The contested rebirth of Joseph Estrada
By Joel D Adriano
MANILA - There is uneasiness surrounding the political ambitions of deposed
Philippine president Joseph Estrada. Ousted, convicted and jailed on economic
plunder charges in 2001, the populist leader is now contemplating a fresh bid
for the premiership, one that many political analysts believe he could win
faced with a shallow field of contenders in 2010.
Despite his criminal conviction, the former movie star who often played the
role of a Filipino Robin Hood consistently rates high in public opinion polls,
driven by strong support from the poor masses, particularly in impoverished
Mindanao. Estrada is currently in a statistical dead heat with four other
leading presidential candidates, falling just a few points behind Vice
President Noli de Castro and opposition senator Francis Escudero, according to
a recent Pulse Asia survey.
As the global economic crisis takes a mounting toll on the Philippine economy -
including spiking unemployment and underemployment rates of 7.5% and 18.9%
respectively as of April - political analysts believe that Estrada's
traditional pro-poor campaign message could have particular resonance by next
year's polls. The government last month reduced its gross domestic product
growth forecast from 3.1%-4.1% to .8%-1.8%, but said it's confident the economy
would avoid falling into recession.
The economic collapse could provide a political opening for Estrada. Since
becoming mayor of Manila's San Juan area in 1969, Estrada has never lost a
popular election. Estrada won an elected Senate seat in 1987 despite criticism
of his close association with the late dictator Ferdinand Marcos, who was
ousted the previous year by a popular street movement, and alleged foul play
during his term as mayor.
He ran and won on a vice presidential ticket in 1992, though his running mate
Eduardo Cojuangco Jr lost to former top Marcos military leader turned adversary
Fidel Ramos. Estrada won the premiership on a populist wave in 1998 by striking
pro-poor chords in the wake of the 1997-98 Asian financial crisis, which
pinched the Philippines especially hard.
It's not clear yet that Estrada will throw his hat into the electoral ring,
though there are growing indications he could soon formally announce his
candidacy. His feature roles in an upcoming comedy film and anti-arthritis drug
television commercial will put his populist personage back in the media
spotlight, coinciding with the launch of other candidates' campaigns.
Estrada has said that he will definitely run if the opposition can not unite
under a single candidate, a leading position eight different hopefuls are now
vying for. That includes opposition senator Francis Escudero, who just leads
Estrada in opinion polls, but many analysts believe those ratings would change
in Estrada's favor if he formally entered the race.
While Estrada clearly sees himself as a galvanizing figure, some left-leaning
opposition factions oppose his rough-and-tumble image and questionable public
service record, which has been riddled with allegations of corruption and
malfeasance. During his brief term as president, spanning 1998 to 2001, Estrada
was accused of abuse of power and economic plunder stemming from allegations of
insider stock trading that favored his close associates, involvement in an
illegal gambling operation and heavy drinking while on the job.
Character assassination
A more serious charge, currently being heard by a Manila trial court, surrounds
his alleged involvement in the abduction and murder of publicist Salvador Dacer
and his driver Emmanuel Corbito. The two were abducted in Manila on November
24, 2000 and their charred remains were discovered days later in Cavite, a
nearby province south of the capital city.
Dacer was a public relations officer under former president Ramos and
speculation has swirled that he had received documents regarding insider
trading allegations involving Estrada and the local firm B W Resources. Senator
Panfilo Lacson, another presidential aspirant and former head of the
Presidential Anti-Organized Crime Task Force (PAOCTF), along with three former
ranking police officers were pinpointed by two witnesses as the prime suspects
in the double slaying.
Estrada's name was linked by the prosecutors to Lacson, but the court had
earlier dismissed the case for lack of evidence as two of the suspects fled to
the US during the height of the investigation. However, a sworn affidavit
issued on February 14, 2009, made in the US state of Florida by one of the
accused and turned state witness former police superintendent Cesar Mancao, has
implicated both Estrada and Lacson as the double murder's masterminds.
Mancao and police officer Glenn Dumlao were arrested in the US after the
government issued an extradition request. That has been a controversial move
considering one of the case's other alleged principals, Teofilo Vina, was shot
and killed in January 2003 in Cavite province by a lone gunmen after he agreed
to testify against another suspect in the case, superintendent John Campos, who
was killed a month earlier.
Then and now both Estrada and Lacson denied any involvement in the double
murder, claiming the charges are politically motivated even though its Dacer's
family and not the state that is now pushing the case. He has said the charges
have been resurrected by President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo's allies exactly
because his bid for the 2010 polls is gaining momentum.
Lacson claims he is under legal assault because of his unflinching exposes on
graft and corruption in the Arroyo government. He recently scrapped his own
plan to run for the presidency in 2010, citing the heavy cost of campaigning as
the reason.
Should Estrada enter next year's presidential election race, he will likely
face more legal challenges from his political rivals. The 1987 Philippine
constitution bars a sitting president from seeking re-election after serving a
single six-year term. Estrada has said his legal advisers have studied the
matter and concluded that there is no legal impediment on the grounds that he
is not seeking re-election but rather a new, non-consecutive term.
Estrada has steadfastly insisted that he was ousted illegally from the
presidency and that the constitutional limitations don't apply to him because
he wasn't able to serve a full term. He has also said that if Arroyo's allies
move to amend the constitution, allowing her to run for a new term as a prime
minister rather than her current position as president, he will run for
congress to mount a legislative movement aimed at blocking that bid.
Arroyo administration officials are expected to contest Estrada's congressional
bid on the legal grounds he is barred from public office under the terms of the
presidential pardon that released him from prison in 2007. Estrada has
countered that the pardon legally restored all of his civil and political
rights, including the right to vote and be voted on.
The legal sticking point will likely come from a "whereas" clause in Arroyo's
pardon, whereby Estrada promised not to seek public office. His lawyers now
argue that the clause was non-binding and that the more important part of the
legal document was its "dispositive" portion that does not bar him from running
for public office, including the presidency.
The potential for heated and politicized legal squabbles is raising concerns
about political stability among some foreign investors, particularly
considering both sides' proven ability to mobilize raucous street protests.
Foreign analysts note that Estrada's shortened presidency was viewed dimly by
foreign investors due to Estrada's lack of clear-cut policies, perceived poor
economic management and hostility towards media criticism. Arroyo, a US-trained
economist, put in place several business-friendly policies, they note.
It's thus uncertain that a new Estrada-led government would restore foreign
confidence at a crucial juncture for the economy. "There is no doubt from an
international perspective that even the prospect of an Estrada win is damaging
for the country politically and economically," said Pete Troillo, director of
business intelligence at Pacific Strategies and Assessments Inc, a risk
consultancy.
"The country doesn't need another controversy. Its unproductive for a president
already removed from office on issues of plunder to again seek the highest
office," he said.
Joel D Adriano is an independent consultant and award-winning freelance
journalist. He was a sub-editor for the business section of The Manila Times
and writes for ASEAN BizTimes, Safe Democracy and People's Tonight.
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