Falling and rising stars in Indonesia
By Patrick Guntensperger
JAKARTA - With incumbent President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono's Democratic Party
emerging as the clear winner of this month's legislative elections, former
premier and Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) leader Megawati Sukarnoputri
now faces an uncertain political path. Some analysts believe the PDI-P's poor
showing will lead to calls for new party leadership after this July's
presidential polls, which Megawati is expected to stubbornly contest and
ultimately lose.
The official poll results won't be out until May 9, but the unofficial tally
has been clear enough for coalition deal-making to begin in earnest. If the
provisional results hold up, only Yudhoyono's Democrats will have garnered
sufficient votes to nominate its party chairman as a presidential candidate.
The runners up, PDI-P and Golkar, both trail the Democrats by around 6% of the
vote in
provisional counts and will have to join forces with smaller parties to reach
the 20% threshold required to nominate a presidential candidate.
Voters had barely digested early poll results when the first of a handful of
anticipated key coalitions apparently coalesced through a joint protest.
Megawati announced that her PDI-P, along with former soldiers Prabowo
Subianto's Gerindra party and Wiranto's Hanura party, as well as a number of
other smaller parties, intend to file a lawsuit challenging the validity of the
election results.
The legal challenge, analysts say, will have some merit whatever the final vote
tallies. The elections were fraught with difficulties that went well beyond the
logistical challenges of trying to carry out a one-day election across and
17,000-island archipelago populated by nearly a quarter of a billion people. In
some regions, the voters' lists were found to be as much as 27% fraudulent.
The joint challenge, however, has a deeper significance as it signals an
unlikely detente among the PDI-P, Gerindra and Hanura. When coalitions are
formally announced, the chair of the party with the most seats is customarily,
although not by law or regulation, nominated as the presidential candidate and
the vice presidential nod goes to the party chair of the second-highest vote.
With three powerful and ambitious personalities like Megawati, Prabowo and
Wiranto, it is hard to imagine any one of them standing aside as the other two
take a run at the presidential palace. It is just as difficult to imagine
Wiranto or Prabowo agreeing to stand as vice president to a woman who many
analysts and local businesspeople saw as ineffective during her presidential
tenure. Yet both former soldiers' party's negotiating leverage will be weak as
they notched votes in the single digits compared to PDI-P's expected 14%.
There is little likelihood of Megawati, who some say as the daughter of
independence leader Sukarno exudes an air of belief in her divine right to rule
Indonesia, standing aside for another coalition candidate - despite the
perceived stiff odds against her outpacing any Yudhoyono-led ticket in July. It
is notable in Indonesia's personality-driven politics that platforms and
policies aren't expected to be the driving issue as coalitions are formed.
Yudhoyono is now in an enviable position, even though his vice president,
Golkar chairman Jusuf Kalla, had earlier announced his intention to contest the
presidency. With the initial results showing Golkar faring far worse than it
did at the 2004 legislative polls - where it won the most votes - Kalla
suddenly holds a weak hand both inside and outside the party.
Golkar had earlier targeted 30% of the total legislative vote, but is expected
to have received less than half that amount when official results are
announced. Political analysts note that Kalla's personal approval ratings are
dismal, that he will have presided over a downhill slide of Golkar's influence
and electoral success, and that in comparison Yudhoyono's popular approval
ratings continue to grow.
At this point, some say, Kalla's continued leadership of Golkar is far from
assured, particularly considering he hails from the island of Sulawesi, while
all previous Indonesian presidents have come from Java, where about 60% of the
population is situated. Yudhoyono announced over the weekend that he would
consider "loyalty and a lack of vested interests" as his primary criteria for
selecting a running mate.
Some read that as thinly veiled reference to Kalla's vast business interests,
as well as his decision to challenge Yudhoyono before the legislative elections
had even got underway.
Throughout their tenure together - although both politicians and their staff
members denied it - there were consistent rumors that the two frequently
clashed on policy and were often on acrimonious terms.
In his recent campaign speeches in support of Golkar legislative candidates,
Kalla made frequent reference to his strong leadership and ability to make
quick, hard decisions - clear jabs at Yudhoyono's reputation as vacillating and
acquiescent to former dictator Suharto's associates. For his part, Yudhoyono is
known to be considering a motley short list of Golkar stalwarts as potential
running mates.
Golkar, which has formally declared its allegiance to the Democrats, has
suggested, besides Kalla, such diverse personalities as controversial embattled
billionaire and Coordinating Minister for the Economy Aburizal Bakrie, former
Golkar chairman Akbar Tandjung, media tycoon Surya Paloh and speaker of the
House Agung Laksono.
Preliminary polls indicate that Yudhoyono will win resoundingly a second
five-year mandate, likely for a second time at Megawati's expense. With an
expected Golkar running mate, the military-linked party will continue to exert
enormous influence on the nation's politics more than a decade after Suharto -
the party's founder and once spiritual guide - was forced to step down in the
wake of popular revolts in 1998.
The bigger questions now are about the diminished prospects for the
Megawati-led opposition. Megawati, whose initial popularity stemmed from her
opposition to Suharto's heavy-handed rule, has now in the democratic era
apparently allied with two of the former dictator's top generals, one who
stands accused of previously running terror squads, the other alleged by the
United Nations and other groups of orchestrating crimes against humanity during
the chaos that attended East Timor’s break from Indonesia in 1999.
That marriage of convenience could be a tough sale among her supporters and
on-the-fence voters who remember her previous rally calls for democratic
reform.
Patrick Guntensperger is a Jakarta-based freelance journalist and
political and social commentator. He lectures in journalism and communications
at several universities and is a consultant in communications and corporate
social responsibility. He may be reached at pguntensperger@yahoo.ca
(Copyright 2009 Asia Times Online (Holdings) Ltd. All rights reserved. Please
contact us about
sales, syndication and
republishing.)
Head
Office: Unit B, 16/F, Li Dong Building, No. 9 Li Yuen Street East,
Central, Hong Kong Thailand Bureau:
11/13 Petchkasem Road,
Hua Hin, Prachuab Kirikhan, Thailand 77110
