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    Southeast Asia
     May 16, 2009
The Fool and The Lady of the lake
By Brian McCartan

CHIANG MAI - Last week, Myanmar pro-democracy leader and Nobel Peace Prize laureate Aung San Suu Kyi received an unusual visit from an American man who swam across a lake to visit her tightly guarded residence. The bizarre incident could be viewed as a well-intentioned, but misguided, do-gooder trying to make contact with one of the world's top icons for non-violent struggle.

Instead, it has played into the hands of Myanmar's military rulers, who were arguably already looking for a reason to keep Suu Kyi under house arrest, where she has been held since 2003. The hardline regime, rather than simply arrest the trespasser and charge him with violating a secure area, has used the incident to arrest Suu Kyi on charges of receiving guests overnight without

 

informing local authorities, a criminal offense in military-run Myanmar.

Khin Khin Win and Win Ma Ma, Suu Kyi's two female assistants, were also arrested by authorities under the same charges. All three are being detained in Yangon's notorious Insein prison, where they were charged on Wednesday under Article 22 of the State Protection Law and scheduled to appear in court on May 18. Suu Kyi could face three to five years in prison if found guilty.

The State Protection Law, which the regime has used to detain Suu Kyi since 2003, stipulates that a person can only be held under house arrest for a maximum of five years, although the regime manipulated the exact date of her detention to add another year to her sentence. Under the law, her term was due to expire on May 27.

According to Aung Din, executive director of the US Campaign and a former political prisoner, "This is the regime's cunning scheme to extend her detention beyond six years." Meanwhile, the National League for Democracy (NLD), the political party Suu Kyi heads and which won resoundingly elections in 1990 but which the military later annulled, issued a statement to the government protesting her arrest.

Suu Kyi's and her two companions' arrests have sparked a new international uproar against the military regime, one that threatens new diplomatic repercussions. On May 14, United Nations secretary general Ban Ki-moon said in a statement that he was "gravely concerned" and called on the government to refrain from taking further action that could undermine Myanmar's national reconciliation process.

Tomas Ojea Quintana, the UN's special rapporteur on human rights in Myanmar, also expressed his serious concern over the arrests. The European Union, meanwhile, issued a statement on Thursday strongly urging her release, while various prominent members of the US Congress and White House called for her unconditional release.

United States Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said on Thursday that she was "deeply troubled by the [Myanmar] government's decision to charge Aung San Suu Kyi for a baseless crime''.

"We call on the Burmese authorities to release her immediately and unconditionally along with her doctor and the more than 2,100 political prisoners currently being held," said Clinton, adding that she would raise the issue with China, the Myanmar government's most important international ally.

Senator John McCain of Arizona said on Thursday from the senate floor that the junta's actions were an outrage and called to renew economic sanctions against the regime which were due to expire later this year. He also called for a "vigorous enforcement" of financial sanctions that target particular junta members and their associates implemented in 2007 by the US Treasury Department.

Under new President Barack Obama, the US is currently reviewing its Myanmar policy, although a State Department spokesman recently said that sanctions would not be removed as part of any review. Many analysts has speculated that Obama may take a more pragmatic stance on negotiations with the regime, in line with his more pro-engagement policy towards adversarial and often rights-abusing regimes.

The mounting international protests over Suu Kyi's arrests will make it very difficult for Obama to justify taking a softer stance on Myanmar. For Myanmar's military rulers, a favorable outcome to next year's scheduled general elections, the first since the annulled polls in 1990, is still its top priority.

The junta needs elections to put its final stamp on power and ensure their continued rule in the name of democratic reform. With a new constitution in place and military connected candidates gearing for the polls, many analysts argue it will be exceedingly difficult to remove the military from power through the ballot box.

Exiled Burmese politicians and Myanmar analysts have widely dismissed the elections as a sham and many foreign governments, including the US and EU have cynically challenged the generals to hold genuinely free and fair elections, including allowances for Suu Kyi's NLD to contest the polls without harassment.

There have been bumps in the road. The regime's recent efforts to coerce ethnic armies to participate in the elections are by all counts failing. Meanwhile, the regime is acutely aware of its lack of popularity among much of the population, most recently expressed in the anti-government protests held across the country which the military finally suppressed in 2007.

The junta has made strong efforts to create front parties in advance of the election, but it is doubtless aware how similar efforts in 1990 failed when the majority of the population voted overwhelmingly for the NLD. The NLD remains a viable political force, albeit weakened due to years of government oppression of its activists and forced closure of its offices outside of the old capital of Yangon. Nonetheless, the NLD and other parties, such as the Shan National League for Democracy, could make a strong showing and pose a threat to the junta's plans if they decide to contest the polls.

The government's excessive reaction to the intrusion on Suu Kyi's residence is directly linked to next year's general elections, some analysts believe. Some have even speculated that John Yettaw, the 53-year-old American who apparently broke into Suu Kyi's home, may have even been put up to the act. A previous unauthorized visit by Yettaw to Suu Kyi's residence last year was reported by the pro-democracy leader to the authorities.

Yettaw is a Vietnam War veteran and practicing Mormon who lives with his four children in southern Missouri, according to reports. He has reportedly told people he was writing a "faith based book on heroism" and was traveling to Southeast Asia for research. Yettaw, who survives on veterans disability payments and some work as a contractor, crossed the lake with makeshift wooden flippers and a five-liter flotation jug. His ex-wife told the Associated Press, "He's not crazy, he's eccentric," and conceded "I have harsh feelings for that man."

According to her lawyer's remarks to international media, Suu Kyi demanded that Yettaw leave and threatened to report him to police stationed outside. In the end, reports claim she took pity on his exhaustion and let him recuperate.

Not all of Suu Kyi's supporters have been so forgiving. "Everyone is very angry with this wretched American," said Kyi Win, Suu Kyi's attorney. "He is the cause of all these problems. We have to blame him. He is a fool."

Yettaw has been in jail since his arrest last week. He was charged on Thursday with illegally entering a restricted zone, a crime that carries a maximum penalty of five years in prison, and breaking immigration laws, punishable by up to one year in jail.

The junta is aware Suu Kyi is the one figure who could unite the fragmented opposition, including possibly the boycotting ethnic groups, despite the fact that she is not allowed under the new constitution to participate in the elections. Her popularity was in evidence during her previous release from house arrest in 2002, when her tour of the country resulted in massive and some say spontaneous shows of support.

The generals cut that tour short on May 30, 2003, with an assault by government-organized thugs on Suu Kyi's motorcade in the country's northwest Sagaing division that resulted in the deaths and arrests of dozens of her supporters.

It seems clear now that the generals are not willing to allow a repeat of that experience by allowing her to campaign for the NLD. The NLD is currently debating whether it will participate in the elections, though many believe that Suu Kyi's arrest will prompt them to boycott the polls.

Whatever his motives, Yettaw's trespassing could not have come at a worse time for the opposition or a better time for the generals. The opposition has seemingly lost the possibility of leveraging Suu Kyi's moral authority and popularity to its electoral advantage.
The military government, on the other hand, will have bolstered its election chances through claims it is following the letter of the law - despite the international outcry to the contrary.

Brian McCartan is a freelance journalist based in Chiang Mai, Thailand.

(Copyright 2009 Asia Times Online (Holdings) Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact us about sales, syndication and republishing.)


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