ASIA HAND Thailand mulls royal succession
By Shawn W Crispin
BANGKOK - Walaporn Salow lights three sticks of incense and prays before a
painted portrait of King Bhumibol Adulyadej, Thailand's reigning and ailing
monarch.
Walaporn and her family are among hundreds of thousands that have descended on
Bangkok's Siriraj Hospital from across the country to wish the 81-year-old
Bhumibol a speedy recovery from illness. "For many Thais, the king is like a
god," said Walaporn in the royally established public hospital's courtyard.
Thailand is in its unique way preparing for the most profound transition in the
kingdom's recent history. The Royal Household
Bureau has in a series of statements indicated that Bhumibol is on the mend
after suffering from symptoms of pneumonia that have for nearly a month
hospitalized and hid from public view the widely revered monarch. Despite those
royal assurances, the Thai stock exchange has fallen sharply in recent days on
market fears that Bhumibol's condition may in fact be deteriorating.
The uncertainty has brought lingering questions about the royal succession to
the fore and raised higher the country's already substantial political risk
premium. Bhumibol has over the past year signaled that his heir apparent son,
57-year-old Crown Prince Vajiralongkorn, should be crowned the 10th king of the
reigning Chakri dynasty, which dates to the late 18th century and continues to
play a strong symbolic and legal leadership role in Thai society.
Recent royal signals have dampened earlier speculation among diplomats and
analysts that Bhumibol would opt instead for his popular second-born daughter,
Princess Chakri Sirindhorn, to inherit the throne. Other speculation that a
regency - led first by Queen Sirikit and perhaps later by Sirindhorn - that
bypassed Vajiralongkorn and reigned while his four-year-old son, Prince
Dipangkorn Rasmijoti, came of age has also been widely discounted - though not
entirely discarded.
A period of national mourning, which will undoubtedly bring the kingdom to an
introspective halt and according to some estimates could last ceremonially for
as long as 999 days, an astrologically auspicious number for the dynasty's
ninth monarch, will likely mark the transition from Bhumibol to Vajiralongkorn.
According to provisions in the 2007 constitution, the head of the royal
advisory Privy Council shall serve as regent pending the formal proclamation of
the name of the next monarch.
How royal authority is vested and exercised during the period of mourning and
between the proclamation, parliamentary approval for and actual crowning of the
next king will be pivotal to future stability. It's not clear to some diplomats
monitoring the situation that there is a coherent plan in place to manage the
inevitable power vacuum that will open with Bhumibol's passing. Bhumibol is
held by many Thais as semi-divine and has served as an overarching source of
moral authority throughout his 63-year reign.
Queen Sirikit is expected to play a pivotal role in assuring continuity and
managing the palace's day-to-day affairs during the transition. The Privy
Council, currently headed by 89-year-old former prime minister and army
commander Prem Tinsulanonda and likely to be followed by former prime minister
and army commander Surayud Chulanont, is also expected to take on heightened
responsibility for royal affairs during the succession process. Some monitoring
the situation believe the Privy Council could announce a multi-year mourning
period to help ease the transition.
Some analysts see a potential risk to that case scenario in light of the recent
politicization of the Privy Council and its top ranking members. The United
Front for Democracy Against Dictatorship (UDD), a protest group aligned with
exiled former premier Thaksin Shinawatra, has during recent street rallies
challenged the royal advisory body’s role and authority.
In particular, UDD leaders earlier this year accused both Prem and Surayud of
behind-the-scenes orchestration of the 2006 military coup that toppled Thaksin
- charges both royal advisors have denied. Some royalists who spoke to Asia
Times Online expressed fears that the UDD could during the succession process
ramp up its protests and criticism of the Privy Council's role in a bid to
complicate the royal succession.
It is notable that despite widespread concerns over Bhumibol's health, the UDD
will go ahead with a planned protest over the weekend to pressure for progress
on a petition it submitted requesting a royal pardon for Thaksin, who fled into
exile weeks before he was convicted and sentenced to two years in prison on
criminal corruption charges in 2008.
Limited protection
Privy councilors are not currently protected by the strict lese majeste laws
that ban any public criticism of royal family members, who by Thai law are
above politics. A motion raised to have those laws extended to cover Privy
Councilors was abruptly dropped for unclear reasons in 2007. Bhumibol said
famously during a nationally televised birthday address in 2006 that he was not
above criticism, but it's unclear to many observers if other royal family
members share the same sentiment.
Government officials said that by mid-year they had blocked over 8,000 Internet
sites that they deemed in violation of lese majeste laws. Those who have
been identified by authorities have been handled harshly. In April, oil
engineer Suwicha Takor was sentenced to 20 years in prison for disseminating
material over the Internet considered offensive to the crown. Suwicha's
sentence was commuted to 10 years after he pleaded guilty.
UDD activist Daranee Charnchoengsilpakul was given an 18-year prison term on
three separate lese majeste charges over remarks she made during a
Thaksin-aligned public protest in 2007. There are currently over two dozen lese
majeste-related cases awaiting trial in the Thai court system,
including a case against Thaksin's former government spokesman and now exiled
UDD co-leader Jakrapob Penkair, according to the estimates of some activists.
It's not clear that any of those cases have even tacit royal support due to a
provision in the law that allows any Thai citizen to file lese majeste charges.
Yet some analysts and diplomats wonder whether the recent trends towards
criticism and repression will accelerate in the wake of the succession - and if
so what that could mean for Thailand's already wobbly democracy.
Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva has repeatedly invoked the Internal Security
Act (ISA) amid UDD protests and if his government is still in power at the time
is widely expected to again invoke the act to guard against instability on the
succession. The newly adopted ISA gives extraordinary discretionary powers to
the military, including the authority to suspend basic civil liberties and
censor the media, in the name of upholding security.
The ISA was invoked on April 12, when UDD protests turned into violence and the
military restored order under the act through the use of force. It's unclear
whether Abhisit or then-First Army Division commander, now Army Chief of Staff,
General Prayuth Chan-ocha, was in executive command during the crackdown.
That's raised questions about who would actually be in executive command when
the succession was eventually announced.
Another case scenario foresees Vajiralongkorn playing a more immediate role
after, as expected, his name is forwarded by the Privy Council as the next
king. In recent years he has shared time living between Thailand and Germany,
where he maintains a residence. Yet people known widely as his close associates
have in recent months more actively prepared for the royal transition,
according to some Bangkok-based diplomats, officials and a senior ruling
Democrat party politician.
They point most notably to the contested appointment of a new police chief
where Abhisit has stumped for one candidate, Pateep Tanprasert, and until
recently the Prime Minister's Office secretary general, Niphon Phrompan
another, Chumpol Manmai, who rose through the ranks during Thaksin's tenure.
Niphon is a former boarding school classmate and known close associate to
Vajiralongkorn. Without explanation he resigned his government post this month
after a second round of voting on the appointment was inconclusive.
One important question surrounding the succession concerns whether
Vajiralongkorn, once crowned, would opt to appoint new members to the royal
advisory Privy Council, which as currently comprised was appointed by his
father and includes several aged members. The 2007 constitution allows for the
removal of privy councilors by "royal command" and state the appointment and
removal of royal household officials "depends entirely upon the king's
pleasure".
Another concerns his potential stance on the pending UDD petition requesting a
royal pardon for Thaksin. Talks between the palace, military and Thaksin's
camp, mediated by a former Swedish member of parliament, continue behind the
scenes of the country's ongoing political struggle between Thaksin's supporters
and detractors.
Vajiralongkorn holds top military ranks in the army, navy and air force and
performed active combat duty in fighting communist insurgents during the 1970s.
In recent years, however, his position has become more ceremonial and he is not
known to have a particular power base inside the army. By Thai law, the king is
head of the armed forces.
The Privy Council, on the other hand, has played a behind-the-scenes role in
recent military reshuffles that have effectively sidelined perceived Thaksin
loyalists and consolidated the power of army commander General Anupong
Paochinda and other soldiers who like him served with distinction in the 21st
Regiment Queen's Guard.
Top army loyalty to Queen Sirikit will thus be pivotal to managing the eventual
transition and maintaining continuity during the long or short interregnum
between Bhumibol and Vajiralongkorn. According to palace insiders, Sirikit has
strongly supported her son's eventual rise to the throne and many expect her to
remain influential even after he is formally crowned.
Whether the monarchy can maintain its current central role in Thai society
after Bhumibol's eventual passing will depend largely on how much of his moral
authority is perceived by Thais to have been transferred to his heir. As one
diplomat asks what many Thais and other interested observers are pondering as
the royal succession draws nearer, "What sort of king will the crown prince
be?"
Shawn W Crispin is Asia Times Online's Southeast Asia Editor. He may be
reached at swcrispin@atimes.com
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