BANGKOK - Recent attempts by the United States to coax Myanmar's reclusive
ruling generals to open talks with detained opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi
have so far failed to gain traction and could indicate that Senior General Than
Shwe has gone cold towards the prospect of a rapprochement with Washington.
In recent months, US President Barack Obama's administration has opened talks
with Myanmar's top generals, representing a shift from previous US
administrations that relied singularly on
punitive economic and financial sanctions to push for democratic change in the
military-run and impoverished country.
Senior US diplomats have held a series of high-level meetings with Myanmar
government ministers, including with Prime Minister General Thein Sein, in both
Myanmar and the US. The meetings include the highest level contact between the
two countries since relations were downgraded in 1988 when Assistant Secretary
of State Kurt Campbell and his deputy Scot Marciel visited the country in early
November.
Campbell and Marciel were allowed to meet Suu Kyi, who is under house arrest,
but security forces also symbolically detained at least two journalists and
several others believed to be involved with an unsanctioned relief organization
just days before their arrival. While hopes are still rising that Suu Kyi may
be released in the run-up to next year's elections, there is no indication yet
that the junta plans to release the more than 2,100 political prisoners being
held across the country.
Obama's administration has been careful to portray its new position as a policy
realignment rather than a shift, one where sanctions will be maintained but
supplemented with dialogue that offers the junta a chance to improve relations
in return for concessions.
Obama called for Suu Kyi's immediate release at the Asia-Pacific Economic
Cooperation (APEC) meeting held last month in Singapore. He and Thein Sein sat
at the same table during events, though they did not talk. Obama's envoys
meanwhile have called on the junta for assurances that next May's elections are
free, fair and inclusive of the political opposition, including Suu Kyi's
National League for Democracy (NLD).
"The [forthcoming] elections in [Myanmar] could be an opportunity for the
country to end its international isolation, but only if these elections are
inclusive, with the full participation of all political parties," Scot Marciel,
who also serves as the US ambassador to the Association of Southeast Asian
Nations (ASEAN), told a press conference in Bangkok the day after leaving
Yangon last month. "That includes creating the conditions in the run-up to the
elections which make the process credible."
"We feel that there are more than 50 million people in the country who deserve
the efforts of the international community to try to help bring about progress
and we're very committed to that," he added. "Dialogue is not an end in itself.
There has to be concrete results."
There are still few signs that the junta would consider opening a genuine
dialogue with Suu Kyi, though some Myanmar watchers believe they may release
her just before next year's elections. Others acknowledge some tentative
gestures, including the junta allowing her to talk directly with Labor and
Liaison Minister Aung Kyi and to meet various diplomats in Yangon.
"The ball is now very much in [Myanmar's] court," said Sean Turnell, a Myanmar
expert at Macquarie University in Australia after the US-ASEAN summit in
Singapore two weeks ago. "Obama's hand has been extended. Will they respond in
kind or with the clenched fist?"
Past failures
This is where previous efforts to engage the regime, including those led by the
United Nations, have come undone. Far too often, the key aim of those efforts
was to free Suu Kyi from detention, with lip service given to the release of
all political prisoners. UN envoy to Myanmar Razali Ismail saw Suu Kyi's
short-lived release in May 2002, in which he played an instrumental role behind
the scenes, as the main point of his mission.
If the US follows the same strategy, their efforts to start a dialogue between
Suu Kyi and the generals are unlikely to fare any better than the numerous
attempts largely led by the UN over the past two decades. "The US must decide
whether their intervention is to free Aung San Suu Kyi, or help make the
situation for the vast majority better than it was," a senior editor at a news
journal in Yangon said on condition of anonymity.
"The two sides are on entirely different wavelengths and there is a huge amount
of mutual distrust," said Thant Myint U, a former UN official and author of the
award-winning book on Myanmar, A River of Lost Footsteps. "At best we're
at a confidence-building stage. If we aim for a breakthrough on the most
difficult issues - such as relations between the junta and Daw Aung San Suu Kyi
- I'm afraid we're bound for a big disappointment."
Time for a breakthrough is running short, with elections to be held next year,
and changes to the constitution approved in last year's sham referendum are
apparently out of the question. Unless there are significant incentives for the
junta leaders to appease the Americans, analysts say, it may be too late to
influence what happens in the months ahead.
"Than Shwe may feel there is no need to make any concessions, unless he wants
to please the Americans," according to former British ambassador to Thailand
and Vietnam and now Myanmar watcher, Derek Tonkin.
For her part, Suu Kyi continues to try to entice the reclusive generals into
direct talks. In her latest letter to Than Shwe, she requested a meeting with
him to explore ways that she may be able help the national conciliation
process.
"It shows she has changed and is prepared to be flexible and compromise," said
Justin Wintle, the British writer and biographer of Aung San Suu Kyi. "This
process, encouraged by the US's change of policy, is the most exciting thing to
happen in [Myanmar] for years. There is now a real possibility of dialogue," he
added.
Others are less sanguine. "[Suu Kyi's] latest letter is unlikely to mollify
Than Shwe all that much," said Tonkin. "It is set at the 'we are equals' level
where Than Shwe unfortunately has all the power and is operating from a
position of strength not weakness." So far Than Shwe has not responded to the
letter, according to Nyan Win, a spokesman for the NLD.
Election maneuvers
International attention is expected to refocus on the forthcoming elections and
Than Shwe's promised transition towards a "discipline flourishing" democracy.
There is an emerging measure of unanimity in the international community, one
where the West, which has previously been preoccupied with Suu Kyi's release,
and Asia, which has opted for more engagement, has found common ground.
"Sanctions do not constitute real problems for them [junta], as it does not
hurt them much but creates slight difficulties in their relationship with the
international community. But the elections are very important to them," said
Win Tin, a senior member of the NLD central executive who was recently released
after 19 years in prison.
The joint statement after the US-ASEAN summit, in which neither Suu Kyi nor
political prisoners were expressly mentioned but instead mentioned the need for
free and fair elections, indicated a new emerging international consensus,
prompted largely by the US's change in policy tact.
ASEAN leaders, led by Thai Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva as the current
chairman of the regional grouping, have led overtures to convince the junta
that the elections must be credible. "The elections must be an inclusive and
transparent process if they are to be credible," ASEAN secretary general Surin
Pitsuwan told Asia Times Online. ASEAN stands ready to help the regime in
anyway they want, including by providing election monitors, he added.
China, too, is seemingly on board with this approach. "China adheres to the
principle of national reconciliation and unity, by promoting political dialogue
and consultation between the Government and the opposition," said Chinese
academic and Myanmar watcher, Li Xuecheng, at the Chinese Institute of
Strategic Studies. "China is willing to work together with all the relevant
parties, including opposition political parties, to make the 2010 elections a
success."
While there is a general agreement that an inclusive election is essential for
Myanmar to ease from international isolation, there is no consensus as to what
would constitute a credible result. Even Washington has not given details of
what they expect from the polls.
"The Obama administration has yet to spell out what they mean by free and fair
elections," said David Steinberg, a professor of Asian Studies at Georgetown
University in Washington and author of numerous books and academic articles on
Myanmar told Asia Times Online.
"Does that mean Aung San Suu Kyi being allowed to run or campaign? The NLD
being able to contest the elections? Fair campaigning and the open printing and
distributing of campaign literature?" asked Steinberg. "Unfortunately
everything still remains open to interpretation."
For years, Suu Kyi has said her freedom was far less important than
establishing a genuine dialogue between the pro-democracy movement and the
junta. The US may now have also signed up to this approach.
But some analysts inside Myanmar believe that the process will be fruitless
unless Suu Kyi is able to offer Than Shwe something tangible which would allay
his fears that she was not intent on running in the forthcoming elections. Some
suggest that she should resign from the NLD as a gesture of goodwill and follow
in the footsteps of South Africa's Nelson Mandela and Timor Leste's Xanna
Gusmao by assisting reconciliation and the transition to a civilian
administration as a national figure.
Others point towards India's Sonia Gandhi, the Italian-born wife of the
assassinated Indian prime minister Rajiv Gandhi who succeeded him as the
Congress party's leader. She later declined to take the premiership or any
ministerial post after her party won national elections to avoid a
constitutional wrangle with the Hindu nationalist opposition. However, she
remained the party's leader and a powerful influence behind the scenes.
Meanwhile, a major shake-up is expected inside the army, with hundreds of
officers set to retire to make way for a new generation of military leaders.
The ruling State Peace and Development Council (SPDC) held its quarterly
meeting in the capital, Naypyidaw, last week, and the aligned United Solidarity
and Development Association (USDA) just held its annual congress.
The USDA is expected to announce the formation of its political party shortly
and will provide a transitional vehicle for soldiers to become civilian
politicians.
An electoral law that will set the rules for campaigning and party registration
is expected to be rolled out in the coming weeks. An interim cabinet is also to
be announced before the end of the year, according to Myanmar government
sources.
Some observers believe that Suu Kyi may be released coinciding with, or soon
after, the announcement, if Than Shwe feels she is no longer a potent threat to
the elections. It's a move that would push forward Myanmar's new engagement
with the US, and depending on the terms of her release would be seen by many as
a positive step towards reconciliation.
"Whatever happens will be down to Than Shwe," said Turnell. "He wants to have
nothing to do with [Suu Kyi], but may be prepared to go through the motions if
it buys him time."
Larry Jagan previously covered Myanmar politics for the British
Broadcasting Corp. He is currently a freelance journalist based in Bangkok.
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