ASIA HAND Abhisit's conservative stripes
By Shawn W Crispin
BANGKOK - Two months since anti-government protesters seized and shut
Thailand's main international airport, a modicum of stability has returned with
a change in government. But the deals new Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva and
his party associates struck to form a new coalition government are raising
questions about the young premier's progressive credentials and doubts about
who is truly in charge of the country's politics.
The political forces that aligned to oppose the now dissolved People's Power
Party-led government - including the military, the People's Alliance for
Democracy (PAD) protest movement and the royalist establishment represented in
business and the bureaucracy - are all ensconced in Abhisit's Democrat
Party-led
administration. So, too, are key defectors from exiled former premier Thaksin
Shinawatra's camp.
The military was apparently instrumental from behind the scenes in cobbling
together Abhisit's coalition and observers believe that the top brass have
since exerted influence over policy-making and appointments. If so, stability
in Thailand will likely be determined more by how Abhisit negotiates
power-sharing first with the military and second with his junior coalition
partners than on how he manages confrontations with the pro-Thaksin United
Front for Democracy Against Dictatorship protest group.
The opposition Peua Thai party, consisting of the remnants of the
court-dissolved People's Power Party (PPP), has been shaken by the defection of
powerbroker Newin Chidchob's camp and is now at risk of splintering further
with the formation of the Bhum Jai Thai party, a ruling coalition member which
will compete for votes in Peua Thai's northern and northeastern region
strongholds in future elections.
Peua Thai stalwarts are divided over strategy and have split into competing
factions, according to one party insider. One faction, led by former Prime
Minister's Office Minister and Thaksin loyalist Jakrapob Penkair, favors
mounting a campaign of instability similar to the PAD street movement which
brought on the PPP's demise.
Another faction, led by Thaksin's sister Yaowapha Wongsawat, apparently prefers
to take a wait-and-see approach and has indicated reluctance to bankroll
expensive street protests. Her less confrontational stance, one insider
contends, has been influenced by the exiled Thaksin's own financial troubles,
including ongoing legal proceedings in Thailand aimed at seizing US$2.2 billion
of his personal assets.
With the Peua Thai-led opposition divided and weakened, the Democrats have
successfully shifted media attention towards the country's fragile economy and
the various fiscal measures they have devised to buffer the blows of mounting
global turbulence. Foreign investors, meanwhile, have acknowledged favorably
the Democrats' upgrade in technocratic competence and coherence over the
outgoing PPP-led administration.
Still, because exports account for around 65% of gross domestic product (GDP),
market analysts say there is little the government can do to avoid a sharp
downturn. UBS recently estimated Thai growth will dip to -2%, a considerable
falloff from the (positive) 2% projection Finance Minister Korn Chatikavanij
has maintained the government's stimulus package will help to achieve.
Whether the collapse in growth and mounting industrial and service sector
lay-offs will provide human fodder for new rounds of political stability is
unclear. If past political alliances are any indication, Peua Thai will have
difficulty finding common cause with disenfranchised laborers.
State enterprise labor unions strongly opposed Thaksin's privatization plans
and vigorously supported both incarnations of the anti-government PAD movement;
the private labor force, meanwhile, is highly fragmented with less than 5%
union membership and, at least in recent decades, has not been prone to mass
mobilization for political purposes. To guard against possible urban unrest,
the Democrats have conditioned certain unemployment benefits on laid-off
workers returning to their home provinces.
Military minds
The opposition will likely have greater success in portraying Abhisit and the
Democrats as the military's willing proxy. While in the opposition, the
Oxford-educated Abhisit consistently criticized Thaksin's anti-democratic
policies and tendencies. He also claimed to be one of the first Thai
politicians to speak out against the 2006 military coup that ousted Thaksin and
since assuming power last December has insisted on his commitment to
parliamentary processes and upholding the rule of law.
That presentation has struck some local analysts as naive - if not disingenuous
- considering the pivotal role the PAD played in catapulting his party to
power. One foreign banker likened the 44-year-old premier's vow during a
presentation to foreign journalists this month to pursue justice for PAD
leaders involved in the airport seizure as a "boy in the bubble" mentality,
considering the military's and royal establishment's tacit support for the
movement.
There are growing indications that Abhisit is yielding to military power. His
early suggestion to roll back emergency rule in the country's three Muslim
insurgency-hit southernmost provinces was rebuffed out-of-hand by army
commander General Anupong Paochinda. Critics claim the decree has provided
legal cover for military abuses, including, according to Britain-based rights
group Amnesty International, the systematic torture of detained rebel suspects.
Many were surprised when Abhisit publicly challenged Amnesty's apparently
well-documented findings. Similar dismay surrounded his quick defense of the
military when allegations of human-rights abuses surfaced this month over the
Thai navy's handling of a group of ethnic Rohingya refugees that washed up on
Thai shores. Some of the refugees claimed in subsequent press interviews that
they were beaten and sodomized by military officials before being released at
sea in rickety boats without sufficient food and water.
Meanwhile, his government's aggressive pursuit of lese majeste charges
falls in lockstep with the campaign of censorship and intimidation first
launched by the coupmaker-appointed royalist government. Abhisit has said
protecting the monarchy will be his first priority as premier and indicated
during a recent press event that he believed there was a concerted political
effort underway to undermine the crown.
The Information, Communication and Technology Ministry has claimed to have
closed down 2,300 web sites for posting materials criticizing the monarchy.
Meanwhile, Justice Minister Pirapan Salirathavibhaga has proposed legal changes
to extend the current maximum penalty for lese majeste convictions from
15 to 25 years in prison and has called for a blanket ban on reporting the
details of specific cases in the media.
The call to censorship is at least partially related to the increasingly
controversial tactics security forces have taken under Abhisit's watch to
enforce the controversial law. The Thai Netizen Network, a newly formed
Internet censorship watchdog, claimed in a recent circular that police have
recently raided lese majeste suspects' homes at night and seized their
computers.
The group claims that on January 14 oil-rig engineer Suwicha Thakhor became the
latest Thai citizen to be arrested at his home in the northeastern province of
Nakorn Phanom. Security officials also raided his home in Bangkok, from where
he stands accused of spreading materials over the Internet defaming the
monarchy. He is still being held without bail, according to the activist group.
Behind the cut-and-thrust is mounting national anxiety over the royal
succession. Some political observers speculate that when 81-year-old King
Bhumibol Adulyadej finally passes from the scene, that the military will invoke
the Internal Security Act - which in times of crises gives the army commander
more executive power than the prime minister - to ensure a smooth and favorable
transition.
Whether or not the top brass takes the extreme measure of suspending democracy
outright in that eventuality will depend largely on how relations with the
Democrats and coalition partners play out in the months ahead. So far Abhisit
and the Democrats have presented themselves as compliant, if not grateful,
reactionary partners.
Shawn W Crispin is Asia Times Online's Southeast Asia Editor. He may be
reached at swcrispin@atimes.com.
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