Golkar fights for democratic relevance
By Patrick Guntensperger
JAKARTA - Once dominant under an authoritarian regime, Indonesia's Golkar party
is losing its popular appeal in a more democratic era. The party lost
substantial electoral ground at recent legislative polls and its presidential
candidate, Jusuf Kalla, is widely tipped to lose to the incumbent Susilo
Bambang Yudhoyono at presidential polls in July.
While Golkar maintains sufficient momentum and legislative numbers to remain
politically relevant, there is a growing sense inside the party that without
major internal and leadership changes it could be perceived as a political
anachronism by a younger generation of voters at the next polls.
That's because Golkar is still widely viewed as the once all-powerful
military's political vehicle, despite the party's best efforts
in recent years to make its look, leadership and message more civilian. Golkar
was founded in 1964 as a coalition of over 200 non-governmental organizations
and community groups, but was supported, orchestrated and backed by a group of
military generals who were legally required to be apolitical.
When strongman Suharto trumped independence leader Sukarno in 1967, Golkar
swung its support behind the enigmatic general, a hand-in-glove relationship
that endured for 32 years of authoritarian rule. Golkar's military backers
propped Suharto's New Order regime, including through its efforts to manage
elections in his favor and suppressing any hint of political dissent.
With Suharto's fall in 1998, Golkar's monopoly on power was broken and the
party fragmented as different military generals aligned themselves with newly
formed parties or established their own political vehicles. Golkar was narrowly
outpaced by Megawati Sukarnoputri's Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle
(PDI-P) party at the 1999 polls, and there were real fears at the time that the
military might seize power rather than cede power to the daughter of former
independence leader Sukarno and a known Suharto adversary.
Golkar gradually shed its military linked baggage and new political parties in
Indonesia are curiously organized in Golkar's old image, including through
their use of uniforms, loyalty oaths, paramilitary training and even marching
exercises. Golkar recovered at the 2004 legislative polls, notching 24.4% of
the vote to Megawati's PDI-P's 18.5%. But Golkar lacked a charismatic front man
and Yudhoyono swept the presidential polls despite his upstart Democrat Party
notching less than 8% of the popular vote.
Confronted with potential resistance in the House of Representatives (DPR),
arguably the true core of political power in post-Suharto Indonesia, Yudhoyono
took on Golkar chairman Kalla as his vice president in a bid to avoid constant
legislative deadlocks over his reform agenda. Given Golkar's clout in the DPR,
influence in the executive office and still strong grassroots machinery, many
Golkar stalwarts felt as though they were still in de facto control.
Yudhoyono and Kalla were known to wrestle behind the scenes over policy issues,
though in customary Indonesian fashion they denied the charges to maintain a
veneer of serenity on the relationship. Now competing on the presidential
hustings, both candidates are staking claims to particular policy successes,
including the internationally lauded peace deal brokered in Aceh province.
But Kalla's inability to maintain Golkar's position as the leading legislative
vote-getter, dipping from 24.4% in 2004 to 15% in April, and with opinion polls
indicating he will likely lose by a large margin to Yudhoyono in July, has
split the party. While one camp continues to back Kalla, another more vocal
faction is already calling for new party leadership and a change in strategic
direction.
To be sure, ex-Golkar stalwarts are scattered and well placed across
Indonesia's political landscape. That includes representation on all three of
the contending presidential tickets, indicating in one way or another
Indonesian voters will opt for a candidate that is closely linked to the party
of the ousted and discredited former dictator Suharto. Yudhoyono was one of
Suharto's young proteges and came under heavy media criticism for not pushing
harder for the now deceased dictator's conviction on corruption charges.
PDI-P presidential aspirant Megawati has tapped ex-general Prabowo Subianto,
until recently a Golkar advisory council member and now leader of the upstart
Gerindra party, as her running mate. Prabowo was until recently married to one
of Suharto's daughters. Kalla, meanwhile, has tapped ex-general Wiranto, the
former head of the military (TNI) under Suharto, as his vice presidential pick.
Golkar is by those connections expected to exert influence over any
administration, regardless of who wins the polls. At the same time, Golkar
surrendered at April's polls its past dominance over the DPR, falling behind
Yudhoyono's Democrat party and only narrowly edging the PDI-P. Yudhoyono, who
for the past five years has frequently locked horns with Kalla, represents
Golkar's weakest link to the three presidential candidates.
Destined to lose
Certain Golkar faction leaders are convinced that the Kalla-Wiranto ticket will
lose badly in the first round of the presidential polls and are already
lobbying to hold a party leadership convention before the polls. Many inside
the party have pinned Golkar's sliding fortunes directly to Kalla, who they
believe has been outmaneuvered by Yudhoyono and outlived his political
usefulness.
With Kalla expected to be isolated after the presidential polls, party
operatives are already in search of a new high-profile party leader with the
ability to form coalitions and cut deals with Democrat representatives in the
DPR. Other Golkar stalwarts are said to be taking a wait and see approach.
Should the Yudhoyono-Boediono ticket fail to win a clear majority and an
election run-off is required against the second placing one, the outlying third
party which receives the fewest votes will have the potential to play kingmaker
by directing their support base to one or the other of the remaining two
candidates.
If Golkar falls into that position, as many feel likely, the party could use
the bargaining chip of an open chairmanship to curry favor with Yudhoyono. By
elevating a party chairman agreeable to Yudhoyono, Golkar could mend its
severed ties with Kalla and increase the party's chances of winning influential
cabinet posts.
There are a number of candidates known to be queuing up for the job, each of
whom would bring distinct pluses and minuses to the top slot. Former Golkar
leader and chairman Akbar Tandjung is already being touted as one distinct
possibility. The old style politician has been instrumental in establishing the
DPR as the real seat of political power rather than a rubber stamp of the
executive.
Tandjung is also widely credited with rehabilitating Golkar as a political
force after it stumbled at the 1999 polls. He has also been tainted, though
never convicted, in a handful of corruption scandals that some say have eroded
his grass roots appeal. When the Supreme Court acquitted him of involvement in
one particular scandal in 2004, students protesting outside the court were
assaulted by police and riots broke out in several cities across the country.
Another frontrunner for the post is Agung Laksono, current head of the DPR and
Golkar's vice chairman. If he can convince the party's rank and file that he's
capable of consolidating Golkar's factions in the DPR into a coherent voting
bloc, while also working hand-in-hand with the Democrats, analysts believe he
has a good shot at taking over Golkar's leadership.
On the downside, the spectacular collapse of his commercial airline, Adam Air,
is still fresh in local minds after the January 2007 accident that resulted in
the deaths of 102 passengers. That accident and the airliner's appalling safety
record contributed to the ban imposed against all Indonesian airlines from
entering European airspace.
Others believe the charismatic Fadel Muhammad, the current governor of
Gorontalo province, could rise on a new generation ticket inside the party,
though he is still an outsider with the many older party stalwarts. He too has
been tainted by scandal and is now fighting charges of misusing his provincial
office's budgetary funds.
What is clearly lacking on the country's political scene is a new generation of
charismatic and clean politicians. Golkar will undoubtedly remain a major
influence in politics after a new government is formed in October, regardless
of how it fares at the presidential polls. But if Golkar opts to continue
shuffling the same old and tainted personalities into positions of prominence,
the party may yet risk becoming a historical footnote in Indonesia's new
democratic era.
Patrick Guntensperger is a Jakarta-based freelance journalist and
political and social commentator. He lectures in journalism and communications
at several universities and is a consultant in communications and corporate
social responsibility. He may be reached at pguntensperger@yahoo.ca
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