Peace falls to pieces in the Philippines
By Noel Tarrazona
ZAMBOANGA CITY - Will recently concluded democratic elections usher in more war
or peace in the conflict-ridden southern Philippines?
Voters last week gave incumbent governor Zaldy Ampatuan and vice governor
Ansanddin Adiong fresh three-year mandates over the so-called Autonomous Region
in Muslim Mindanao (ARMM), which entails five provinces and rich stores of
untapped natural resources.
The polls were protected by a heavy security presence and were the first to use
a new computerized voting system. Independent observers said the elections were
less marred by violence and
mainly free and fair. Both winning candidates are allied to President Gloria
Macapagal-Arroyo and have vowed to put peace, stability and economic
development on the top of their agendas.
But while voters cast their ballots, a tentative new peace deal between the
government and the insurgent Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) was
unraveling. An estimated 1,000 MILF rebels clashed with about twice as many
Philippine armed forces in North Cotabato province, the seat of the ARMM's
regional government.
Rebels occupied three contested towns and torched hundreds of houses and
properties in the province on learning the Supreme Court had at the 11th hour
issued a temporary restraining order barring the government on constitutional
grounds from entering a memorandum of agreement (MOA) with the MILF, which had
been scheduled for a high-profile signing ceremony in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia,
on August 5. The court convened on Friday to reconsider its decision.
Philippine military sources said MILF rebels have since abandoned the three
towns, though a MILF commander warned that clashes would resume if the
government fails to honor its previous agreement. According to government
authorities, over 130,000 people have fled their homes and the International
Committee for the Red Cross estimates 80,000 are now internally displaced.
The proposed MOA includes provisions allowing for the creation of the so-called
Bangsamoro Juridical Entity (BJE), which after a plebiscite would potentially
give the MILF control over 700 villages in Christian-dominated areas of the
ARMM. The BJE agreement would also give the MILF economic autonomy over the
area's aerial, water, oil and other natural resources.
The MOA's detractors contend that provisions in the draft agreement, including
allowances for the possible establishment of Islamic law in the ARMM, are
unconstitutional. Even if the agreement is finally adopted, it will take
congress at least a year to pass the enabling legislation to hold the
plebiscite, which will give villagers the choice to join or stay outside of the
BJE.
That proposal is already raising the hackles of certain local leaders. Lawrence
Cruz, mayor of Iligian City, has strongly objected to losing any villages
currently under his administration to the BJE. The MOA, as designed, would
usurp 82% of the city's land area and result in a 20% cut in the annual
revenues it receives from the national government, according to a recent Asia
Foundation report.
Other Muslim and Christian leaders unaligned with the MILF have also voiced
strong opposition to the BJE proposal. Those complaints have been dramatized
through recent protests attended by tens of thousands across the region.
Prominent business leaders, meanwhile, have also stated their concerns about
the MOA, including the likely complication of doing business with a de facto
state within a state.
That raises questions about whether a peace deal as proposed will accomplish
the economic development and local trade linkages that will be pivotal to the
ARMM's success. Some have even raised wary comparisons to Kosovo, the
conflict-stricken province in southern Europe that declared independence from
Serbia and is currently in a diplomatic vacuum where it is recognized by 45
different countries, including the United States, but opposed by others,
including China and Russia.
"What the MILF is asking for are the four elements of an independent state,
namely: territory, sovereignty, people and governance. So are we ready to
become like Kosovo, a state within a state?" asked lawyer Arsenio Gonzales,
also a prominent businessman, at one of the protest rallies.
The MILF, which broke away from the Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF) rebel
group in 1981, has since fought violently for an autonomous ancestral homeland.
The rebel MNLF signed an autonomy-granting peace agreement with the government
in September 1996, but the MILF's demand for the establishment of an Islamic
state in areas the group considers to be its ancestral homelands has repeatedly
been rebuffed by the government on constitutional grounds.
Terror twist
The long-grinding conflict has in recent years taken on a significant
international twist. When the US included the southern Philippines in its
global "war on terror", many expected the MILF to be included on Washington's
list of international terrorist organizations. The US tagged the rebel Abu
Sayyaf group as having al-Qaeda links and has provided military training and
assistance to Philippine armed forces to combat the group.
But Washington left the MILF off that list due to Manila's concerns it would
derail their tentative negotiations. The MILF definitely has terror tendencies
and has over the years been linked to the bombing of the Davao International
Airport, public transport trains in the capital Manila and now a scorched earth
campaign against civilian populations in North Cotabato province.
The US Embassy in Manila has maintained that the MILF insurgency is an internal
Philippine affair and must be resolved by the two sides. Yet US diplomats have
played a prominent behind-the-scenes role in recent government-MILF
negotiations. That included US ambassador Kristie Kenney's discreet meeting
this year with the MILF's top leadership.
Local newspapers reported the secret meeting and the US Embassy in Manila has
not denied the reports. Kenney was also symbolically set to serve as one of the
key witness-guests to the MOA's signing in Kuala Lumpur before the Supreme
Court issued its restraining order. Analysts say Washington had hoped a deal
could be secured that President George W Bush could highlight on his departure
from office as a foreign policy success.
What happens next is a wild card. Arroyo had earlier put her executive weight
behind a peace deal, though critics say the drive was aimed at shoring up her
sagging approval ratings. But opposition to the MOA has been strong, with
opposition politicians challenging the constitutionality of many of the deal's
provisions. The Supreme Court heard the first oral arguments on Friday in
hearings to determine whether the MOA has legal basis.
Meanwhile, the risk of sectarian violence between Christians and Muslims is
rising. North Cotabato vice governor Manny Pinol, a Christian, has called on
his constituents to start defending themselves if the national government were
no longer willing to protect them from the MILF. Hundreds of his followers
displayed M-16 assault rifles on live television to demonstrate their resolve
against the proposed peace deal.
That's a strong indication that democracy will not take meaningful root in the
region until peace is fully achieved. Arroyo and the MILF had both pushed to
postpone ARMM elections until the MOA was finalized, but the government lacked
the legal powers to do so. The winning governor and vice governor - both
Muslims - are established politicians from central Mindanao, but it is unclear
whether they have the human touch or MILF connections needed to overcome the
many obstacles still in the way of a peace deal.
The proposed and at least temporarily aborted peace is also being complicated
by national politics. Opposition senators are loath to allow Arroyo a policy
success and have accused her of using the peace deal as cynical justification
to amend the constitution in a way that would also allow her to extend her
presidential term beyond 2010, when, by current law, she must step down.
Arroyo's allies have confirmed they are again pushing for constitutional
change, though they haven't indicated which exact provisions they aim to amend.
Such lack of disclosure is fueling suspicions that Arroyo's peace drive in
Mindanao is actually being driven by ulterior motives and raises the risk that
the conflict outlives her presidential term.
Noel Tarrazona is a journalist based in the southern Philippines. He may
be reached at noeljobstreet@yahoo.com.
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