcano.
Heeding public opinion, the incoming Aquino
government (1986-92) sealed the fate of the
nuclear plant for good when it banned the use of
nuclear power and enshrined the principle in the
constitution.
Undoubtedly, Marcos-era
corruption added to cost overruns in the plant’s
construction, just as the Philippines mounted an
unsuccessful suit against Westinghouse to redeem
alleged kickbacks paid to Marcos. For over 30
years, until meeting obligations in April 2007,
Filipino taxpayers paid US$155,000 a day in
interest on the plant that never produced a
kilowatt of power. [20]
Still, the nuclear
power option in the Philippines was revisited
under the Ramos administration, and in 2007 the
Arroyo administration’s energy secretary raised
the Bataan nuclear option once again with interest
expressed by the Korean Electric Power
Corporation. The lesson of the Philippines’
experience for Southeast Asia should be clear:
when scientists and engineers get it wrong in the
world’s most advanced economies, the potential for
error or mishap in less advanced is magnified. A
Javanese or Vietnamese Chernobyl or even
Kashiwazaki is, or should be,
unthinkable.
Geoff Gunn is
Professor of International Relations, Nagasaki
University and a specialist on Indonesia, East
Timor and the Malay world. He is the author of
First Globalization. The Eurasian Exchange,
1500-1800.
Notes [1] Martin
Abugao, "ASEAN summit to promote nuclear energy,
solar power”, AFP, 13 November 2007 [2] Mely
Caballero-Anthony and Sofiah Jamil, "The Rush for
Nuclear Energy in Southeast Asia," RSIS
Commentaries, 23 July 2007 [3] "Asia’s Nuclear
Energy Growth," Nuclear Issues Briefing Paper 2
(February 2007) [4] Gavan McCormack, "Japan as
a Plutonium Superpower," Japan Focus, posted
December 9 2007. [5] Ishibashi Katsuhiko, "Why
Worry? Japan’s Nuclear Plants at Grave Risk From
Quake Damage," Japan Focus, posted August 11 2007,
and see Jeff Kingston and Tom Hyland, "Japan’s
Nuclear Disaster and Plans to Export Reactors to
Indonesia," Japan Focus, posted October 20
2007. [6] "Laos’s vice-president: Use of
nuclear energy among Iran’s rights," Teheran
Times, 2 December 2007. [7] See author’s "Laos
in 2007: Regional Integration and International
Fallout," Asian Survey, forthcoming February
2008. [8] Milton Osborne, "The Water Politics
of China and Southeast Asia: Rivers, Dams, Cargo
Boats and the Environment," Japan Focus, posted
June 11 2007. [9] "Thai electricity chief sees
nuclear power necessary," Xinhua, 4 November
2007. [10] "Vietnam to build first nuclear
power plant in central region," People’s Daily
Online, October 19, 2005 [11] Contents of
Annual Report 2006 Malaysia Nuclear Agency
(MOSTI). [12] Donald Greenlees, "In Indonesia,
Japan quake casts shadow over nuclear power
plants," International Herald Tribune, July 26
2007 [13]: "Nuclear power plants destroy the
future: Renewable and cheap energy for the
people," Walhi [14] Tom Hyland, "Nuclear
reactor plans on shaky ground," The Age
(Melbourne), October 14 2007 [15] SIPRI 2004,
"Indonesia Country Profile: Nuclear Facilities
Profiles" [16] Tom Hyland, "Nuclear reactor
plans on shaky ground." [17] Tom Hyland,
"Nuclear reactor plans on shaky ground." [18]
Richard Tanter, "The Re-emergence of an Australian
Nuclear Weapons Option: Implications for Indonesia
and the Asia Pacific," Japan Focus, posted
November 5 2007. [19] Philip White, "Indonesian
Anti-Nuclear Activists Visit Japan/Korea,"
Citizens’ Nuclear Information Center [20] Karl
Wilson, "Philippines: Bataan nuclear plant costs
$155,000 a day but no power," Energy Bulletin, 30
June 2004
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