Page 2 of 2 Democracy plan fuels war in Myanmar
By Brian McCartan
near ceasefire groups and recent reports suggest that these troops are being
reinforced with heavy weapons, including 76mm and 105mm artillery and with
specialized troops, including Light Infantry Divisions 66 and 88.
With those movements, reports are spreading along border areas that the regime
may move to rehabilitate various middle and senior ranking members of the now
defunct Directorate of Defense Services Intelligence (DDSI), including former
prime minister and DDSI head General Khin Nyunt. The DDSI was responsible for
brokering many of the ceasefires, but was dismantled amid corruption
allegations in 2004 which most observers saw as an intra-junta purge against
the increasingly powerful Khin Nyunt and
his followers. The former top-ranking junta member is has been sentenced to 44
years and is now under house arrest.
Insurgent officers say Khin Nyunt's rapport with the ethnic groups has not been
equaled by the Military Affairs Security, which replaced DDSI. According to one
insurgent official, Myanmar army commanders have realized that Khin Nyunt's men
knew how to handle the ceasefire groups and have even recently begun seeking
out their opinions on how to bring ethnic groups into the election process.
Their inclusion is necessary to give the elections legitimacy among the
international community and more importantly to bring all of the country's
territories under the generals' nominal control. Yet the only major group which
has so far agreed to the border guard arrangement is the government-aligned
Democratic Karen Buddhist Army (DKBA), which controls territories in Myanmar's
eastern Karen and Mon States.
Economic lures
Viewed by some as a test case for how ceasefire groups may evolve under
Myanmar's new democracy, the outlook so far is not good for stability. The DKBA
was told at a meeting in the capital Naypyidaw in December that under the new
constitution they were to become a border guard force. Under the terms of the
agreement, which has so far not been made public, the DKBA was promised control
over border tax checkpoints and continued concessions for transportation,
logging and other businesses.
Sources close to the DKBA say the move was unpopular because it means handing
over political power over to a Myanmar-dominated regime - a concession which
goes against the founding principles of the Karen's long struggle - and several
officers threatened to resign as a result.
Rather than release statements or make a show of force, the group has instead
concentrated on seizing new territories particularly former Karen National
Union-controlled areas near Myawaddy and Kayin Seikgyi townships across from
Tak Province in Thailand, to gain administrative control over lucrative border
trades, including mining operations and cross-border agribusiness projects, in
the new democratic era.
For all its statements of representing the cause of self determination and
equality for the ethnic Karen people, the armed group is believed by many to be
motivated more by business opportunities, including drug trafficking, it needs
guns to maintain. The DKBA has so far not made any statements about whether or
how it will contest the 2010 elections. Three Karen political parties currently
exist, but none have any connection with the DKBA and only one, the Karen State
National Organization, won any seats in the 1990 election. The election itself,
according to rival KNU vice president Saw David Thakabaw, may split the DKBA
into competitive, business-driven factions.
By playing ceasefire groups-cum-militias against other insurgent groups, the
junta could bid to keep ethnic groups weak and divided while building its new
nominally democratic power structure through elections. Concessions such as the
tax checkpoints promised to the DKBA provide some incentive for joining the
border guard scheme as opposed to renewed fighting. These could yet be strong
economic lures for some of the ceasefire groups, particularly in relation to
tentative deals with neighboring and considerably wealthier Thailand.
Thai Army commander General Anupong Paochinda paid a two day visit to Myanmar
in mid-February where he met with junta leader Senior General Than Shwe,
Defense Minister Thura Shwe Mann and Foreign Minster Nyan Win. It is perhaps
significant that Anupong, rather than Thai Foreign Minster Kasit Piromya,
handled the meeting where border issues were on the agenda.
Several cross-border business schemes are in the works, but have not been
completed due to instability. For instance, an agreement was reached in May
2007 for Thai agribusinesses to cultivate tax-free over seven million hectares
of land in Myanmar border areas. The agreement includes four areas of Mon and
Karen States designated for contract farming, totaling some 300,000 hectares.
Myanmar farmers were to grow under contract cassava, rubber, oil palm,
sugarcane, beans and corn for export to Thailand.
The project appears to have stalled however due to complaints by Thai investors
over taxes levied by Myanmar government officials, as well as the DKBA and KNU.
Conflict over taxes on the corn harvest resulted in fighting between the KNU
and DKBA south of Mae Sot in October and November, sources say. The fighting
spilled over into Thailand on several occasions resulting in the shooting up of
villages, burning of food storage barns, and at least one shootout between DKBA
and Thai soldiers. One Thai soldier was injured by a landmine in the skirmish.
Still the DKBA has been working on new roads leading north and south of
Myawaddy to service the plantations and commercial agriculture projects along
the border. Other cross-border projects envisioned include a border trade zone
at the border town of Myawaddy and industrial zones in Pa'an and Moulmein. The
projects, financed though loans and grants from Bangkok, are designed to curb
the mounting influx of Myanmar migrant workers into Thailand, now estimated at
over 2 million people.
But while the DKBA is angling for business opportunities, the rival KNU has
resisted Thai incentives to end fighting against the Myanmar army. That's
inhibited the group's armed wing, the Karen National Liberation Army, ability
to fight along the border and allowed the DKBA to seize several of the areas it
formerly controlled. A KNU official told Asia Times Online his group had no
plans for ceasefire talks and that it would not participate in the 2010
elections. That means democracy is just as likely to bring more, not less,
instability to Myanmar's contested border areas.
Brian McCartan is a Chiang Mai-based freelance journalist. He may be
reached at brianpm@comcast.net.
(Copyright 2009 Asia Times Online (Holdings) Ltd. All rights reserved. Please
contact us about
sales, syndication and
republishing.)
Head
Office: Unit B, 16/F, Li Dong Building, No. 9 Li Yuen Street East,
Central, Hong Kong Thailand Bureau:
11/13 Petchkasem Road,
Hua Hin, Prachuab Kirikhan, Thailand 77110
