ASIA HAND Same rally cry, different reception
By Shawn W Crispin
BANGKOK- On a rainy September evening in 2005, in Bangkok's Lumpini Park, media
firebrand Sondhi Limthongkul first aired his explosive allegations that
then-prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra had shown disrespect for the Thai
monarchy by presiding over a sacred Buddhist ceremony in a throne reserved only
for royal family members.
At the time, those royally-tinged allegations captured the imagination and
stoked the indignation of Bangkok's middle classes, which regularly gathered in
their tens of thousands donning the color yellow in respect for King Bhumibol
Adulyadej, and eventually set the restive stage for the September 2006
military coup that knocked Thaksin from power.
Now, a new anti-government protest movement by the People's Alliance for
Democracy (PAD) - of which Sondhi is a co-leader - has taken to the capital
city's streets, calling for the resignation of Prime Minister Samak
Sundaravej's six-party coalition government on a wide array of charges,
including most prominently that he is acting as a proxy for the
banned-from-politics and criminally indicted Thaksin.
The protests reached a chaotic crescendo on Friday, when a group of between
5,000 and 8,000 protesters overran police cordons and set up camp in front of
Government House, where they have vowed to stay in makeshift tents until Samak
steps down. With widespread fears that the military might be called in to
restore order, foreign investors have driven down the stock exchange by about
12% since the protests first began in late May.
Many analysts and investors have speculated that Samak's four-month-old
administration could collapse in a military coup prompted by street protests
which spiral out of control and the troops are called in to restore order.
However, the current media-generating protests are significantly different from
the ones that paved the way for Thaksin's 2006 military ouster and notably lack
the middle-class support that the previous royally-tinged street movement
enjoyed.
Many of the Bangkok-based young and middle-aged professionals who initially
supported the PAD, and then the 2006 coup, later became disenchanted with the
military's inept rule and now fear that a concatenation of events sparked by
new anti-government street protests will eventuate in the military reclaiming
power. The majority of the 5,000 or so gathered at the protest site on Sunday
were elderly and from provincial areas rather than Bangkok.
Nor does the reconstituted PAD apparently have the same high-ranking military
and aristocratic support it enjoyed the last time it took to the streets, where
even the wives of certain Privy Council members were seen in attendance at some
rallies. That's in large part because the still yellow-clad PAD has failed to
make a compelling case that its new incarnation represents royal interests, but
rather is seen by many as co-opting the symbolism for a more narrow set of
political interests.
Royal guidance
That was apparent to many last Thursday during a nationally televised meeting
between King Bhumibol, Samak and his government deputies, in which the revered
monarch appeared to give his tacit support for the embattled premier. "I expect
that you will do what you have promised and when you can do that, you will be
satisfied," King Bhumibol said. "With that satisfaction, the country will
survive. I ask you to do good in everything, both in government work and other
work, so that our country can carry on and people will be pleased."
Samak is a known strong royalist, whose family served for generations in the
royal court, and King Bhumibol's royal guidance no doubt informed his
government's soft response to the PAD's provocations the following day, after
previous government threats to use force against the protesters. King
Bhumibol's apparent - if not cryptic - support for Samak will also likely
stiffen his resolve against opposition criticism, including a grilling from the
senate on his handling of the economy on Monday and an opposition Democrat
party-led no-confidence motion scheduled for this week, which will take direct
aim at the premier and likely echo many of the PAD's charges.
Not all of those charges have stuck, however, including the central plank of
the movement's criticism that Samak is serving as Thaksin's pliable political
proxy. Because Samak lacked a power base inside the People's Power Party (PPP)
he nominally leads on Thaksin's behalf, the veteran right-wing politician
reached an accommodation with army commander General Anupong Paochinda, who was
instrumental in the bloodless putsch that removed Thaksin.
Anupong has maintained throughout the PAD protests that the military will stay
in the barracks and not intervene in politics. Military insiders say the top
brass realize another intervention would be highly unpopular, particularly at a
time Thais face galloping inflation and a declining economy. That said, it is
widely expected that in a scenario in which parliament is dissolved and a
caretaker government installed until new elections or a new Democrat party-led
coalition is cobbled together, Anupong will support Samak to lead any interim
administration.
The PAD thus lacks the same top brass backing it enjoyed the last time it took
its anti-government cause to Bangkok's streets. PAD co-leader Sondhi's Manager
Media Group's Thai language daily newspaper openly campaigned for coup-maker
and hardliner General Saprang Kalayanamitr to become the next army commander
when he and Anupong were jockeying for the post in the runup to last year's
pivotal annual military reshuffle.
Saprang lost that internal struggle and Anupong has since consolidated his
position around First Army Region commander General Prayuth Chan-ocha, who in
turn has ensured an unbroken chain of command through the promotion of his
pre-cadet academy Class 12 allies into key command posts, including over the
1st and 2nd Infantry Divisions and the 2nd and 4th Cavalry, all pivotal posts
in the staging of past coups.
Off-stage actors
Some military insiders suggest that the PAD could be receiving tacit support
from military hardliners who lost out on last year's reshuffle, including
Saprang and former intelligence chief and behind-the-scenes coup mastermind
Squadron Leader Prasong Soonsiri, who served as speaker of the
military-appointed government's National Legislative Assembly which passed a
raft of regressive and controversial legislation, including a new internal
security act which grants the military sweeping new powers during times of
national crisis.
Both Prasong and Saprang frequently voiced their criticisms in 2006 and 2007 of
the military-appointed government's perceived slow-moving ways, particularly in
connection with the prosecution of Thaksin on criminal charges and the freezing
and seizure of his substantial assets which were still parked in the country
after the deposed premier fled into self-imposed exile. They shared a
perception that Thaksin's influence should be more forcefully purged than
interim prime minister and Privy Councilor Surayud Chulanont pursued, but would
also likely stand the most to lose if the constitution were amended in a way
that repealed the 2006 coup-makers' amnesty.
In a somewhat similar vein, PAD co-leader Sondhi told Asia Times Online in a
post-coup interview in April 2007 that his protest movement had been co-opted
by a "feudal elite" and that after Thaksin was ousted that "instead of allying
with me and agreeing with me that there was a need to reform the whole country,
they looked at me as a threat. So they cut me off."
Now, Sondhi's commercial media interests, including his ASTV satellite
television station which has broadcast live his made-for-television protests,
are also at risk by a June 13 directive issued by Interior Minister Chalerm
Yoobamrung to provincial governors to cut transmission of the station and its
critical news casts. Those interests could be at bigger risk if a bill drafted
by Samak's cabinet which aims to roll back television and radio broadcasting
liberalization plans is voted into law by parliament.
While the PAD's rallies may for now lack their previous levels of popular
support, the movement has so far succeeded in putting Samak's government on the
defensive, pressuring him to shelve plans to amend the military-drafted 2007
constitution, cut loose Prime Minister's Office minister and key Thaksin ally
Jakrapob Penkair on lese majeste charges, and concentrate substantial official
energies on containing the PAD over more pressing national concerns, including
a deteriorating economy.
Despite the charges of PAD and the opposition Democrats, Samak has in his short
tenure deftly navigated both sides of Thailand's political divide of pro- and
anti-Thaksin camps. One palace insider says that the 73-year-old Samak's
premiership is also acting as a de facto audition for what to him may be a more
coveted position, an appointment to the monarch's 19-member Privy Council.
That is one compelling explanation for why the traditionally heavy-handed Samak
has adopted a surprisingly compromising approach towards the PAD and his other
critics. As Thailand's chaotic politics play out in the weeks ahead, observers
will be left to wonder how Samak will interpret and finally act on King
Bhumibol's royal advice to honor his promises, do good and through
self-satisfaction assure the country's survival.
Shawn W Crispin is Asia Times Online's Southeast Asia Editor. He may be
reached at swcrispin@atimes.com.
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