Page 1 of 2 Democracy plan fuels war in Myanmar
By Brian McCartan
MAE SOT, Thailand - At a November meeting of ethnic minority and pro-democracy
groups in the northern Thai town of Chiang Mai, a representative of the Danish
government development agency DANIDA called on the dissident participants to
take part in the political process inside Myanmar, including support for the
upcoming 2010 elections, or face funding cuts.
Those behind-closed-door remarks were followed in January by a visit to Myanmar
of Danish Development Minister Ulla Toraes and Norwegian minister Erik Solheim.
While officially presented as a visit to observe Cyclone Nargis relief efforts,
several Myanmar watchers questioned whether the delegation breached a European
Union prohibition on high-level visits to Myanmar.
Meanwhile, the United Nations has been wishy-washy on its stance towards the
elections, with Secretary General Ban Ki-moon and Special Envoy to Myanmar
Ibrahim Gambari simply requesting that the ruling generals ensure that the
elections are free and fair. Amid growing calls for Ban to make another visit
to Myanmar, the UN has said little concerning what would make the elections
internationally acceptable or what actions the international community should
take if they are not.
Behind the silence is a growing notion among certain Western governments and
international aid agencies that the junta's controversial planned elections
will usher in a new era of stability to Myanmar. The reality is that the
junta's push to legitimize its electoral process is already causing greater
instability, especially along Myanmar's borders with Thailand and China.
Myanmar's various ethnic-based ceasefire organizations are making moves to
secure their power bases and territory in order to either maintain their
bargaining positions whatever government results from the elections or, if push
comes to shove, go back to war.
The elections represent the fifth step on the military regime's seven-step
"roadmap to democracy". The generals have said that before the elections can
take place the various ethnic insurgent ceasefire groups along the country's
border areas must disarm and become legal political parties. Only once a
"discipline flourishing democracy" has been established, says the government,
will the concerns of the various ethnic groups be addressed.
With a year to go before the polls, ethnic insurgent organizations are being
forced to decide whether to carry on the struggle or become state-controlled
militias. Although Gambari was able to meet with certain ethnic Shan
politicians on his visit in early February, and UN Human Rights Envoy Tomas
Ojea Quintana met last week with members of the Democratic Karen Buddhist Army
(DKBA), it is unlikely that these staged meetings would have given either envoy
a real sense of the dilemma facing many of the ethnic organizations.
For many Myanmar analysts and ethnic leaders there is a real worry that a
military showdown is brewing between the generals and the ethnic groups that
could tilt the region towards fighting on a scale not seen in over 20 years.
Increased government pressure to disarm has already resulted in increased
fighting along the Thai-Myanmar border as a Karen insurgent group allied with
the junta tries to create more space for itself.
With little faith in the central government and its post-election promises,
many other ceasefire groups say they will retain rather than give up their
arms. Since the first ceasefires were signed in 1989, ethnic armies have
resisted handing over their arms because they believe without them it would be
impossible to negotiate a final settlement on equal terms or protect their
people from a regime renowned for its gross human rights abuses.
The junta's disregard for ethnic group representatives at the National
Convention to draft a new constitution, which was completed in 2007, and the
forced disarmament of several smaller groups has only intensified ethnic
distrust of the generals. Initial pressure to disarm, or at least to become
militias or border guards under the control of Myanmar's armed forces, began
prior to the completion of the National Convention.
That pressure intensified after the controversial national referendum held in
May that approved a new constitution, which paved the way for next year's
elections. The generals contend that under democracy there will be no need for
ethnic organizations to retain their arms and instead that they should form
political parties to represent their minority interests.
Electoral dilemma
Ethnic political organizations are caught on the horns of an electoral dilemma:
if they boycott the polls, their grounds for criticizing the results will be
weakened; by contesting, they will seemingly condone a process which most
observers, including several ethnic leaders, view as a sham. Different groups
are taking different approaches, though all have a common thread: the retention
of arms.
The largest ceasefire groups are based in northern Myanmar, along the border
with China. They include the United Wa State Army (UWSA) with an estimated
15,000-20,000 fighters, the National Democratic Alliance Army-Eastern Shan
State (NDAA-ESS) with around 2,500 and the Shan State Army-North (SSA-N) with
up to 10,000 men, and the Kachin Independence Organization/Army (KIO/A) with
between 3,000 and 5,000 soldiers in Kachin State. The UWSA, NDAA and SSA-N all
agreed to ceasefires in 1989, while the KIO signed on in 1994.
With a large and well-equipped army, wealth derived through legitimate business
as well as drug trafficking, and support from China, the UWSA has historically
played hard ball with the junta. In a move which observers see as a test of the
generals' commitment to their new constitution, the UWSA has recently started
stamping official documents as "Government of Wa State, Special Autonomous
Region, Union of Myanmar" and changed its official office signs to read the
same.
The constitution sets out a "Self-Administered Division" for the Wa and the
UWSA is in effect declaring its rule over the area. The move comes amid
increased tensions following a December meeting between UWSA officers and Major
General Kyaw Pyoe from the Golden Triangle Command based in eastern Shan State.
The general ordered the UWSA to disarm and reform into a government-controlled
militia, a request that was rejected out-of-hand by the UWSA.
Underscoring that authority, a 30-man government delegation led by Lieutenant
General Ye Myint, chief of Military Affairs Security, or Myanmar's military
intelligence agency, was forced on January 19 to disarm when it crossed into
Wa-controlled territory. Ye Myint's main mission, to discuss the upcoming
elections, was instead limited to economic matters. The UWSA has yet to comment
on whether it will participate in the polls, but recent moves to establish a
factory for the production of small arms and ammunition, suggest that the UWSA
is instead readying for a fight.
The NDAA, which is closely allied with the UWSA, has also resisted government
calls to disarm and tensions have since grown with the Myanmar army. Meanwhile,
the arrest in February 2005 and continued detention of SSA-N chairman Major
General Hso Ten, along with several other Shan leaders, has soured relations
and SSA-N troops have since joined the non-ceasefire Shan State Army-South
along the border with Thailand. Both groups are expected to resist rather than
allow themselves to be disarmed and become government-led militias.
In Kachin State, the KIO has declared it will not participate in the elections,
but recently gave its approval to civilians who wish to set up a Kachin
political party to contest the polls. The group has said that it hopes to enter
into a dialogue with a new democratic government. And in the southern Myanmar
areas of Mon State and Tenasserim Division, the New Mon State Party (NMSP)
declared after a recent congress that it will not participate in the elections
and would not disarm. The NMSP has been a consistent thorn in the regime's
election plans, including its move to walk out of the National Convention in
protest over lack of consideration of ethnic issues and a March 2008 statement
stating its opposition to the national referendum.
Several ceasefire group leaders have remained coy about their preparations for
possible hostilities. On the ground, observers describe military preparations
including trainings and increased recruitment, as well as growing apprehension
among the civilian populace. The junta, too, appears to be preparing for armed
showdowns. It has for years increased troop numbers in areas
Head
Office: Unit B, 16/F, Li Dong Building, No. 9 Li Yuen Street East,
Central, Hong Kong Thailand Bureau:
11/13 Petchkasem Road,
Hua Hin, Prachuab Kirikhan, Thailand 77110
