Ill state of the Philippine nation
By Joel D Adriano
MANILA - Philippine President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo vowed during her recent
state of the nation address to provide more jobs, education, transportation and
food on every Filipino table. To meet those ambitious ends, she promised a
litany of long-term reforms, a renewed commitment to fight corruption and end
armed conflict in the war-torn southern island of Mindanao.
Seven years into Arroyo's tenure, beleaguered Filipinos have heard it all
before, partly because the president is required by the Philippine constitution
to make the annual address. While her supporters predictably touted her
accomplishments and ambitions, the opposition highlighted her government's many
failures and contradictions. And this time public opinion is
squarely on the opposition's side.
According to a survey by Pulse Asia, a polling agency, only 14% of Filipinos
were inclined before Arroyo's speech to believe the political claims she was
expected to make, underscoring her government's failing credibility. A June
survey conducted by the Social Weather Stations, another polling agency, placed
the president's net satisfaction rating at negative 38, making her the "most
unpopular leader" since the late dictator Ferdinand Marcos was ousted in 1986.
Like other regional leaders, her administration has taken a hit from surging
inflation, which touched 11.4% in June. While the Philippines outgrew most its
Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) neighbors last year with gross
domestic product growth of 7.3%, the fastest rate recorded in 31 years,
economic growth during the first quarter this year quickly decelerated to 5.2%.
That included a major drop-off in the industrial sector from 6.6% in 2007 to
3.9% this year and a major collapse in construction from 21.7% to 4.5% over the
same period. Arroyo predictably attributed the domestic collapse to declining
external economic conditions, which she said "only a few are able to avoid".
But the Philippines is falling faster than most of its regional competitors and
neighbors, with Vietnam growing 7.4% in the first quarter, Malaysia 7.1%,
Indonesia 6.3% and Thailand 6%.
Indeed, there is growing criticism of her government's economic policy mix,
which critics say is out of step with fast-shifting and deteriorating global
economic conditions. In her 57-minute speech to a skeptical nation she devoted
a substantial amount of time justifying her refusal to scrap the value-added
tax (VAT), claiming the billions of pesos the levy generated were redistributed
to the nation's poorest.
"If we remove the VAT on oil and electricity, we will lose 80 billion pesos
[US$1.8 billion] for the poor. It will strip the majority of our people of the
means to ride out the world food and energy crisis," she said.
Political analyst Randy David said he was suspended in disbelief by Arroyo's
analysis that the VAT, which disproportionately squeezes the poor, is actually
helping them. He said most people would be willing to pay more in taxes if they
knew where the money was going and were more confident it was being put to good
use.
That's not the case under Arroyo's scandal-plagued administration. A 2007 World
Bank report claimed that the Philippines was "the most corrupt among 10 of East
Asia's leading economies, even worse than Indonesia". The bank conservatively
estimated that the Philippines loses more than US$2 billion a year to
corruption. A global competitiveness survey conducted in 2006 ranked the
Philippines "60th worst among 61 countries in terms of bribery and corruption".
Arroyo mentioned in her state of the union address so-called lifestyle checks
which "have led to the dismissal and/or criminal prosecution of dozens of
corrupt officials". However, critics note that none of the personalities
involved in the high-profile and well-publicized cases were prosecuted, much
less convicted and sent to jail. That includes the various corruption scandals
surrounding Arroyo's administration and family members.
For instance, the president's husband, Jose Miguel Arroyo, has been linked by
the opposition to various corruption scandals, including the $329 million ZTE
broadband contract that Arroyo was forced to cancel last year on charges her
government received under-the-table kickbacks on the Chinese government deal.
Then there was the 728 million pesos in fertilizer funds, which were allegedly
diverted to "ghost foundations and urban congressional districts" before the
2004 elections. The opposition tagged agriculture under secretary Jocelyn
Bolante, a known close ally of the first family, as the point person in the
plan to divert fertilizer money to administration lawmakers, governors and
mayors, including city mayors who had no agriculture in their administrative
areas, to support Arroyo's reelection.
Bolante was cited for contempt by the senate after he snubbed hearings on at
least five occasions and further added to the mystery after he fled to the US
two years ago, allegedly to seek political asylum, but only to have his visa
canceled by the US Embassy in Manila while he was on route from Seoul to Los
Angeles. His present location is still a mystery.
The president, however, did not escape unscathed and devoted considerable time
explaining her legitimacy after the "Hello Garci" scandal in which a
wire-tapped conversation between her and an election official seemed to point
to her involvement in manipulating the outcome of the 2004 election, which she
won. Her long silence, then subsequent apology mentioning electoral fraud,
added fuel to the controversy.
Her administration's one touted victory against corruption, last year's
conviction of disgraced former president Joseph Estrada, who was ousted from
power on corruption charges that led to then vice president Arroyo's rise to
power, was highly politicized. After his conviction, Arroyo immediately granted
him a full pardon, citing the need for unity and national reconciliation, but
also setting a new high-level precedent for impunity.
A US-trained economist, Arroyo has also come under criticism for allegedly
fiddling with statistics to cast her economic management in a more favorable
light. For instance, she claimed during her speech on Monday that due to her
administration's policies, irrigated land in rural areas is now at a historic
high of 1.5 million hectares. She challenged her nay-saying critics, "That is
fact, not fiction. Check it."
A simple cross-check with the National Irrigation Administration shows that in
1995, 1.53 million hectares of the country's 12 million agricultural lands were
already irrigated. The figure is cited, among other places, in a United States
Agency for International Development-funded project of the Department of
Agriculture.
Arroyo also said, "We are successful in increasing energy self-sufficiency to
56%, the highest in our history." Critics note the bulk of the infrastructure,
such as hydro-energy, geothermal and coal plants, was built during previous
administrations, mostly during the Marcos martial law years in the 1970s and
early 1980s and Fidel Ramos' six-year tenure in the 1990s.
Nor, Arroyo critics say, has her government addressed the most nagging
structural problem: education. The Asian Development Bank noted last month that
less than 80% of children make it through Grade 5, a retention rate worse than
Indonesia and Vietnam. A recent national survey showed that 11.6 million
school-aged children and young adults are currently not enrolled in learning
institutions. The Commission on Higher Education, meanwhile, noted that the
majority of college graduates lack the skills and competence required and
desperately needed by the private sector.
Last week, about 80 former cabinet members of four previous administrations,
including a group of her former ministers, issued a highly critical joint
statement highlighting seven curses her administration had inflicted on the
country, namely: a food crisis, worsening poverty, deteriorating basic social
services, corruption, wanton abuse of presidential power and illegitimacy.
Those charges point to the ill state of the nation after seven years of Arroyo
rule.
Joel D Adriano is an independent consultant and award-winning freelance
journalist. He was a sub-editor for the business section of The Manila Times
and writes for Asean BizTimes, Entrepreneur Philippines, Masigasig and People's
Tonight.
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