ASIA HAND Low expectation premier for Thailand
By Shawn W Crispin
BANGKOK - In early August, former Thai prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra held a
private meeting in Bangkok among his most trusted confidantes to discuss his
next political moves, including his planned flight from justice into exile in
Britain. Provincial powerbroker and political insider Newin Chidchob showed up
for the meeting, but was told by Thaksin to wait outside while the closed-door
discussions were held.
When the meeting was adjourned, Thaksin told the still lingering Newin that he
was "moving too fast" to consolidate his own power inside the ruling People's
Power Party (PPP), according to a source with knowledge of the exchange.
Against that background, Newin made Wednesday's appointment of new Prime
Minister
Somchai Wongsawat a highly fractious exercise, revealing intra-party splits
that could impact decisively on general elections expected to be held in the
coming months.
The elevation of Somchai, Thaksin's brother-in-law and career judge from the
southern region, points to growing weakness and division inside the ruling PPP.
Newin's camp of 70 parliamentarians favored the reappointment of PPP party
leader Samak Sundaravej, who was disqualified from the premiership last week on
a conflict of interest conviction related to his hosting and receiving payment
for a television cooking program.
The camp opposed to Samak - led by a faction of northeastern region politicians
known for its diehard loyalty to Thaksin - expressed concerns that his
reappointment would agitate the anti-government People's Alliance for Democracy
(PAD) protest group, which since August 26 has laid siege to Government House
and paralyzed the workings of government. Thaksin called in the deciding vote
on Somchai's appointment, which after an aborted parliamentary session to pick
a new premier last week, won 298 of parliament's possible 480 votes on
Wednesday.
One government insider refers to Somchai as a "low expectation candidate", but
one with "no history of corruption or misdeeds". He notes that the opposition
Democrat Party appointed him to his post as Justice Ministry permanent
secretary in the 1990s before Thaksin had even entered politics.
Despite the PAD's spirited accusations, Samak was not the pliant proxy they
often portrayed and after Thaksin's mid-August flight from justice the veteran
politician had made moves to further consolidate his own power inside the PPP,
including through an alliance with Newin. Samak is still nominally the PPP's
party leader, though he has said after his conviction that he plans to retire
from politics.
However, few believe he will completely fade from the scene and he is expected
to remain a residual, if not divisive, force from behind the scenes. Samak had
indicated his willingness to resume the premiership after his court-ordered
removal and failed to show up for Wednesday's parliamentary vote.
The intra-party tensions signal Somchai's tenure will be weak and short-lived
and raise new questions about how the electoral chips may fall at the next
elections, expected to be held in the coming months after the passage of the
2009 budget or after the PPP is dissolved on electoral fraud charges, as an
Election Commission ruling recently recommended. Around one-third of the
sitting PPP parliamentarians could opt against regrouping under the
Thaksin-aligned Peua Thai party and could aim to form a new northeastern
region-oriented party under Newin's patronage.
Despite Somchai's conciliatory removal over the weekend of Samak's emergency
decree, which had taken a heavy toll on business and investor confidence, the
PAD has already stated its strong opposition to his appointment and promised to
maintain its encampment around Government House. One government insider
expressed hope Somchai's background as a southerner, from where most of the
provincial protesters hail, might generate some sympathy among the PAD.
However, the protest group has already labeled Somchai another Thaksin proxy
and its attention will be focused on whether he attempts to use his position of
power or connections in the Thai judiciary to subvert the various corruption
cases now pending against his exiled brother-in-law. Thaksin's wife Pojaman was
recently convicted on tax evasion charges and they both stand accused of foul
play in a dodgy Bangkok land deal she conducted with his government now being
heard by the Supreme Court.
Samak allowed those cases to proceed and Somchai's appointment will inevitably
lead to PAD criticism that Thaksin has resorted to nepotism to shore up his
declining political capital and personal financial position. Thai courts have
frozen 76 billion (US$2.3 billion) of his assets and many analysts viewed his
recent sale of the English-based Manchester City Football Club as indication of
his dried up liquidity.
The recent attempt to have a 16 billion baht chunk of his frozen assets moved
from the royally-owned Siam Commercial Bank to the PPP-controlled Finance
Ministry's Revenue Department, purportedly for tax payment purposes, has been
viewed similarly by analysts as a sign of Thaksin's mounting financial woes.
Weakened patron
As Thaksin's weakened financial state becomes more readily apparent to the
PPP's patronage politicians, particularly with the prospect of expensive new
elections around the corner, the perceived to be cash-rich Newin, whose family
business benefited recently from big-ticket construction contracts, including
roadways in Chiang Mai province, will likely grow in political importance and
could decide whether the PPP or opposition Democrats form the next coalition
government.
While in office, Thaksin famously elevated his family members into positions of
power. Most controversially, he promoted his cousin, Chaisit Shinawatra, to the
coveted position of army commander in 2003, leapfrogging him above several
officers who outranked him in prestige and seniority. That particular move wove
dissent among the rank and file and contributed to the top brass resentment
that factored into the 2006 military coup.
He also elevated his own sister and self-admitted political novice, Yaowapha
Wongsawat, Somchai's wife, to head a faction inside his former Thai Rak Thai
party to counterbalance the influence of then powerbroker Sanoh Thienthong, who
now heads a small party of a mere five MPs in the ruling coalition. He arguably
used Somchai, then a Justice Ministry permanent secretary, to similar
divide-and-rule effect.
He locked horns over a ministry budget in 2003 with rising Thai Rak Thai party
star and Justice Minister Purachai Piumsomboon, who as interior minister two
years before launched a highly popular and moralistic "new social order"
campaign aimed at taming Bangkok's wild side and while Thaksin was mired in
legal troubles. Thaksin sided with Somchai on the budget issue and the
straight-laced Purachai was later removed from the Justice Ministry, and after
a short stint as deputy prime minister, left politics altogether.
Somchai's government is expected to stay in place at least long enough to pass
a new fiscal budget, which critics already allege will be designed in part to
build financial war chests for coalition parties and boost the PPP's populist
credentials for the next general elections. With Thaksin's uncertain financial
situation, the budget has become a key bargaining point for the PPP with its
five coalition partners, one political insider says.
The political opposition is already viewing suspiciously a large-scale
irrigation project in the country's northeastern region and alleged recent
mismanagement at the Stock Exchange of Thailand, where Thaksin allies are in
top leadership positions. Those suspicions could soon come to fiery light on
the PAD's nationally televised protest stage. Many analysts express concerns
Somchai's appointment will re-energize and perhaps escalate the PAD's protest
activities.
More fundamentally, Somchai's appointment demonstrates a lack of faith in the
governing abilities of the rural northeastern constituency Thaksin and the PPP
allege to represent through their pro-poor platform. All three top candidates
considered for the post, including Finance Minister Surapong Suebwonglee and
Justice Minister Sompong Amornwiwat, hailed from the Bangkok establishment and
not the poor provincial hinterland the populist former premier purports to
champion.
A similar cynicism was seen in Thaksin's tapping Samak, a former Bangkok
governor with no provincial support base, to lead the newly formed PPP. That
move backfired when Samak disenfranchised the party's northeastern bloc by
excluding them from key decision-making processes and it's altogether unclear
if the reticent and political novice Somchai will be able to hold the now
highly factionalized party's center.
Nor is he expected to hold much sway inside the military, including with army
commander General Anupong Paochinda, who was among the officers which ousted
Thaksin in a 2006 military coup and is known for his unswerving loyalty to the
palace.
In the run-up to Somchai's appointment, Anupong suggested the formation of a
national unity government, presumably including the opposition Democrat party,
as a conciliatory way out of the political morass. The PPP instead stood by its
democratic mandate to rule and as such the end to Thailand's political troubles
are nowhere in sight.
Shawn W Crispin is Asia Times Online's Southeast Asia Editor. He may be
reached at swcrispin@atimes.com.
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