Vice test nails Indonesian politicians
By Gary LaMoshi
DENPASAR, Bali - It's been just 10 years since Indonesia held its first open
elections after more than 30 years of president Suharto's authoritarian rule.
In that short time, the nation's 175 million voters have matured, making the
world's third-largest democracy a model for Asia and the Muslim world.
Unfortunately, Indonesia's politicians haven't progressed as much as its
voters. Flailing following last month's legislative elections illustrated just
how immature Indonesia's politicians remain. After weeks of meetings to build
coalitions strictly focused on the interests of politicians, rather than
governing, voters will have the choice of three seriously flawed presidential
tickets in the July presidential vote.
Former president Megawati Sukarnoputri holds what is likely a
unique distinction in the history of democracy. As party leader, Megawati has
led her PDI-P (Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle) into three legislative
votes, capturing a lower percentage of votes every time. Yet she has remained
party leader, and she's now making her third run for the presidency. That would
just be folly on the part of Megawati and her party if it ended there. But it
gets worse.
Fingered by fate
Through little fault of her own, Megawati ushered in the reformasi movement
that ousted Suharto's New Order regime. In 1993, she was elected leader of the
Indonesian Democratic Party (PDI), one of two officially sanctioned New Order
opposition parties. PDI became mildly critical of the government under
Megawati, daughter of Sukarno, Indonesia's first president, who was,
coincidentally, overthrown by Suharto.
The empire struck back in 1966, orchestrating a party coup to restore PDI's
former chairman Suryadi at a party congress that excluded Megawati and her
backers. Megawati's faction didn't recognize the result and occupied PDI's
headquarters in Jakarta. The situation escalated when Megawati's side began
staging a series of what it termed "democracy forum" meetings, the biggest
public display of opposition to Suharto in decades.
On July 27, 1996, thugs officially identified as Suryadi supporters - but
widely believed to have been military personnel - evicted Megawati's faction
from PDI headquarters. More than 200 Megawati supporters were arrested and
dozens are believed to have been killed in what's now known as Black Saturday.
The incident made Megawati the symbolic leader of the reformasi movement,
leading to her presidency. Yet even during Megawati's administration, there was
never an investigation of Black Saturday to determine what actually happened,
identify the dead or hold any of the perpetrators responsible.
Few doubt the military, under orders from Suharto, was behind the 1996 attack.
The specialist in these kinds of black operations, and implicated in just about
every category of abuse that reformasi aimed to end, was General Prabowo
Subianto, Suharto's one-time son-in-law and heir apparent. Now the retired
general and admitted kidnapper is Megawati's running mate.
Heartbeat away
Never mind the potential danger of giving this brand of human-rights abuser
renewed access to the levers of power, nor the stupidity of putting such a
nefarious figure a heartbeat away from the presidency, particularly when it's
your very own heartbeat in his way. His presence under the PDI-P banner goes
well beyond the usual Indonesian political habit of ignoring ideology and
policy to create incoherent coalitions. Running with Prabowo, Megawati is
telling her 1996 supporters that they were fools, defecating on the unmarked
graves of Black Saturday victims and rubbing their families' faces in her mess.
As horrifying as Megawati's choice is, her presidential opponents have done
something more despicable. Megawati has merely insulted her supporters and
martyrs whose blood set the stage for reforming Indonesia.
The electoral shenanigans of President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (SBY) and Vice
President Jusuf Kalla pose a greater danger to the country. For all the evil
that the Megawati-Prabowo ticket represents, it has little chance of being
elected. Yudhoyono and Kalla have already done their damage.
The quick count results of legislative voting showed SBY is very likely to be
reelected. Official results released two weeks ago confirmed SBY's Democratic
Party won 20.9% of the vote, up from 7.5% in 2004. Kalla's Golkar party,
founded as Suharto's ruling vehicle, received 14.5%, down from 21.6% five years
ago.
Kalla's folly
To most observers it appeared that Kalla's plan to run for president was
hopeless and that his best option was to remain as SBY's vice president. (See
Indonesia's Kalla faces toughest test, Asia Times Online, April 15)
Even though Golkar under Kalla's leadership had lost popularity, the vote was a
clear endorsement of the SBY administration, and Kalla has been an integral
part of it. The two make a good team. Yudhoyono is deliberative, a general who
never fires a shot in anger, while Kalla is a doer who put his political
ambitions on hold to take over the crumbling family business and turn it into
one of the most successful companies in eastern Indonesia.
Golkar's partnership with SBY gave the party a place in the governing
coalition, a share of the political spoils and the right to claim a share of
the administration's success. The latter will be extraordinarily important
during a presumed second Yudhoyono term. Indonesia's post-New Order
constitution prohibits the president from being elected to a third term. The
Democrat Party has no popular elected figure other than Yudhoyono; as a full
partner in the SBY presidency, Golkar might stake a claim as its logical
successor.
Events were moving toward a reprise of an SBY-JK ticket until egos got in the
way. Flushed with victory and undoubtedly resenting Kalla's assertion that he'd
be a more active and decisive leader, Yudhoyono insisted that Golkar submit a
list of names to be considered for the vice presidency. Kalla took that for the
insult it was meant to be and decided he wouldn't swallow it.
So in defiance of many Golkar elders and undoubtedly drawing the curtain on his
tenure as party leader and a significant player on the national stage, Kalla
embarked on a futile run for the presidency. He's taken retired general
Wiranto, another New Order accused rights abuser (and Prabowo's former boss),
as his running mate and will soon learn that Golkar's brand is more popular
than he is.
We are not amused
Yudhoyono may have only meant to humiliate Kalla, not drive him away. But
exacting revenge underscored a pettiness in SBY, a tendency to take things
personally. In it, there's a whiff of the Javanese royal pretense that he
shares with Megawati. Although it was Megawati who shunned SBY after he left
her cabinet to run for president in 2004, he's let the situation simmer for
five years and made himself a participant in her feud.
SBY's choice of former economics minister and central bank governor Boediono to
replace Kalla on the ticket displays similar hubris, as well his cautious
nature. Yudhoyono ignored his coalition partners to make the choice, confident
that they need him more than he needs them. His partners are mostly Islamic
parties, whose vote total declined from nearly 38% in 2004 to just over 30%
this time. Choosing an Islamist could alienate mainstream voters: many voters
Asia Times Online spoke with said they favored a second term for SBY as long as
he didn't choose an Islamist running mate.
So SBY made a safe choice, a non-politician with whom he wouldn't have to share
the spotlight and would minimize the offense to voters and coalition partners,
compared with choosing the member of a rival party. The choice also fails to
indicate an heir to SBY for the Democrat Party. Boediono's economic credentials
seem useful in a global recession, but he may have been more useful in a more
specific financial role. Moreover, it remains to be seen whether SBY and
Boediono can forge the same kind of complimentary, effective partnership that
SBY and Kalla had.
With the world economy in crisis and so much unfinished business for Indonesia,
this is no time for Indonesia's leaders to be taking unnecessary chances.
Yudhoyono and Kalla could have given voters the opportunity to give a mandate
to the team they obviously prefer. Instead pettiness, ego and naked
self-interest won the day. It's time for the politicians' maturity to catch up
with the body politic.
Longtime editor of investor rights advocate eRaider.com, Gary LaMoshihas
written for Slate and Salon.com, and works a counselor for Writing Camp (www.
writingcamp.net). He first visited Indonesia in 1994 and has been
tracking its progress ever since.
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