SPEAKING FREELY A vote against 'discipline democracy'
By Nehginpao Kipgen
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Shed another tear for Myanmar's (Burma's) swelling population of prisoners of
conscience. In recent weeks, the country's ruling military junta has handed
down prison sentences ranging from six months to 65 years to scores of peaceful
activists, Buddhist monks, artists, journalists and others.
The international community's rhetoric, without any substantive
follow-up actions, has emboldened Myanmar's generals to advance slowly but
steadily towards their seven-step roadmap to a "disciplined and flourishing
democracy".
That included United Nations secretary general Ban Ki-moon's lukewarm reaction
towards a largely symbolic December 3 petition signed and sent to him by 112
former world leaders, including former US president Jimmy Carter and British
prime minister Tony Blair, requesting him to visit Myanmar in the wake of the
recent political arrests and sentences.
Through a spokesperson, Ban responded that he " ... will not be able to do so
without reasonable expectations of a meaningful outcome, which is what we have
been saying all along". Had the same letter been sent by a similar number of
incumbent leaders, goaded on by their respective predecessors, the letter would
have had more impact.
Ban clearly sees the limitations of his office, which lacks any effective
enforcement mechanisms. If he were to venture to Myanmar and return
empty-handed, as his predecessor emissaries have, he would demean the secretary
general's position. The UN's basic calls for the release of political prisoners
and initiation of dialogue with opposition groups, after years of pleading and
prodding, have not been answered.
Meanwhile, the recent spate of arrests and prison sentences has been seemingly
designed to eliminate anyone who could potentially disturb the regime's
carefully orchestrated 2010 elections. In the process, the hardline regime has
sent yet another clear message that it is unconcerned about the international
community's opinions about the legitimacy of its democratic process.
Senior General Than Shwe recently praised the 15-year anniversary of the
military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Association (USDA) mass
organization, which it claims has 24.6 million members out of the country's
estimated 48 million people. Many believe the USDA will soon be converted into
a full-blown political party designed to perpetuate the military's interests.
Meanwhile, the new constitution, passed in a controversial referendum in May,
reserved 25% of seats in both houses of parliament for military members.
Amendment to the constitution, meanwhile, will require the approval of more
than 75% of both house's members, meaning the military will be able to block
any proposed charter changes it doesn't favor. The regime has long taken pride
in having one of the largest standing armies in the region, with over 400,000
personnel, and the top brass' interests are spread far and wide throughout the
local economy.
Myanmar's generals learned a hard political lesson at the 1990 general
election: that any free and fair election will go in favor of the National
League for Democracy (NLD) and other democratic opposition groups. It's still
unclear whether the NLD will be allowed to participate in the 2010 polls; it's
clearer that restricted polls will do little to bring an end to Myanmar's
political problems, as the regime hopes its seven-step roadmap will achieve.
If the NLD is barred, as widely expected, the polls could cause more political
confusion than they alleviate. While the new, likely military-affiliated
government pursues its agendas in a nominally new democratic era, the NLD will
likely continue to lobby the international community to recognize the 1990
elections the military resoundingly lost and stubbornly nullified.
The 2010 elections will bring a transition to Myanmar, even if the new
government is still directly or indirectly under the military. While most
Western nations, including the United States, will either refuse or reluctantly
recognize the result, many Asian governments, led by its ally China and members
of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, will welcome it as a positive
step toward democracy.
It is these conflicting approaches - sanctions versus engagement - that have
over the years given Myanmar's military generals political breathing space and
allowed the rights-abusing regime to survive. Yet a long-lasting solution to
Myanmar's problems will require the participation in an inclusive process of
all groups, not just the military.
Myanmar's political landscape could still be dramatically changed before and
after the 2010 general election, provided that the international community
pursues a coordinated "stick and carrot" approach. If the international
community is sincerely serious about finding a solution to Myanmar's political
problems, it should take actions, beyond letter-writing, that would make a
difference.
A humanitarian military intervention, an adapted model of the six-party talks
on North Korea's nuclear weapons program, or a firm UN Security Council
resolution enforced universally against the regime's economic interests would
all potentially be more effective in bringing democratic change to Myanmar than
military-planned elections.
None of those options is currently on the table, but as the 2010 elections
approach and the military's vision for "discipline democracy" comes into closer
view, its clear the international community needs new policies and strategies
to deal with Myanmar's junta.
Nehginpao Kipgen is general secretary of the US-based Kuki International
Forum (www.kukiforum.com) and a researcher on the rise of political conflicts
in modern Burma (1947-2004).
Speaking Freely is an Asia Times Online feature that allows guest writers to have
their say.
Please click hereif you are interested in contributing.
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