BANGKOK - While the United Nations heaps praise on Myanmar's ruling junta for
its collaborative spirit in dealing with the Cyclone Nargis disaster, the
military regime has made it clear that cooperation stops when it comes to UN
attempts to mediate a political breakthrough in the country.
UN special envoy to Myanmar Ibrahim Gambari's latest mission to break the
deadlock between the military junta and detained opposition leader Aung San Suu
Kyi ended in failure over the weekend. His ongoing efforts to establish a
dialogue between the two sides collapsed and the diplomat left the country
embarrassingly empty-handed.
Even Aung San Suu Kyi, the charismatic leader of the National
League for Democracy (NLD), refused to see him during this trip, although he
had met her on all previous visits. More crucially, Gambari, a former Nigerian
foreign minister, also failed to meet any senior members of the country's
ruling State Peace and Development Council (SPDC).
"It's clearly the end of the road for Gambari - his role as an interlocutor is
finished if he is unable to talk directly to either Aung San Suu Kyi or [junta
leader] Than Shwe," said a Western diplomat based in Yangon. "He has no more
cards to play."
Gambari's failure raises doubts about the UN's future role in Myanmar's
political impasse and perhaps other conflict resolution efforts around the
world. In an exclusive interview with Asia Times Online earlier this year
Gambari said: "It is our job, and a continuing challenge at the UN to make the
impossible possible, and will continue my efforts at mediation regardless."
He added: "Nonetheless, I sometimes wonder whether it is realized that if I
fail, and the UN fails, this would have negative consequences for the role of
the organization in terms of mediation, conflict prevention and peaceful
resolution of conflicts, not only in [Myanmar] but throughout the world."
Gambari was scheduled to meet Indonesian Foreign Minister Hassan Wirajuda and
the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) secretary general Surin
Pitsuwan after leaving Yangon. The UN had clearly hoped to build on the
goodwill generated from the joint cyclone relief efforts with ASEAN and the
Myanmar government to push its mediation agenda and encourage the junta to make
their planned transition to democracy by 2010 more credible in the
international eye.
With the UN's failure "the ball is now back in Asia's court", said academic Win
Min, an independent academic based in the northern Thai city of Chiang Mai.
"ASEAN and China have been happy to hide behind the UN. Now they will have to
take the lead to try to convince the junta to make their roadmap credible and
acceptable to the region and the international community."
Gambari had prioritized kick-starting the stalled talks between the two sides,
pressing for the release of all political prisoners, including Aung San Suu Kyi
who is still under house arrest, and discussing the junta's roadmap to
democracy and the planned elections in 2010. He is believed to have pressed
these matters on certain government ministers, including the prime minister,
General Thein Sein, on the last day of his visit.
He also passed along a letter to Than Shwe in relation to a tentatively planned
visit by UN secretary general Ban Ki-moon later this year, according to
diplomats in Yangon. "The SG has also indicated his intention to return to
Myanmar, when conditions are right, to continue his dialogue with the Myanmar
leadership," a senior UN spokesperson, Marie Okabe told journalists earlier
this week.
Gambari also met many groups nominated by the regime to brief him and convince
the envoy to endorse the regime's roadmap to democracy, which will culminate
with elections in 2010. These groups included small splinter ethnic groups, a
break-away faction of former student activists and defectors from the NLD. He
also held talks with the government-linked Union Solidarity and Development
Association (USDA), which was responsible for the brutal attack on Aung San Suu
Kyi five years ago and expected to transform itself into a civilian political
party before the planned 2010 elections.
Many of these organizations are likely to stand candidates in the forthcoming
elections, according to activists and diplomats in Yangon. Senior junta
leaders, including the top general Than Shwe, who are all ensconced in their
new capital Naypyidaw some 400 kilometers north of the old capital, meanwhile
kept Gambari at arm's length, as they have done on his last two trips.
Iconic snub
The UN envoy originally planned to meet opposition icon Aung San Suu Kyi at the
state guesthouse on Wednesday, but she did not show up, according to NLD
sources in Yangon. The UN envoy also sent two of his assistants to her
residence on Friday morning, but the pro-democracy leader did not respond.
"She's making a point - that she is no longer willing to be wheeled out like a
circus act just so the regime can convey a bogus impression of 'dialogue',"
according to a Western diplomat based in Yangon.
"Aung San Suu Kyi is refusing to see the UN envoy before he sees a senior
representative of the SPDC," an opposition source close to the detained leader
told Asia Times Online on condition of anonymity. "She feels there is no point
in meeting Gambari at the moment, as he has nothing from the generals to report
or offer," he said.
To certain Asian diplomats, though, Aung San Suu Kyi's actions were an affront.
"It's un-Asian to let the envoy wait in vain for her to show up," said a
Japanese diplomat, who closely follows Myanmar. "It seems unusually rude, to
the extent that it gives the impression of being insensitive."
It will only serve to further undermine Gambari's credibility and strengthen
the regime's belief that Aung San Suu Kyi is "ill-tempered and uncompromising",
the diplomat added. Indeed the regime made the most of the snub over their
tightly controlled media, with one broadcast showing Myanmar government
officials outside her personal residence shouting to her through a megaphone:
"Mr Gambari wants to meet you."
The visit represented Gambari's sixth overall visit and fourth in the aftermath
of the regime’s brutal crackdown on Buddhist monk-led street protests last year
since replacing the previous UN envoy, Ismail Razali, more than three years
ago.
In November 2007, Gambari smuggled out and made public a letter from the
opposition leader that appealed to the country's military leaders to put aside
their differences with her and to work together on national reconciliation for
the sake of the whole country. The disclosure infuriated the regime, who
denounced her and Gambari in the state media for weeks afterwards.
With Gambari's failure, Asian countries are expected to play a bigger future
role in seeking to influence the intransigent regime. The international
community, especially China, had exerted substantial pressure on the junta
behind the scenes to allow the UN envoy to visit the country. He originally
wanted to return to Myanmar before the constitution referendum held in May
despite the devastation caused by the Cyclone Nargis the week before the poll
was scheduled.
In recent months Indonesia has also been trying to develop an international
consensus on Myanmar at several high-level but informal meetings at the UN in
New York. Now a member of the UN Security Council and an important ASEAN
member, the Indonesians have taken a leading role in trying to find news ways
of exerting international influence on Myanmar. Jakarta is also working closely
with China, a permanent member of the UN Security Council, and India to
convince the junta they must make their democratic roadmap credible to the
international community.
"Myanmar claims to have a new constitution and these elections [planned for
2010] will be multi-party elections, but what is important for us at ASEAN is
to ensure that a more credible process is taking place," Indonesian Foreign
Minister Hassan Wirajuda told journalists in Jakarta earlier this week.
Recently taking over as ASEAN's chair for the next 18 months, Thailand, a junta
ally, will also look for ways to nudge the junta.
Thailand's new Foreign Minister Tej Bunnag has just completed a two-day visit
to Myanmar. There is no doubt that Myanmar's roadmap featured prominently
during his talks with the regime. It is presumed he was given a warmer
reception and more candid briefing than Gambari received during his more
high-profile, and most likely, last visit.
Larry Jagan previously covered Myanmar politics for the British
Broadcasting Corp. He is currently a freelance journalist based in Bangkok.
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