Strongman tightens grip on Cambodia
By Geoffrey Cain
PHNOM PENH - With surging double-digit economic growth and a territorial
dispute with Thailand whipping up Khmer nationalism, Prime Minister Hun Sen and
his Cambodia's People's Party (CPP) rode both to a landslide election victory
on Sunday, securing another five years in power for one of Asia's longest
serving political leaders.
The CPP has claimed to have secured between 88 and 91 of the National
Assembly's 123 seats, up from the 73 seats it won at the 2003 polls and likely
cinching the party's ability to form a one-party government. A recently amended
law previously required a two-thirds majority to form a government, which led
to unwieldy
Now, a party needs only 50% plus one of parliament's seats to form a
government. Unlike previous Cambodian polls, including the 1998 elections which
were marred with political violence and intimidation, local and international
election monitors viewed Sunday's polls as in the main free and fair. There
were over 13,000 election monitors on watch and most maintained the polls were
the most democratic since the United Nations-brokered 1993 polls. Official
results will be released later this week.
That assessment overlooked the CPP's dominance of the broadcast media, from
where many rural Cambodians receive their news, as well as the unresolved
shooting murder of an opposition-aligned journalist, who had reported favorably
on the Sam Rainsy Party (SRP) and hyper-critically of Hun Sen's government in
the run-up to the polls. The Ministry of Information also shut down on
questionable legal grounds a SRP-supportive radio station and the SRP has
alleged that thousands of names were mysteriously deleted from voter lists in
the capital, where the SRP outpaced the CPP in 2003.
Hun Sen, 56, was so confident in his party's success that he took a leave from
the campaign trail in the weeks before the polls, saying he did not want to
give the opposition any opportunities to slander him. More controversially, his
government recently stopped releasing official monthly inflation figures after
consumer prices rose 18.7% year on year in January, with prices of staples such
as rice up as much as 80%.
With the CPP's sweeping win, the previous coalition between the CPP and
royalist Funcinpec party is likely finished. The CPP's co-ruling party from
1993 until today, and the victim of a bloody Hun Sen-led coup in 1997, the
internally fractured party secured only one seat at the polls compared to the
26 it won at the last election. The liberal and outspoken SRP, now the CPP's
main political opponent, is believed to have won around 40 seats, considerably
more than the 24 it notched in 2003.
The CPP's political consolidation was in evidence even before the polls,
including a sweeping win at last year's commune elections. Only 10 opposition
parties contested the general elections, a substantial drop-off from the 22
that part in 2003. A new era of one-party rule is now in the offing, despite
Hun Sen's already consecutive 23 years in power, first as Vietnam-backed
premier, now as a capitalist reformer.
Many now wonder whether Hun Sen will attempt to leverage his power monopoly to
the same authoritarian ends witnessed until recently in Malaysia and still in
Singapore. With a strong and internationally recognized electoral mandate, Hun
Sen can now pursue his reform agenda almost unopposed.
The CPP has benefited enormously from the country's recent economic growth
surge, which hit 10.5% last year. Foreign investment, including huge outlays
from China, is flooding into the country, in part due to the CPP-led
government's recent liberalization and promotion efforts, including plans to
open a stock market by next year. The World Bank in April commended his
government on various reform measures, specifically moves to decentralize more
administrative power from the center to the periphery.
Resurgent nationalism
Some of those gains could be lost to a resurgent nationalism, some fear. It's
yet to be seen if Hun Sen's new government will abandon its nationalistic
response to the recent controversy surrounding the Preah Vihear temple, which
this month was awarded United Nations World Heritage status but also brought
Cambodia into a war of words with Thailand over unresolved territorial issues
around the shrine.
On the campaign trail, Hun Sen and CPP leaders played the temple's listing as a
victory over Thailand, including through chest-thumping, nationalistic speeches
and fireworks displays for cheering crowds at the national stadium in Phnom
Penh. The issue was strategically deployed by the CPP to divert attention from
tougher electoral issues, including rising inflation, alleged CPP-ordered land
grabs and charges of corruption.
However, the recent build-up of troops and military equipment in the contested
border areas has threatened to spill over into a wider conflict, one that would
undoubtedly hurt the Cambodian economy. Thai Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej
has predicted the issue would cool after the Cambodian elections, though
anti-government forces in Bangkok have also escalated it to undermine his
beleaguered administration.
Another big test will be Hun Sen's handling of growing land disputes, an issue
which has pitted rich versus poor, and to a lesser degree, foreign versus
national, in the rapidly developing country. That's particularly true in the
capital Phnom Penh, where the SRP notably fared best at the polls and the issue
has most visibility. In one campaign speech, the premier derided activists
critical of the CPP's handling of land issues, saying if the government takes
land from the rich they will only get angry and initiate conflict. Therefore,
the best action is no action, he said.
On other occasions, he dispensed of a seemingly contradictory line, claiming
the government actively enforces land laws against corrupt land grabbers. That
particular comment was in response to a reporter's question about a 2007 Global
Witness Report on illegal logging in Cambodia, which alleged the premier and
his close accomplices were personally involved in illegal land concessions.
The government's land management policies are crucial to foreign investment,
which has been the main engine behind recent growth rates and led the way in
the building spree now underway in Phnom Penh and other areas of the country.
The Cambodian Investment Board has recently predicted foreign investment will
double to US$2.7 billion year on year. In particular, deep-pocketed Chinese
investors have eyed Cambodia's untapped natural resources and have initiated
various major development projects in the power-starved countryside.
Chinese Foreign Minister Wen Jiabao recently pledged $1 billion in energy aid
which has now materialized into two major dam projects but which also will
displace thousands of rural residents. South Korean investment in building up
Phnom Penh's skyline, including the construction of Gold Tower 42 and the
International Finance Complex, is another major political push for the CPP but
has also entailed the forced removal of hundreds of urban slum dwellers.
The CPP has also granted lucrative foreign concessions for tourism development
at Sihanoukville, including resort concessions to Russian, Chinese and
Australian interests. How Hun Sen uses his new democratic mandate to balance
foreign and local interests will not only decide how his CPP fares at the next
polls, but also will go a long way in determining his final legacy as a
strongman leader.
Geoffrey Cain is a Cambodia-based journalist. He may be reached at
geoffrey.cain@gmail.com. Kounila Keo contributed to this report. She may
be contacted at kounilakeo@gmail.com
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