Democracy and death in Myanmar
By Larry Jagan

BANGKOK - Amid Myanmar's perhaps worst-ever natural disaster, the ruling junta has pushed through a new constitution which guarantees its future hold on political power. Over the weekend the military government held a referendum on the new charter in the country's worst cyclone-hit areas, completing a voting process many onlookers have characterized as flawed, rigged and even immoral.

The military government proceeded with the vote amid a gathering humanitarian crisis, where over 100,000 are believed to be dead or missing and as many as 3 million left homeless by Cyclone

 

Nagris, which first hit Myanmar on May 2 and 3. Officials controversially went ahead with the first round of voting on May 10, while postponing the polls until May 24 in the worst cyclone-hit areas.

In the official statement announced by the state media, less than a week after the first round of voting, the Myanmar attorney general and head of the committee that organized the vote, Aung Toe, said that 99% of the 22.5 million eligible voters had turned out to vote, and some 92.4% voted yes on the new charter. A day after the second round, where nearly 5 million voters were registered to vote, the government announced a 90% voter turnout and that 92.9% had approved the constitution.

Many analysts, diplomats and unofficial election monitors strongly question the veracity of those results. "To suggest that the areas affected by the cyclone got 93% turnout just highlights what nonsense this process is," said John Virgoe, the International Crisis Group's Southeast Asia regional director. "It's the final act in a tragic farce," a Western diplomat based in Yangon told Asia Times Online. "While millions struggle to survive, the generals forced people to vote for a constitution that few had seen and even fewer supported - and then they had the audacity to say virtually everyone cast their ballot in favor."

It took the military regime over 14 years to draw up the charter, which will replace the one the army abrogated in September 1988 when it seized power in a bloody coup. The new charter was drafted by a National Convention comprised of a thousand delegates hand-picked by military authorities, which effectively rubber-stamped the proposals unilaterally put forward by the regime.

The new constitution effectively enshrines the junta's hold on political power and legally excludes detained opposition leader, Aung San Suu Kyi, from ever holding office because of her marriage to a foreigner. (On Tuesday, the government extended Aung San Suu Kyi's house arrest by a further year. She has been under house arrest for the past five years.)

The new charter also reserves 25% of parliamentary seats for military representatives - which through their numbers will make it nearly impossible for civilian politicians to amend the constitution.

The new charter also mandates that the president - who will be the future head of state - must be a military man, while the army will retain control of key ministries, including the Defense, Interior and Border Affairs portfolios. The constitution drafting process was the military's political counter to prevent the pro-democracy political parties from forming a civilian government after Aung San Suu Kyi's party, the National League for Democracy (NLD), swept democratic elections in May 1990.

The junta annulled those election results and have since maintained an ironclad grip on political power. The NLD was part of the original constitution drafting convention, but boycotted the process in November 1995 due to draconian free speech restrictions, including possible seven-year jail terms for criticizing the convention's deliberations.

The process was then suspended for nearly 11 years and was eventually reconvened in May 2006 to complete its task. The alleged positive result of the constitution referendum represents a significant step in the regime's so-called seven-stage "road map to democracy", which if followed through will wind up in 2010 with multi-party democratic elections.

That roadmap, first outlined by former prime minister and intelligence chief Khin Nyunt, previously called for a period of political liberalization in the lead-up to the constitution referendum, including conciliatory gestures such as the release of political prisoners, the resumption of political party activities and permission for the establishment of grassroots community organizations. Senior General Than Shwe, the junta leader, has crucially skipped over that step in the original reform plan.

If the regime honors its pledge and indeed holds multi-party elections in 2010, the generals would presumably have to give political parties a measure of freedom to function and campaign if the polls are to have any credibility with the international community. Judging by how they handled the constitutional referendum, it seems likely the general elections will be just as farcical.

Crude fraud
In the run-up to the referendum, state-controlled media strongly urged voters to support the constitution, casting the vote in patriotic terms. The television appeals were supported by performances of popular singers and other celebrities, some chanting slogans such as "the approval of the draft constitution is the responsibility of every citizen".

International election monitors were not allowed into the country to observe the referendum. Some diplomats were allowed to tour the referendum polling stations in the former capital Yangon on both polling days. "Few people seemed to be voting, there were no long cues of people as there were in the 1990 elections," said an Asian diplomat who visited polling stations.

Unauthorized poll observers from various non-governmental organizations monitored the referendum without the junta's authorization. They likewise concluded that few voters actually showed up at the polls. In the worst-hit Irrawaddy Delta, where an estimated 2 million people were left homeless by the cyclone, most villagers failed to vote or those who did were coerced or cajoled into casting their ballot, according to a group of Thai unofficial election monitors, who were in the delta area to observe Saturday's vote.

"We went by boat down to the delta - some three hours from [Yangon] - and saw no voting taking place," one of the monitors told Asia Times Online. "They had not eaten for three weeks and said they were waiting for food to come. We are not interested in voting, we are starving," one villager told the unofficial election monitor. The same villager said the local village headman had been led away by the authorities and voted "yes" on behalf of everyone. In other locations, soldiers promised cyclone-affected villagers access to food and aid in exchange for casting "yes" ballots.

In Yangon, which was similarly hit by the cyclone, voters had to include their identification numbers on their ballots before casting them at the polling station, according to another activist who monitored the referendum. Civil servants and workers in large factories were required to vote early under the watchful gaze of soldiers.

According to diplomats, many state employee voters were given ballot papers already marked with a "yes" vote or had the "no" vote completely blacked out. Other government employees were told by military officials that they had already cast their ballots when they arrived at the polling stations. "No one will take this result seriously," said a European diplomat who follows Myanmar affairs closely from Bangkok.

"This is one of the most bizarre acts ever by this military regime," another Western diplomat based in Yangon told Asia Times Online. "People were angry when they still had to vote - and now they will be incredulous at both the 'official' result and the regime's callous behavior." It's altogether unclear how many lives may have been saved if the government had focused its military energies on search and rescue missions rather than carrying forth the referendum.

On the first day after the storm hit, troops were reportedly on alert to be sent to the affected areas to help survivors and clear up the damage. Instead the country's top ruler, Than Shwe, stopped their deployment because he wanted troops to concentrate on providing security for the referendum, according to a senior Myanmar military source familiar with the situation.

Amid a massive humanitarian crisis, Myanmar has entered into a new political era. What happens next, analysts say, is still a matter of conjecture. "The new constitution is Than Shwe's exit strategy," said independent Burmese political analyst Aung Naing Oo. "He knows he has to provide a facade of civilian rule, but retain most of the power. This constitution gives the Burmese perhaps 5% to 10% freedom."

That is for those who actually survive the military junta's until now wholly inadequate response to the cyclone. Some say tensions are mounting within the army rank and file over the political direction being dictated by Than Shwe. Some younger officers are also allegedly disaffected about rampant corruption at the government's higher echelons, including most recently the widespread and systematic pilfering of international relief supplies earmarked for cyclone survivors.

Other officers reportedly disapproved of the brutal military crackdown ordered by Than Shwe on street protesters last September, which according to the UN left more than 30 people dead. Now, as the true extent of the cyclone damage and loss of life comes into clearer view, and questions emerge about how many lives could have been saved if the government had acted more swiftly, popular resentment could grow dangerously in the months ahead.

Rising food and staple prices, especially in Yangon, could spark new rounds of social unrest, a case scenario which diplomats say would put army unity to a delicate test, particularly if a significant number of foreign aid workers are by then allowed in the country.

But even with a potential armed crackdown on starving cyclone victims, the generals' staying power is now constitutionally guaranteed.

Larry Jagan previously covered Myanmar politics for the British Broadcasting Corp. He is currently a freelance journalist based in Bangkok.

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