Indonesia scrambles for a president
By Patrick Guntensperger
JAKARTA - Indonesia's legislative election results are in and horse-trading has
begun in earnest that has the potential to fundamentally shift the nation's
political landscape in the run-up to and following the presidential polls
scheduled for July.
The official legislative poll results, announced on May 9 by the General
Elections Commission (KPU), showed that the incumbent President Susilo Bambang
Yudhoyono's Democratic Party was the winner, with 20.85% of the popular vote.
Vice President Yusuf Kalla's Golkar party ran in second with 14.45%, just ahead
of former president Megawati Soekarnoputri's PDI-P with 14.03% of the vote.
The official results mirror what preliminary polls and political analysts had
predicted. The big three together won nearly 50% of the total vote,
underscoring their electoral dominance among the
37 competing parties. Although the polls were marred by shoddy vote counts,
data inconsistencies and the need for recounts in several regencies in North
Maluku province, the KPU has said the results are valid.
KPU member I Gusti Putu Artha was quoted as saying, "Despite various data
inaccuracies, the KPU will stick to its decision." This will doubtless heighten
the controversy sparked by a loose coalition of parties, led by PDI-P, which
have announced plans to legally challenge the results. That, some analysts say,
could weaken the democratic mandate of the new parliament and the future
president.
How vigorous the challenge is will depend largely on how the new coalitions are
built. Kalla and former army commander Wiranto, whose Hanura party took 3.77%
of the popular vote, were the first to register as presidential and
vice-presidential candidates. The rest of the field is still in motion, but
some surprising alliances could be in the offing.
There has been acknowledgment of behind-the-scenes talks between Yudhoyono's
Democrats and Megawati's PDI-P, and party representatives have publicly
announced the possibility of a "grand coalition". If formed would this be a
heavy favorite to win the presidential polls, as it would include two of the
top three parties. Such an alliance would also ensure that Yudhoyono had an
overwhelming voting block in parliament he could use to push through favored
legislation.
But Yudhoyono and Megawati have been at loggerheads ever since Yudhoyono broke
away from the former president's cabinet to pursue and eventually win the
presidency in 2004. While Yudhoyono has said that the antagonism is entirely on
Megawati's side, the stand-off appears mutual as the palace and Megawati's
handlers have ensured that the two never appeared in the same place at the same
time over the last five years.
While a Democrat-PDI-P coalition doesn't necessarily mean that the two leaders
would join forces as a presidential-vice-presidential ticket, Indonesian
coalitions are traditionally sealed by the two parties nominating their leaders
as candidates, with the leader of the more popular party going for the top post
and the other second in command. Even after the discussions were acknowledged,
most political analysts found it difficult to envision the two in a
presidential-vice-presidential pairing.
Such a pairing would also leave emerging political star and former soldier
Prabowo, the charismatic leader of the newly formed Gerindra party - which won
4.6% of the vote - out in the political cold. He had recently been touted as a
possible running mate to former president Megawati, and a coalition between the
two parties was seen as virtually inevitable. That equation may have changed
after PDI-P officially finished third, which means it needs to pursue a radical
political realignment to avoid remaining in the opposition for another five
years.
The now-registered Kalla-Wiranto ticket seems on the surface a likelier
political match. Kalla, recognized for his role in negotiating a peace deal
which has held in formerly insurgency-prone Aceh, and well-respected for a
number of other significant contributions during his vice presidency, has now
formally broken his and potentially Golkar's alliance with Yudhoyono. The
former soldier Wiranto stands accused by the United Nations and others of
crimes against humanity and his on-the-record statements as a politician raise
concerns about his reform credentials.
Yet Kalla faces a sufficiently large Golkar faction that opposes his pairing
with Wiranto. This threatens to erupt into a full-blown party schism along
partisan lines. Kalla's continued chairmanship of the party is also not
assured, with a vocal faction blaming him in particular for the Golkar's
declining popularity. Analysts say it is a distinct possibility that a
breakaway camp inside the party could try and establish an alternative ticket
without Kalla.
The formation of coalitions in Indonesia's context is doubly important: first
to win votes for both parties represented on a presidential ticket, and
secondly to shore up support for executive launched policies from members of
the House of Representatives (DPR) loyal to the vice president's party.
Although the president and vice president retain their party affiliations, they
nominally govern independent of them.
It is therefore still theoretically possible for the Democrats and the PDI-P to
form a coalition while the two parties' leaders face off in a presidential
battle, each with his or her own running mate. In that unprecedented scenario,
Prabowo would potentially be back in play as Megawati's vice presidential
candidate, while the opinion poll leader Yudhoyono would need to find his own
high-profile running mate.
Some political analysts suggest he could reach out to the anti-Kalla camp
inside Golkar and offer the vice presidency to any number of party stalwarts,
including Fadel Muhammad, the popular governor of Gorontalo province. Another
possibility is the well-respected and politically independent finance minister
Sri Mulyani Indawati, who was recently listed by Forbes magazine as one of the
most powerful women in the world.
Such a choice would add heft to Yudhoyono's counter-corruption credentials, a
key political selling point among many Indonesian voters. Mulyani has earned
countless enemies within the bureaucracy for her uncompromising war on
corruption in the departments under her auspices, including inside the
notoriously wayward tax department. Her financial management is also highly
regarded among the foreign investment community.
Other possibilities run the political spectrum, from the man-of-the-people
Sultan of Yogyakarta, Hamengkubuwono X, who was previously touted as a possible
Megawati running-mate, to a number of Islamist party leaders who saw their
support diminish in the legislative elections but continue to campaign on a
clean politics ticket.
True to Indonesia's political customs, Yudhoyono's highly anticipated choice is
expected to be driven more by political expediency than any ideological
commitment. As new political power lines are drawn, it is notable that few
candidates are campaigning on platforms, policies or how they would govern
differently than the incumbents.
Despite a decade of democracy and give-and-take horse trading, the betrayal of
former mentors and intra-party mutinies are still common in politics in this
wildly diverse country. Indonesian voters thrive on the drama, machinations and
personalities, with few calls for coherent policy promises from their
candidates. Indonesia's next president, it inevitably seems, will rise in the
same context through the same means.
Patrick Guntensperger is a Jakarta-based freelance journalist and
political and social commentator. He lectures in journalism and communications
at several universities and is a consultant in communications and corporate
social responsibility. He may be reached at pguntensperger@yahoo.ca
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