PENANG - Opposition icon Anwar Ibrahim's victory in a crucial by-election in
the Permatang Pauh constituency in Penang on Tuesday has thrown wide open the
political possibilities in the coming months. Standing under the banner of his
People's Justice Party (PKR), he cruised to a 15,671-vote majority on the back
of an over 80% turnout among 58,000 voters on the electoral rolls.
His majority surpassed the 13,388-vote majority of his wife and PKR president
Wan Azizah Wan Ismail in the March 8 general election. His showing was always
going to be the benchmark as to whether Anwar could command enough public
support for his bid to move "from Permatang Pauh to Putrajaya", the
administrative capital of the country.
His attempt to use Permatang Pauh as a launch pad for his
coalition to eventually wrest power from the ruling Barisan Nasional (BN)
coalition was one of the themes of the by-election that captured the
imagination of many Malaysians hoping for democratic and economic reforms.
The by-election itself was dogged by the BN's exploitation of the sodomy
charges against Anwar, which in the end did not make much headway among the
voters of Permatang Pauh as Anwar captured two-thirds of the votes cast. He may
also have succeeded in winning about 60-65% of votes from ethnic Malays in a
constituency where the group makes up close to 70% of voters.
Chinese and Indian Malaysian voters in the constituency are also likely to have
voted in droves for the PKR. Anwar has successfully forged a coalition among
disparate opposition parties comprising his PKR, the multi-ethnic but
Chinese-based Democratic Action Party (DAP) and the Islamic party PAS.
The coalition - known as the People's Alliance (PR) - won 81 seats in the March
8 general election while the BN secured 140, thus depriving the ruling
coalition of its coveted two-thirds parliamentary majority. The by-election was
seen as a barometer as to whether support for the PR had risen since the
general election.
It was also a gauge of public support for the BN after a sharp petrol price
hike of 41% in June, though the price was reduced by 6% last week. For some
time now, support for the ruling coalition has been eroding due to its slow
pace of curbing corruption, its divisive race-based policies and its failure to
introduce key reforms to institutions of democratic governance.
Such failures have resulted in the BN's declining moral legitimacy in recent
years. The setback to the BN on March 8, when it secured just over half the
popular vote, suggests that the erosion of its political legitimacy finally
caught up with the decline in its moral legitimacy. Taken together, the BN has
been on the defensive since then, unable to stem the erosion to its
credibility, as reflected in the result of the by-election.
The highly anticipated by-election win thus gives added momentum to Anwar's bid
to wrest power by Sept 16, as he has claimed he will do though parliamentary
defections. The PR already controls five of 13 states in the federation. Still,
it won't be easy to dislodge the ruling coalition, which has governed for close
to 51 consecutive years.
Public relations strategists probably chose September 16, Malaysia Day, for
symbolic reasons. That was the date in 1963 when the federation was formed with
the merger of the Malaya peninsula, Sabah, Sarawak and Singapore. (Singapore
left the federation in 1965.) Anwar is hoping to lure parliamentarians from
Sabah and from the United Malays National Organization in particular to defect
from the BN.
He will now be sworn in as member of parliament on Thursday and the PR
parliamentarians will select him as Parliamentary Opposition Leader. In his
campaign speeches, he had said he wants to look Prime Minister Abdullah Badawi
in the eye when the premier presents his budget address in parliament at the
end of the month.
The by-election campaign was in effect a de facto battle between Anwar, the man
many believe to be prime minister-in-waiting, and Deputy Prime Minister Najib
Razak, who under a transition plan is scheduled to succeed Abdullah in 2010.
That remains to be seen as Najib's star may have faded somewhat after
spearheading the BN's lackluster campaign for its candidate Arif Shah Omar
Shah.
Anwar's campaign itself captured the imagination of many Malaysians with his
twin promises to improve national unity and revive the listless economy. For
the non-Malays, his call for a "Malaysian Economic Agenda" that would make the
country more competitive globally carries with it the hope of a greater
emphasis on meritocracy after years of race-based affirmative action policies
favoring the Malays and other indigenous groups.
At the same time, he has been able to allay the fears of ethnic Malays that
they would lose out if the economic playing field is leveled with minority
Chinese and Indians. "I will defend the rights of the Malays, let there be no
doubt about that, but we will also help the poor of all races if their need
help whether they are Chinese, Indians or others," was his constant refrain
throughout the campaign.
This approach has enabled Anwar to balance competing aspirations and concerns
and build on his political campaign for Putrajaya. But he will first have to
navigate past a mention in the courts on the sodomy charge on September 10
along with a new Anti-Corruption Agency investigation into an allegation
brought up during the campaign by a former friend-turned-political foe.
Anil Netto is a Penang-based writer.
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