Thai government takes a tougher tack
By Shawn W Crispin
BANGKOK - Thailand's evolving political crisis took another violent turn on
Tuesday when police fired canisters of teargas at anti-government protesters
who had moved to occupy the grounds of parliament the night before a crucial
policy debate to usher in a new government.
Scores of protesters were injured in the pre-dawn crackdown, which marked the
People's Power Party (PPP)-led coalition government's most forceful response
yet to the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) movement. The PAD later
retaliated by temporarily locking parliamentarians in the building and
demanding that the Lower House be dissolved by the end of the day
Newly appointed Prime Minister Somchai Wongsawat, the brother-in-law of exiled
former premier Thaksin Shinawatra, had before the crackdown sent mixed signals
about his intentions for dealing with the protest movement. The PAD has laid
siege to Government House since August 26 and contributed to last month's
downfall of Samak Sundaravej's PPP-led coalition government.
Somchai had promised to negotiate with the PAD and had established a bipartisan
committee tasked with defusing political tensions. He also agreed to take on
board the PAD's call for political change through possible amendments to the
2007 charter.
However, his appointment of former army commander and prime minister Chavalit
Yongchaiyudh as deputy prime minister in charge of security affairs signaled a
possibly tougher tack - which was realized on Tuesday and led to the veteran
politician's resignation less than two weeks into his position. His departure
is expected to undermine the political novice Somchai's negotiating leverage
and authority over the military, which he heads concurrently as defense
minister.
Chavalit, a former military intelligence chief in the 1980s and known for his
army contacts, was a vocal opponent of the 2006 military coup that ousted
Thaksin. His appointment aimed at neutralizing the influence of army commander
General Anupong Paochinda, who was instrumental in the military putsch that
ousted Thaksin.
Anupong broke ranks with the PPP-led civilian leadership last month when he
refused to implement a state of emergency. He has declined to comment on
Chavalit's appointment. Diplomats who had recently visited Chavalit's personal
residence in Nonthaburi liken it to a communications nerve center, with the
former premier tending to at least 10 different mobile telephones.
Since his appointment he had been in regular telephone contact with the exiled
and fugitive from justice Thaksin, according to press reports. According to one
foreign observer familiar with the situation, Chavalit had given himself 60
days to reach a rapprochement with the PAD and achieve a ceasefire with the
Muslim Malay insurgents who since 2004 have waged a campaign of violence
against state targets.
Chavalit took full responsibility for Tuesday's assault, but it is unclear
whether Somchai or even Thaksin gave the final order for the assault. A
government insider said that the decision to use force was taken "collectively"
during an emergency cabinet meeting held on Monday night. "We had to take a
stand ... We had to disperse the crowds to keep the democratic system going,"
he said.
The violence followed the recent arrests of two PAD co-leaders, Chaiwat
Sinsuwong and Chamlong Srimuang, who were detained on treason charges for their
roles in the anti-government group's late August raids on government buildings.
The PAD's siege of parliament was an apparent counter-attack for their arrests.
The government's tough response, one analyst notes, is consistent with the
"iron fist in a velvet glove" approach Chavalit had deployed as a senior army
official while in the 1980s when he helped to negotiate a final peace deal with
Communist Party of Thailand insurgents, who were allowed to reintegrate into
society without punishment.
True to that form, Chavalit insisted after the arrests of Chaiwat and Chamlong
that he would maintain negotiation channels with the PAD's remaining leaders.
After Tuesday's violent events and Chavalit's resignation, those talks are dead
in the water as the PAD moves to capitalize politically on Somchai's use of
force and resume its recently dwindled protests.
There could be more violence on the horizon. The government insider said the
Prime Minister's Office "war room" was monitoring the movement of some 20,000
PAD supporters apparently on the move towards Bangkok from southern Thailand.
He also warned that the group of pro-government demonstrators which violently
clashed with the PAD in early September was set to reconstitute itself at
Bangkok's Sanam Luang royal park.
The new PPP-led government can also expect spirited resistance from the
opposition Democrats, who boycotted parliament in protest against Tuesday's
violent melee. PAD co-leader Somkiat Pongpaiboon also serves as a Democrat
parliamentarian, and after weeks of distancing the party from his protest
persona, more recently party leaders have openly aligned the Democrats with the
PAD's agenda.
That was seen in the arrest last week of PAD co-leader Chaiwat Sinsuwong, who
was picked up after a private meeting with Democrat deputy leader Kraisak
Choonhavan at his personal residence. Kasit Piromya, currently a Democrat party
shadow cabinet minister, acted as a de facto PAD spokesman at a foreign press
event on September 30. He was joined on the panel by Democrat deputy party
leader Korn Chatikavanij, who expressed his personal support for the PAD and
its call for political reforms, including a move towards more appointed
representatives.
One Prime Minister's office official contends that the majority of Thais are
still on the PPP-led government's side, contrary to statements by PAD
protestors who frequently claim to represent the Thai people's will. He points,
for instance, to popular web boards such as Pantip and Prachathai where he
claims 80%-90% of the postings are in favor of the PPP over the PAD - a
reversal of sentiment which favored the PAD in the run-up to Thaksin's ouster.
Public sentiment could shift again depending on how Thais interpret and react
to Tuesday's violent events. In an unprecedented public display of royal
sympathy for the PAD, Her Majesty Queen Sirikit was quoted in the local press
saying that she was very worried about the police's use of tear gas against
protesters.
The Royal Household, the reports said, offered to pay the medical expenses of
the 70 or so injured in the assault. Her comments follow on King Bhumibol
Adulyadej's earlier calls on Samak to refrain from using force against
demonstrators. Thai royalty is by law above Thai politics, but Bhumibol has
intervened at crucial junctures in the country's history.
It's not clear if Thailand is there yet, but a royally endorsed government of
national unity increasingly seems the only way out of the escalating crisis.
Shawn W Crispin is Asia Times Online�s Southeast Asia Editor. He
may be reached at swcrispin@atimes.com.
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