OBAMA ON THE ASIAN HIGHWAY Myanmar up close
By Eli Clifton
WASHINGTON - United States President Barack Obama's attendance at the
Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum leaders' meeting in Singapore
next week will chart a new direction for US participation in Asian multilateral
diplomacy and call attention to the new administration's policy of engagement
with the reclusive military-led government in Myanmar.
Next week's summit between Obama and Southeast Asian leaders, which will occur
on the sidelines of the APEC summit, signifies a major shift in US diplomacy
towards Southeast Asia from the approach of the George W Bush administration,
which focused on counter-terrorism and military cooperation but largely
ignored regional diplomatic frameworks, while China expanded its economic ties
to the region.
China's increasing economic engagement in Southeast Asia has become most
evident in its extensive economic ties to the ruling military junta in Myanmar
and the China-ASEAN free-trade agreement (FTA), which will come into effect in
January.
The Association of Southeast Asian Nations, or ASEAN, includes Brunei, Myanmar,
Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and
Vietnam.
Obama's summit with Southeast Asian leaders will be historic not only for the
renewed US interest in US-ASEAN diplomatic ties, but also in that it will be
one of the highest level meetings between a US president and a senior official
- Prime Minister Thein Sein - in Myanmar's military junta.
The US imposes strict economic sanctions on Myanmar as a result of widespread
allegations of human-rights abuses committed by the military junta.
ASEAN's policy of "constructive engagement" - seen by many human-rights
activists as a justification for conducting lucrative trade with Myanmar - has
been a divisive issue in US relations with ASEAN.
"The policy of ASEAN has been 'constructive engagement' but it was really
profiteering," Jennifer Quigley, advocacy director at the US Campaign for
Burma, told Inter Press Service. "Thailand and Singapore have been making loads
of money off of this."
The Bush administration's policy of strict economic sanctions and no diplomatic
engagement with Myanmar made it difficult to engage through the regional
framework of ASEAN due to its inclusion of Myanmar.
The Obama administration's decision to engage the military junta diplomatically
- while still enforcing strict economic sanctions - has been promoted by the US
administration as both an opportunity for the US to participate in bringing
about free and fair elections in 2010 and to engage ASEAN as a regional
mediator in applying pressure to the ruling junta's leader, General Than Shwe.
"I mean, if we're able to encourage the Burmese leadership to meet in dialogue
with representatives of various aspects of Burmese society, we hope that that
can be encouraged by other nations and by ASEAN, maybe facilitated by ASEAN,
because planning for these elections must be a priority, and how it is
monitored is something to be discussed and analyzed," US Secretary of State
Hillary Clinton told reporters in Singapore on Wednesday.
The Obama administration's new policy towards Myanmar was put on show last week
when Kurt Campbell, the US assistant secretary of state for East Asian affairs,
and his deputy, Scot Marciel, made a two-day trip to Myanmar where they met
with senior junta officials as well as imprisoned pro-democracy leader Aung San
Suu Kyi.
Human-rights advocates have expressed optimism that the Obama administration's
policy of diplomatic engagement with Myanmar could prove productive, but warn
that no concessions on sanctions should be made until the military junta shows
a commitment to credible elections in 2010.
"The biggest thing is the election next year. If [the ruling military junta]
wants to move ahead with this election and have international support then
they'll have to show some tangible results before the election," said Quigley.
"The test will be what the regime can give before the elections next year."
Ultimately, the APEC summit and sideline meeting with ASEAN leadership next
week are unlikely to bring any major surprises or agreements. However, experts
in Washington are pointing to the administration's new emphasis on APEC as a
negotiating forum - it was relegated to the back burner during the Bush
administration. They also see the renewed diplomatic engagement with Myanmar as
a sign that the Obama administration intends to put a bigger emphasis on
engagement with its allies in Asia-Pacific.
"Re-engaging with APEC would have other benefits as well," wrote Joshua
Kurlantzick, fellow for Southeast Asia at the Council on Foreign Relations. "It
would show East Asian opinion leaders that Washington wants to play a more
central role in Asia's integration, rather than just standing on the sidelines
as it has over the past decade."
"And it would demonstrate that the administration understands that form, as
much as substance, matters in Asia - a lesson China understands well," he
wrote.
While a new policy of increased diplomatic engagement in the region will likely
receive high marks both in the US and abroad, the staggering economic growth in
Southeast Asia - its combined nominal gross domestic product more than doubled
between 2004 and 2008 - are on the minds of senior administration officials who
cannot have overlooked the flurry of trade agreements signed by China over the
past decade in the region.
Last year, China overtook the US in becoming Southeast Asia's third-biggest
trading partner - after Japan and the European Union - with US$193 billion in
trade.
"For the time being, the Obama administration's increased attention to the
region should restore some confidence in the US. If the administration can
sustain the effort, this may reduce the sense of urgency in the region to find
a new structure that bends to China's growing influence there, while trying to
strike a balance with a distracted US," wrote the vice president for Studies,
Douglas H Paal, at the Carnegie Endowment for Peace.
Head
Office: Unit B, 16/F, Li Dong Building, No. 9 Li Yuen Street East,
Central, Hong Kong Thailand Bureau:
11/13 Petchkasem Road,
Hua Hin, Prachuab Kirikhan, Thailand 77110
