MANILA - With candidates jockeying for position ahead of next year's Philippine
presidential polls, frontrunner and incumbent Vice President Noli de Castro is
quietly moving to distance himself from Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo's
scandal-tainted administration, with indications he intends to lead a new
corporate-backed political party.
De Castro is the only Arroyo ally with a realistic chance at the polls and he
narrowly tops recent opinion surveys of presidential preferences. A Social
Weather Station (SWS) survey conducted in February showed 27% of those polled
wanted de Castro to succeed Arroyo at next year's polls. He was closely
followed by opposition candidates Manuel Villar Jr with 26% and Loren
Legarda with 25%. De Castro also recently topped a Pulse Asia survey.
De Castro first gained national attention as a broadcast journalist through his
hard-hitting radio program, Kabayan. Through his reporting he gained a
reputation for independence and he is the first elected vice president without
a political party affiliation.
Under Arroyo, he has managed to dodge the controversies and scandals that have
plagued her government.
Until now he had kept a low political profile and concentrated on key public
services, such as helping overseas workers in need and handling the
government's housing program. De Castro is the only candidate directly linked
to Arroyo and some analysts believe that association could dampen his chances
once election campaigns and the inevitable opposition mudslinging begin in full
swing.
Arroyo's current approval ratings are dismal, ranking the worst among the four
administrations after the fall of Ferdinand Marcos' authoritarian regime in
1986. That poor sentiment has been reflected in recent election results. During
the 2007 senate elections, for instance, Arroyo-linked candidates won only
three of 12 seats up for grabs, even though the government line-up consisted of
several popular television celebrities.
Arroyo's image, some analysts say, has never recovered from opposition
allegations that she had the 2004 polls rigged in her favor. Her administration
has nonetheless floated various other candidates to contest the presidential
polls, despite the slim electoral chances they face, judging by opinion polls.
Some have been forwarded to please long-time and loyal political supporters.
However, Arroyo allies are now scrambling to downplay fears that de Castro will
resign earlier from the administration amid reports that a new party, Ako
Mismo, will be launched this month as a political vehicle for him to secure the
presidency.
Tony Gatmaitan, executive director of the Political Economic Applied Research
Foundation, said over the weekend that the new party would be backed by a
"major group" headed by businessman Manuel Pangilinan, chairman of the
Philippine Long Distance Telephone, the Philippines' largest telecom group.
Pangilinan's financial support, insiders say, has been sought by all of the
major political parties.
Recent ad campaigns for Ako Mismo, which have promoted clean governance and
Philippine nationalism, have fueled speculation that Pangilinan is positioning
himself as a power-broker for the 2010 elections, similar to the role played by
business tycoon Eduardo Danding Cojuangco Jr in previous polls.
Cojuangco, chairman of the San Miguel conglomerate, is also the founder of the
Nationalist People's Coalition (NPC) party which is officially allied with the
Arroyo administration. However, the NPC's two leading presidential aspirants,
senators Loren Legarda and Francis Escudero, are among the government's
fiercest critics.
Moreover, Pangilinan and Cojuangco are currently locked in a high-stakes battle
for ownership control of the country's largest power firm distributor, the
Manila Electric Co, an ongoing legal dispute which some analysts speculate
could be settled by a new government over which both business leaders
apparently hope to have sway.
Allies and adversaries
Meanwhile, the pro-Arroyo Lakas-Christian Muslim Democrat party and Arroyo's
own party, the Kabalikat ng Malayang Pilipino (Kampi), are working towards a
merger that should be completed by month's end and aims to bolster Arroyo's
chances of securing victory for one of her allies at the 2010 elections. (Under
term limits outlined in the Philippine constitution, Arroyo is not eligible to
run for the presidency.)
Many in the soon-to-be merged party are vocally opposed to de Castro, whom they
view as a political outsider. Others say the party is miffed because de Castro
has spurned their various offers since 2004 to join the party. Last year, House
speaker Prospero Nograles, a Lakas stalwart, said that while de Castro remained
a "very strong contender", the party leadership "might replace him as
standard-bearer".
Influential Lakas and Kampi members are said to be pushing for Defense
Secretary Gilbert Teodoro, an emerging star in the Arroyo cabinet but a
relative unknown at the grassroots level. Teodoro is a nephew of Cojuangco and
once headed his NPC party. NPC insiders say that Teodoro has been groomed by
his uncle as a leader and is now being discreetly encouraged to seek the
party's nomination over the anti-Arroyo Legarda or Escudero.
Also on the administration's presidential shortlist is Metro Manila Development
Authority chairperson Bayani Fernando, one of Arroyo's most trusted aides.
Neither Teodoro nor Bayani register well in opinion polls: Bayani received less
than 2% in recent surveys while Teodoro failed to even make a mention.
Still, Arroyo's allies appear to think their well-oiled political machine can
carry any candidate, even an unknown one, in a crowded race. Political analysts
note Lakas held a similar position before the 1998 presidential elections, when
it fielded House speaker Jose de Venecia as its presidential candidate despite
lackluster opinion poll ratings. He lost resoundingly to the former movie star
populist Joseph Estrada.
De Castro, a former broadcast journalist at ABS-CBN, has so far remained coy
about his plans. All the political maneuvering had effectively left de Castro
orphaned before the Ako Mismo announcement. Without a party he likely would
have had to hitch a ride on one of the major political parties, which would
have likely slid him down to the vice president post again, despite his lead in
opinion polls.
In bypassing de Castro, Arroyo may have squandered her chances of guiding the
presidential succession while also diminishing the scant amount of support she
still has at the grassroots level. According to a February SWS poll, over 60%
of Filipinos were satisfied with his performance, while only 24% said they were
dissatisfied. His so-called satisfaction rating ranked highest among top
government officials, while Arroyo's own rating came in negative.
Presidential political adviser Gabriel Claudio said that de Castro's leaving
the administration was still "highly speculative" and maintained despite all
the contrary evidence that de Castro remained the administration's top choice
for the 2010 elections.
De Castro has remained silent on the issue and recently refused to comment on
speculation surrounding the new party apparently formed for his candidacy,
saying instead that he wanted to concentrate on his official duties and not be
distracted by politics.
But if the administration fails to act swiftly and loses de Castro to another
party, political pundits expect to see a drastic realignment of power in
Congress with several administration supporters jumping ship to parties
perceived to have a greater chance of winning.
If so, Arroyo could soon become a lame-duck leader with over one year left in
her controversial tenure and at the same time pave the way for de Castro's rise
to the top.
Joel D Adriano is an independent consultant and award-winning freelance
journalist. He was a sub-editor for the business section of The Manila Times
and writes for ASEAN BizTimes, Safe Democracy and People's Tonight.
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