Court brings down Thai government By Shawn W Crispin
BANGKOK - A highly anticipated court decision delivered on Tuesday disbanding
the ruling People's Power Party (PPP) and its junior ruling coalition partners,
Chart Thai and Matchimathipataya, begins a bid to bring Thailand's increasingly
violent and economically debilitating political conflict to a rule-by-law
conclusion. It wasn't immediately clear whether the landmark verdict would have
a calming or destabilizing effect.
The Constitution Court ruled that politicians who had been found guilty of
electoral fraud in last year's general elections, which the PPP won
convincingly, had acted on behalf of their respective parties, and this was
justification for disbandment of the PPP and the other two parties.
The PPP's 20 or so senior executives, including Prime Minister
Somchai Wongsawat, were all banned from politics for five years by the
decision. The party's non-executive parliamentarians will be allowed 60 days to
reconstitute under a new party banner, with most, though perhaps not all,
expected to jettison to the Peua Thai party.
The party's representatives were scheduled to hold a meeting to discuss
strategies at 5pm on Tuesday evening. One party insider told Asia Times Online
that they were proceeding with a "patience" scenario for the time being.
Another senior executive said that the party had backed away from plans to
reject the legality of the decision and challenge the legitimacy of the court.
The PPP announced immediately after the decision that a caretaker cabinet would
move to appoint quickly an interim prime minister and that it was initially
leaning towards Deputy Prime Minister Chaovarat Chanweerakul. The court
decision took a disproportionate toll on Yaowapha Wongsawat's northern faction.
She is former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra's sister and several of her
followers were disqualified from politics.
Behind-the-scenes PPP powerbroker Newin Chidchob, who holds sway over a faction
of an estimated 70-80 members of parliament and who has recently locked horns
with other party factions, will be pivotal in determining whether Peua Thai
will have the numbers needed to form a new government. He is expected to push
for his father, Chai Chidchob, the current House speaker, to take over the
premiership under a Peua Thai banner.
Whether Peua Thai will legally be allowed to form yet another new government is
still in question. Political analysts say that with the disbandment of PPP,
Chat Thai and Matchimathipataya, it is possible that the entire 2007 general
elections could be declared null and void by the Election Commission. Others
wonder whether King Bhumibol Adulyadej will offer any guidance or even suggest
the formation of a government of national unity and reconciliation during his
annual birthday speech, scheduled for December 4.
Analysts and academics have interpreted the revered monarch's previous words of
encouragement to judges before politically pivotal court decisions as royal
blessing for the "judicialization" of Thai politics, an emerging trend
underscored by Tuesday's landmark decision in which senior judges resolve
through legal channels the complex political problems and conflicts the
monarchy has traditionally mediated. Bhumibol turns 81 years old on December 5
and many Thais are anxious about the vacuum of moral authority that will open
on his eventual passing.
Dangerous escalations
Amid a dangerously escalating conflict, in which anti-government protesters,
led by the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD), have for the past week laid
siege to Bangkok's international and domestic airports, Somchai had refused
calls from army commander General Anupong Paochinda and from within his own
party to dissolve parliament and declare snap elections.
With the PPP's legal dissolution, Somchai's insistence on upholding his
government's democratic mandate will be harder to argue for any third
incarnation of Thaksin's original Thai Rak Thai party, which was previously
disbanded.
After the court decision, the PAD said it would allow Bangkok's main
international airport to reopen but that protests would continue. One PAD
insider said via text message that the group's leaders would address the
implications of the ruling for its protest movement on Tuesday evening and
acknowledged that "the longer the airport is closed, the more trouble we have".
A PPP senior executive, requesting anonymity, said they planned to launch a
campaign to reveal the "extraordinary forces" behind the PAD movement so that
people "understand the links". He also said that the exiled and fugitive from
justice Thaksin would take a lower profile and play a "more mysterious" role in
any Peua Thai-led government.
Before the court verdict, there were widespread rumors of a possible judicial
intervention in politics where, through a constitutional loophole, senior
judges might move to establish a nine-member Supreme Council to fill the
political vacuum left by the PPP's disbandment. The proposed council, to which
one in-the-know palace source said various royals had been recruited, would
have the power to appoint an interim prime minister and cabinet.
The Constitution Court's decision against the PPP made no such provisions, but
they could yet be in the pipeline with an Election Commission ruling on the
legitimacy of the 2007 election results. The half-appointed Senate as well as
the Privy Council could potentially play appointment roles in such a scenario,
one political analyst suggests. It's also still possible that the military will
move to forcefully fill the political gap through an appointed body, especially
if Tuesday's court decision leads to more street violence between pro- and
anti-government groups.
Anupong has quietly refused to implement the emergency decrees Somchai
promulgated to give the military extraordinary powers to clear both airports of
PAD protesters. When rumors swirled over the weekend that Somchai, who served
concurrently as defense minister, was preparing to sack Anupong for
insubordination, as he apparently did with the national police chief, troops
and military equipment were mobilized at strategic locations throughout
Bangkok.
Fearing a military intervention, Somchai had established government in the
northern city of Chiang Mai, a PPP electoral stronghold. One government insider
told Asia Times Online and some local media reported that members of the 3rd
Army Division’s 7th Artillery and 5th Special Forces had over the weekend
attempted to kidnap Somchai, but were rebuffed by his personal security guards.
Asia Times Online could not independently confirm the allegation.
What is clearer is that the PPP's remnants and its red-shirted United Front for
Democracy Against Dictatorship (UDD) protest group will fight against any move
that prevents them from forming a new government under the Peua Thai banner.
The UDD blocked access to the Constitution Court and judges were forced to
change the venue for the final hearing to the Supreme Administrative Court, in
another area of Bangkok.
UDD co-leader Veera Musikhapong insinuated at a thousands-strong rally at
Bangkok's city hall the evening before the ruling that disbanded the PPP that
Thai courts were working in league with the military and opposition Democrat
Party to stage what he referred to as a "silent coup". "We could have started a
civil war today, but didn't," said one party insider. "If the military or
anyone else tries to appoint a national unity government, then the Molotov
cocktails will fly. It will be our battle call."
Shawn W Crispin is Asia Times Online's Southeast Asia Editor. He may be
reached at swcrispin@atimes.com
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