UMNO has stubborn staying power
By Ioannis Gatsiounis
KUALA LUMPUR - The opposition coalition's unprecedented electoral gains in
Malaysia’s general elections in March, and its leader Anwar Ibrahim’s vow to
bring down the government through parliamentary defections have led many to
believe that the days of the ruling United Malays National Organization’s
(UMNO) oppressive, race-based brand of politics are numbered.
Yet since its stinging electoral setback, where the party lost its two-thirds
parliamentary majority but still won the most votes, UMNO has brazenly clung to
its old political ways, banning activist groups, jailing dissenters, stoking
ethno-nationalism, and failing to tackle corruption within its ranks. Critical
websites and
opposition politicians contend that UMNO is a senescent party, crumbling under
the weight of its own arrogance and myopia.
But UMNO’s reform credentials are not the best indication of whether the
long-ruling party can sustain its grip on power. In recent months UMNO has in
fact been met with less resistance than one might expect from a nation that is
supposedly going through a socio-political paradigm shift towards more
democracy and government accountability.
Online media have become a resonant sounding board for the disgruntled and may
sway voters at the next general election, as Prime Minister Abdullah Badawi
publicly admitted it had to UMNO’s detriment this past March. But in reality
calls to resistance have not moved much beyond the Internet, although at least
one prominent and critical blogger, Jeff Ooi, was elected to office under an
opposition banner.
More broadly, online dissent has not generated a formidable people movement
like those seen in neighboring Indonesia and Thailand, which ultimately brought
the seemingly indestructible Suharto and Thaksin Shinawatra governments to
their knees. There is a growing sense that the typically apolitical public here
has become self-satisfied after having voted against the ruling government in
March - as if reform is a one-off affair.
This would put the job of reform primarily in the hands of Malaysia's tiny
pre-existing activist community and the loose coalition of opposition parties
known as Pakatan Rakyat (PR). Activist groups in Malaysia have had only limited
success in checking official abuse over the years. And to date the PR has yet
to put forth clear and comprehensive reform proposals to match its calls for
greater plurality, democracy and competitiveness.
Even if it did, the opposition coalition still has a limited capacity to
counter the Barisan Nasional (BN) coalition, which through its parliamentary
simple majority maintains the power to pass and preserve legislation. That
sense of weakness was seen in Anwar's so far failed ambition to entice 30
parliamentarians to defect from the BN, which would have allowed him to form a
new government. He had earlier vowed to deliver that takeover by September 16
and has since said he is "not in a terrible hurry" to topple the government.
Status quo defender
His takeover dreams may prove even harder to execute now that the embattled
Abdullah has agreed to cede power to his deputy Najib Razak by March 2009.
Najib recently earned the UMNO presidency uncontested, showing signs that he
may have what it takes to unify the fractured party.
UMNO stalwarts may have also felt the need to unify due to fears that an
opposition takeover would open the books on the party’s legacy of corruption.
Despite low public support due to suspicions that he is a Machiavellian
protector of the status quo and his alleged involvement in a number of
scandals, most Malaysians have thus far grudgingly accepted Najib’s de facto
appointment to the premiership.
Many Malaysians are under the impression that Najib couldn't possibly govern
worse than Abdullah and that he might spur a new surge of economic development
that would woo lost voters back into the BN fold. There is also a sense among
the majority Malays that he is a staunch defender of the race, which could move
them to look past some of the controversies that surround his character,
including questions about his alleged association with the brutal murder of a
Mongolian interpreter in 2006.
Others argue that race-based politics that favor ethnic Malays over minority
Chinese and Indians have lost their past cachet, as it becomes clearer to a
growing number of Malaysians the practice has stunted economic and social
development. UMNO under Najib is likely to test that theory and the veteran
politician would be wise to do so. Beneath Malaysians' calls for a more
multiracial approach, racial resentments still run deep.
That is, UMNO's race-based approach may not be as moribund as some have
supposed. And UMNO has historically played the race card effectively through
its firm control of the media, judiciary and finances. To be sure, greater
oppositional representation in parliament means that grip is being tested. But
as the recent arrests under the Internal Security Act of an opposition
politician, journalist and prominent oppositional blogger attest, UMNO-led
Malaysia is still under repressive rule.
And it's a nation still very much split along racial lines - more so in fact
than any time in recent memory, with ethnic Malays fearing how the
multicultural approach now championed by Anwar's People's Justice Party will
impact their livelihoods and the other races more loudly objecting to
entrenched inequality.
The government's ban on the Hindu Rights Action Force in October was met with
very little backlash from the opposition, even though the hardline activist
group played a pivotal role in the opposition’s success among ethnic Indian
voters in March. An UMNO representative, by contrast, walked away with a mere
slap on the wrist after being quoted in the press calling Malaysia’s
ethnic-Chinese community power hungry "squatters". See
Sinophobia smolders in Malaysia
[Oct 1].
UMNO's hunger to maintain power has led the party in recent months to other
desperate measures, including, among other things, accusing Anwar of sodomizing
one of his former aides. Such antics could cost the party, as many have
predicted, or rather demonstrate that UMNO still has the power to get away with
such heavy-handedness. Much will depend on whether the opposition and its
supporters move past merely proclaiming and through actions demonstrate that
the March elections signified an imminent socio-political power shift.
Ioannis Gatsiounis' book on the pivotal events before and following
Malaysia's March elections, Beyond the Veneer, was recently published by
Monsoon Books.
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