Climate change matters; does the UN?
By Muhammad Cohen
HONG KONG - Talk about climate change. The United Nations Framework on
Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) that met last December in balmy Bali
opened on Monday in Poznan, Poland, under misting skies with the mercury
hovering just above freezing. Compared to Bali, the temperature at this UNFCCC
meeting promises to be lower by several measures.
Last year, the issue of global warming was coming off a Nobel Peace Prize
doubleheader for the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and former
US vice president Al Gore. The mandate for Bali was to set a road map to
signing a successor to the Kyoto Protocol in Copenhagen in December 2009. With
some
This year, despite last week’s report that global carbon emissions rose last
year, the climate change issue and the conference venue are both far less hot.
The mandate for Poznan is to continue on the UNFCCC path toward Copenhagen 2009
- the current meeting is fated to be a less-loved middle child.
Full speed, UN-style
Nevertheless, some 11,000 participants, including delegates from more than 180
nations, are descending on this ancient city, once the capital of South
Prussia, over the next two weeks. Their main work is to select the key points
from among more than 700 pages of proposals submitted, helpfully distilled to
82 pages by UNFCCC officials. This meeting will decide the issues to be
negotiated over the next year, leading to a treaty approval and signing in
Copenhagen next December, according the to UN script.
As UNFCCC executive secretary Yvo de Boer, effectively the chairman of the
process, told delegates in his opening statement, "You will need to make
important decisions that will lay a solid foundation for an ambitious agreed
outcome in Copenhagen, to shape and redirect humankind’s further development."
Whatever treaty emerges, by the way, won’t begin taking effect until 2013,
undercutting the urgency the UN tries to give climate change.
Bubbling below the official talks and presentations - and in a gabfest of this
sort, such hot air inevitably surfaces - expect great optimism about the coming
US regime change. Taking office on the eve of last year’s UNFCCC, new
Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd announced his country would sign the Kyoto
Protocol, a step John Howard’s government steadfastly resisted. Beyond that
moment of green glory, Australia proved a tough negotiator during the Bali
talks. Some sources blamed remnants of the Howard administration in the
delegation for the intransigence, but the reality was far more complicated. No
matter who's in charge, Australia plays a major role in feeding emerging Asia's
energy appetite.
For the US this year, people likely to set Barack Obama's environmental agenda
will be plugged in, if not actually on hand in Poznan, but the official US
delegation will be from the George W Bush administration. A breakthrough in US
attitude or action is unlikely in this session.
President of color
Still, there’s hope over the horizon. Obama could be the first green president
in US history. Yet when Obama takes over in January, don't look for the US to
sign on for Kyoto or its successor. As illustrated by the Australian example,
changing regimes doesn't change basic national interests or political
realities. The plain truth remains, no matter who sits in the Oval Office, that
the US Congress will never approve a pact that restricts US emissions while
exempting three of the five biggest carbon sources - China, India and Indonesia
- from mandatory curbs on their emissions.
The UN has its own political reality, but it's more manufactured than organic.
The UN rejects mandatory curbs on developing countries, including China, India
and Indonesia, which constitute the largest bloc of the 192 parties to the
UNFCCC. But then the UN takes it a step further, declaring that its position is
non-negotiable in the name of so-called "climate justice". According to the UN,
every country deserves its fair chance to poison the Earth. That may be fair to
governments but it's awfully tough on the planet.
To its credit, the Bush administration tried to create an alternative to the UN
process that includes the top emitters. Obama may well try to revive the
process. But, no matter the mechanism, with the UN giving them a free ride,
developing countries won't forego fouling the planet, unless the price is
right.
India's Environment Secretary Vijay Sharma suggested last week that developed
countries should contribute 0.5% of their gross national product to the
developing countries to fight climate change and acquire green technology. For
the United States, with an output of goods and services in the third quarter of
2008 topping US$14 trillion, a 0.5% contribution to green the developing
countries would exceed $70 billion. The 2009 US non-military aid budget is
$18.8 billion, so $70 billion is out of the question, no matter who's in the
White House. But the UN's way - or India's way - is not the only way to fight
climate change.
Greening of America
The Obama administration will undoubtedly do things greener than Bush's. Expect
much of the new administration's economic stimulus package to favor green
projects, including the weatherizing - or optimizing the energy efficiency - of
homes, building mass transit systems, and boosting renewable alternative energy
technology. It's clear that any bailout for the auto industry will include
measures to get more high mileage, low carbon cars rolling off the assembly
lines in Detroit.
Obama's team has an opportunity to raise America's consciousness about global
warming and carbon emissions, formerly known as pollution. The "drill, baby,
drill" crowd may object, but if Obama can summon some of John F Kennedy’s race
to the moon pizzazz, he could win converts, particularly within the context of
reviving the US economy and creating millions of green collar jobs. Along with
the glitz, there's the practical argument of keeping billions of dollars at
home: if the current lower prices hold, America's annual oil import bill would
still approach $180 billion. Done right, the issue could be a winner for the
Obama team, leaving a far bigger imprint on the US landscape than the space
program.
Because it's the world's biggest economy and traditionally its biggest carbon
emitter - though China will soon top that chart if it doesn't already - the US
under Obama will take the global lead in efforts to mitigate climate change.
Whatever the president's name and whatever the mechanism, the US will remain a
pivotal player in the success or failure of efforts to combat climate change.
In Obama, the US seems to have a charismatic president-in-waiting who
recognizes and embraces this opportunity for leadership.
Last year, with the climate change issue red hot, the UNFCCC met in Bali, an
island everyone dreams of visiting (with good reason), and declared it would
take the global lead in solving this unprecedented crisis. After a year of
progress only bureaucrats can measure, this year the UN meeting has moved to a
European backwater whose heyday dates back a thousand years. Although
sun-starved delegates may disagree, this time the UN has the venue right.
Former broadcast news producer Muhammad Cohen told America’s story to the
world as a US diplomat and is author of Hong Kong On Air (www.hongkongonair.com),
a novel set during the 1997 handover about television news, love, betrayal,
high finance and cheap lingerie.
(Copyright 2008 Asia Times Online (Holdings) Ltd. All rights reserved. Please
contact us about
sales, syndication and
republishing.)
Head
Office: Unit B, 16/F, Li Dong Building, No. 9 Li Yuen Street East,
Central, Hong Kong Thailand Bureau:
11/13 Petchkasem Road,
Hua Hin, Prachuab Kirikhan, Thailand 77110
