ASIA HAND
To coup or not to coup in Thailand
By Shawn W Crispin
BANGKOK - Anti-government street protests, threats of retaliatory
pro-government violence and charged accusations of lese majeste against a top
government minister have all cast a shadow over Thailand's political scene,
raising widespread speculation that the newly installed and democratically
elected government could soon fall from power.
While there are stark parallels between the situation leading up to the 2006
military coup that bumped then prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra from power and
the current round of political chaos instigated by the former premier's proxy
People's Power Party
(PPP), Thailand's political dynamic has shifted and the near-term potential for
another military intervention is - at least for now - slim.
Behind the political noise and parliamentary threats to amend the
military-drafted 2007 constitution, the armed forces and their allies in the
bureaucracy and judiciary are in firm control of the country's political
direction. According to one insider, the top brass has little interest in
staging what they realize would be a highly unpopular second coup, including
among the Bangkok middle class which initially supported and later turned
against the September 2006 putsch they launched to oust Thaksin on charges of
corruption, abuse of power and disloyalty to the crown.
Those allegations were first and most prominently raised by media firebrand
Sondhi Limthongkul, who's People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) street protest
movement was instrumental in turning public perceptions against Thaksin and
bringing on his eventual military downfall. This time however the PAD appears
to lack top military backing and risks instigating a violent street clash
between pro- and anti-government groups the top brass would prefer to avoid but
certain Thaksin's supporters appear keen to forment.
According to one eyewitness, the pro-government United Front of Democracy
against Dictatorship (UDD) wielded clubs, hurled excrement and threw cinder
blocks against their PAD rivals on Sunday, representing a notable escalation of
a previous clash between the two groups. Even in a worst, violent case
scenario, military insiders say the army would stop at invoking the Internal
Security Act to restore order and not look to seize outright political power.
"They understand at this point that a coup would only play into Thaksin's hands
and would present a dangerous opportunity for him to emerge as a democratic
savior," said one military insider.
The risk of an imminent coup is also discounted by the fact that army commander
General Anupong Paochinda and current prime minister Samak Sundaravej have
reached a comfortable political accommodation, seen in the various official
trips the two have taken in recent weeks to neighboring countries. Because
Samak lacks a power base inside the PPP, he has in his dual role as defense
minister leveraged his strong royalist credentials to reach out to the armed
forces and devised what some insiders characterize as a "joint-premiership".
Few military coups have been successful in Thailand's modern history without
the support of the First Army Region, which oversees security in Bangkok. That
post is currently held by General Prayuth Chan-ocha, a well-known palace
loyalist with close ties to Queen Sirikit. The soft-spoken Prayuth has ensured
an unbroken chain-of-command through the promotion of his Pre-Cadet Academy
Class 12 allies into key command posts, including over the 1st and 2nd Infantry
Divisions and the 2nd and 4th Cavalry.
Those four commands have been pivotal in staging past Thai coups and are known
collectively among military insiders as the "four horsemen of the apocalypse".
Prayuth, who is among the youngest officers in his graduating class and
affectionately referred to as "Nong Dtu" by his elder colleagues, has also
placed a Class 12 ally at the pivotal 22nd regiment based in neighboring
Chonburi province.
Meanwhile Thaksin's Class 10 allies, many of whom Thaksin rapidly promoted
through the ranks during his five-year tenure but were later demoted or moved
to inactive posts after the coup, are now apparently divided, including over
questions raised by the coup-makers about Thaksin's loyalty to the crown -
charges the ex-premier has strenuously denied but which have been resurrected
with the recent lese charges leveled against his loyal confidante and former
government spokesman, Jakrapob Penkair.
Those intra-class divisions are embodied in Anupong, a Class 10 graduate with
known close ties to Queen Sirikit and who as First Army commander broke class
ranks by joining the coup-makers who ousted Thaksin and by some assessments has
successfully asserted behind-the-scenes influence over the democratically
elected PPP-led government.
Downside democracy
Those who earlier hoped a return to democracy would restore political stability
and spark economic recovery in Thailand have so far been sorely disappointed.
Meanwhile, it's increasingly clear that the military intends to use the
significant powers it gave itself to oversee elected officials, despite the
army's overt return to the barracks and consistent pledge to stay out of
politics.
Expectations ran high after last December's election that the new PPP-led
government would prioritize its economic agenda, including brisk fiscal
spending on badly needed infrastructure, rather than exacting political revenge
against the outgoing military junta through amendments to the 2007
constitution. The conventional wisdom then was that the PPP would ramp up
economic growth and by association its popularity and then call for democratic
polls it would likely sweep by the end of the year.
Instead, government expenditure has slowed from 16% year-on-year growth in the
fourth quarter to -0.1% in the first quarter of this year, coinciding with the
PPP's taking office and reflecting its inability to ram spending through a
cautious and politicized bureaucracy. After an initial few months of optimism,
consumer spending and investor confidence are again waning due to the mounting
political turbulence and uncertainty about the military’s intentions.
The Stock Exchange of Thailand experienced its largest decline in over four
months on Wednesday, due to foreign investor concerns of a possible coup.
Meanwhile, recent public opinion polls show that the PPP-led government and its
cast of controversial ministers are fast losing popularity among the Bangkok
middle class. The opposition Democrat Party stated yesterday that the
government had failed to notch any achievements in its first 99 days in office.
That likely includes its bid to amend the charter, as it's not clear the PPP
has the numbers needed to initiate a complicated process which would eventually
require a simple majority vote of a joint sitting of parliament's lower and
upper houses. A growing number of MPs and senators who had previously supported
the motion to launch the amendment process have recently backed away due to the
political controversy it has generated, including the resurrection of PAD-led
street protests.
The controversy stems partially from the proposed deletion of Article 309,
which includes a blanket amnesty and legal approval for actions taken by the
coup-makers while they were in power. That specific article also gives and
maintains the legal authority of the military-created Asset Examination
Committee, which has initiated criminal corruption charges against Thaksin and
his family members and yesterday recommended the initiation of judicial
proceedings to seize 76 billion baht (US$2.4 billion) worth of his assets.
Thaksin has denied the corruption charges and says he intends to fight his case
in court.
Meanwhile, the PPP-led government's lackluster performance and waning
popularity has played into the military's hands. If sustained over the next few
months, the government's poor performance will likely build popular momentum
behind the pending constitutional court cases that threaten to dissolve the PPP
and its Chat Thai and Matchima coalition partners on electoral fraud charges.
Some analysts argue that even if parliament does manage to amend the
constitution - including changes to Article 237, which calls for the
dissolution of an entire political party for the electoral violations committed
by an individual executive member - the constitutional court would most likely
rule that the amendment may not be retroactively applied and proceed with
dissolving the parties if found guilty. Decisions in those cases are expected
in either August or September.
The cases are part of what some academics have referred to as a trend towards
"judicialization" of Thai politics, whereby the military and bureaucracy bid to
erode the power of elected officials and reorganize political power to their
advantage through judicial processes. Because the bureaucracy and military have
big discretionary powers in the appointment of judges to top courts,
controversial decisions risk political criticism and allegations of bias,
particularly if those decisions override the electoral will of the people.
A guilty verdict against the PPP would give Samak's depleted cabinet (around
two-thirds of its current members would be disqualified from politics for five
years if the PPP is dissolved) a caretaker role and potentially pave the way
for either new elections or the opposition Democrats to form a new government
with coalition partners.
Assuming Thaksin's assets are seized and the new incarnation PPP's vote-buying
powers are diminished, either case scenario would be preferable to the
political status quo from the military's perspective. And as such expect events
to play out along those lines in the months ahead.
Shawn W Crispin is Asia Times Online’s Southeast Asia Editor. He may be
contacted at swcrispin@atimes.com.
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