PENANG - A key parliamentary by-election on Saturday that fell to a resurgent
opposition alliance has piled more pressure on Malaysia's premier-in-waiting,
Najib Razak.
At issue now is whether the ruling Barisan Nasional (BN) coalition Najib will
lead beginning in March is capable of pushing through the reforms many believe
are vital for the government's long-term survival.
Najib, who spearheaded the BN's campaign in Kuala Terengganu, capital of the
oil-rich east coast state of Terengganu, was unable to stop another electoral
swing to the People's Alliance, which consists of the three main opposition
parties.
The ruling coalition had won the Terengganu seat by a 628-majority in last
March's watershed general election, which saw
the opposition making sharp electoral inroads by taking control of five of the
federation's 13 states.
This time Kuala Terengganu fell to the Pan-Malaysian Islamic Party, which is
represented in the People's Alliance, by a 2,631 majority. Much of the vote
swing came from young Malays, which some believe spells trouble in the long run
for the ruling United Malays National Organization (UMNO), the dominant party
in the BN coalition.
Although the by-election had no bearing on the parliamentary balance of power -
the People's Alliance increased its share of seats to 83 in the 222-seat
parliament - many saw it as an early referendum on Najib. The deputy premier
will soon take the top job from Prime Minister Abdullah Badawi, following a
leadership transition scheme hatched last September by UMNO leaders. During
that meeting, they effectively pinned the blame for the BN's general election
setback last year on Abdullah.
This time much of the responsibility for the defeat falls on Najib's shoulders.
''If Najib thought he was going to have it easy, this by-election has been a
rude shock for him,'' says opposition activist Medaline Chang, who helped to
campaign for the People's Alliance in Kuala Terengganu.
It is the second time Najib has led the ruling coalition to defeat in a
by-election campaign. Last August, the ruling coalition lost a by-election in
Permatang Pauh to the People's Justice Party, another member of the People’s
Alliance. That result saw the Alliance's de facto leader - and now
parliamentary opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim - returning to politics after a
10-year absence.
Even the use of state machinery, including control over the mainstream media,
which provided lop-sided coverage in favor of the BN, could not stem the tide.
Opposition activists, independent journalists and bloggers provided a
counterweight, using the Internet to expose allegations the government used
money politics to influence voters.
"The great thing about the results of the Kuala Terengganu by-election is that
the old politics of the Barisan Nasional will no longer work,'' says P
Ramakrishnan, president of the social reform group Aliran. ''The past winning
formula - money, media and machinery - could not woo the voters to throw in
their support for the BN,'' he said.
Najib, the son of Malaysia's second premier, Abdul Razak, also holds the key
Finance portfolio and faces a huge challenge as Malaysia's export-oriented
economy slows in tandem with the global downturn. (See
Malaysia's ostrich economics, October 30, 2008.) Weakening global
demand for semi-conductors and electronic products and a slump in global
petroleum and palm oil prices will make this a difficult year, with extensive
job losses expected.
Najib already has political troubles, stemming in part from his implication by
association in the murder of a Mongolian female interpreter. He has vehemently
denied any links to the case, for which two special forces operatives are
currently on trial. Meanwhile, top UMNO leaders recognize that the party will
have to reinvent or reform itself if it wants to check its slide and remain in
power after the next general election.
Najib has asked BN leaders to move out of their comfort zones and build closer
rapport with the grassroots population. He has said that development projects
must be based on the needs of the people - an admission of sorts that many
projects have not been people-oriented in the past. ''The BN government cannot
afford a disconnection between the people's aspirations and the government's
direction," Najib was reported as saying.
But the big question now is whether, after five decades in power, the UMNO is
capable of instituting such reforms, given that corruption, vote-buying and a
system of patronage is so deeply entrenched.
UMNO vice president Muhyiddin Yassin said Najib would have to perform
"political surgery" on the coalition. ''The people want radical improvements
after what happened in the last election,'' he was reported as saying. ''We
must be able to do something that would attract the public.'' He said the party
had to be reinvented and not just re-branded.
But it's not just the UMNO that needs to be reformed. The credibility of key
democratic institutions has suffered under BN rule, with critics claiming their
independence has been compromised to ensure that the BN retains its grip on
power.
Reforms to the judiciary, law enforcement and anti-corruption agencies, as well
as the election commission, are seen as essential to restore the BN
government's credibility.
Outgoing Premier Abdullah says he is determined to push through legal reforms
and he has tabled two bills in parliament - the Malaysian Anti-Corruption Bill
and the Judicial Appointments Bill - towards that end.
A third bill concerning police and other law enforcement agencies rounds out
his promised reform agenda and Abdullah has vowed to see through the bills'
implementation even after he leaves office in March.
After failing to push through such reforms at the height of his popularity
following a landslide general election win in 2004, it's unlikely the BN, led
by a divided UMNO, will have the political will to follow through on such
meaningful reforms, especially considering their full implementation could end
prematurely the careers of many party functionaries and loosen the BN's
stranglehold on power.
''This by-election leaves the BN having to do some deep soul-searching,'' says
Chang, the opposition activist. ''I think they need to look outwards and get
outsiders to provide some frank views, as the people in the BN seem to be in a
state of perpetual denial.''
The next electoral test will come in the form of possible by-elections and
polls for the state assembly of Sarawak, another resource-rich state long
considered a stronghold of the ruling coalition. But faced with a resurgent
opposition, Najib will have to battle hard to restore his and the ruling
coalition's electoral fortunes.
(Inter Press Service with editing by Asia Times Online.)
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