DENPASAR, Bali - The escalating Allah controversy that has resulted in the
bombing of Christian churches across Malaysia has called into question the
country's moderate Muslim credentials and could have major repercussions for
political alliances that underpin the United Malays Nasional Organization
(UMNO)-led coalition government.
Both main political blocs - UMNO and the Anwar Ibrahim-led Pakatan Rakyat (PR)
opposition coalition - have bid to capitalize on the violence, which has
devolved from an obscure freedom of
expression issue into a volatile matter of internal security that could
potentially determine the government's political survival.
UMNO has so far come out the worse for wear with its credibility shaken and
reputation bruised by perceptions it has tacitly condoned the violence
targeting Christians. Political analysts believe those perceptions, fanned by
online media and blogs, could alienate UMNO's moderate Muslim base and perhaps
more importantly constituencies in the swing states of Sabah and Sarawak, whose
parliamentarians help to maintain UMNO's parliamentary majority.
Some analysts predict that the violence could coax certain constituencies,
particularly Christians in Sabah and Sarawak, away from UMNO and towards the PR
opposition, potentially paving the way for the parliamentary defections Anwar
has long sought to topple the government. Others believe UMNO's poor handling
of the violence could sway more voters against the party at the next election,
which already promised to be hotly contested.
UMNO's politicization of ethnicity and religion has a long history. Many feel
those tactics have paved the way for the recent senseless attacks against at
least nine churches in the wake last month's High Court ruling in favor of
Catholic weekly newspaper, the Herald, that allowed the publication to use the
word "Allah" in reference to the Christian God.
Lim Teck Ghee, director for the Kuala Lumpur-based Center for Policy
Initiatives, said that hot-headed Muslims would not have felt emboldened enough
to throw firebombs at churches had former prime minister Mahathir Mohammad not
"shifted the political goal posts in 2001 by pronouncing Malaysia as an Islamic
state".
Another wedge driven between local religions, Gee says, was former premier
Abdullah Badawi's neglect of inter-faith dialogue in favor of what he
characterizes as the former premier's "empty Islamic Hadhari rhetoric". He also
pinned the blame on academics, a partisan media and the attorney general "for
having failed to draw attention to the rise of political party-related
religious and right-wing extremism".
The approach of current UMNO leader and Prime Minister Najib Razak to the
controversy has apparently been influenced by the March 2008 election results,
which saw the heretofore invincible Barisan Nasional (BN) coalition lose power
in five of the federation's 13 states and yield its long-held two-thirds
majority in parliament.
A series of by-elections since have underlined the shift in voter-sentiment
away from UMNO and indicated that its past politicking in favor of Malay
Muslims over minority groups is no longer the rock-solid strategy it previously
was. Minorities, including ethnic Chinese and Indians, constitute 40% of the
Malaysian electorate.
The Malaysian Indian Congress (MIC) and the Malaysian Chinese Association
(MCA), the respective ethnic Indian and Chinese parties of the BN coalition,
were virtually wiped off the political map at the last election. Meanwhile,
UMNO simultaneously lost substantial support among its traditional Malay Muslim
constituency.
The BN currently controls 137 of 220 parliamentary seats; PR, on the other
hand, holds sway over 82 seats, while three members of parliament are
independent of either coalition. Anwar recently told this correspondent that
several BN parliamentarians had long been ready to cross over, but were held
back "by fear of repression".
Those claims are difficult to substantiate, but the Allah controversy has
confirmed to many political observers that UMNO has given up trying to revive
the political fortunes of the MCA or MIC and is now deliberately moving to
withdraw into its conservative, nationalist past.
The earlier decision to ban The Herald from using the word "Allah", as well as
the vociferous reaction to the court verdict last month that reinstated the
paper's right to use the word in its publications was to many observers a
thinly veiled attempt to reunite a splintered ethnic Malay vote - which
combined represents some 60% of the country's 26 million people.
That strategy was apparently based on the assumption that the controversy would
not alienate the large Christian constituencies in Sabah and Sarawak.
Non-Muslims form the majority in the two states and Christians form the single
biggest constituency by faith, accounting for 47% of the two Borneo-based
states' combined population.
The Allah controversy's ripple effect, many agree, has been to discredit UMNO's
claim to ethnic Malay supremacy and emboldened the PR's clarion call for
multiracial harmony. Instead of driving more Muslims intro the UMNO fold, the
church attacks seem to have renewed momentum towards an ethnic-blind country
and political system.
UMNO's religious bluff - that the Allah issue represented a threat to Islam and
was part of a larger pro-Christian plot to convert Muslims - has been refuted
by the opposition-led Parti Islam-se Malaysia (PAS), viewed widely as
Malaysia's most traditional Islamic party. PAS has so far largely stood by The
Herald, underscoring the notion that the controversy is not a religious issue,
but rather a political one.
As a consequence, PAS could lose appeal with its past core traditional Islamic
constituency, but could in the process pick up more moderate Muslims that
desert UMNO over the controversy. The opposition party could also benefit from
emerging grass roots campaigns that have pinned the blame for the violence
squarely on UMNO.
A group consisting of 121 non-governmental organizations and other religious
and professional organizations has since the bombings promoted solidarity
between religions while at the same time condemned UMNO. Farouk Musa, a leader
of the umbrella group, said that such violence against places of worship "is as
much an affront to Islam and to all religions as it is to Christians".
The opposition is bidding to piggyback on those campaigns. "The UMNO-led
government's appeal is waning, not only with the non-Malays but also with the
vast majority of Malays who realize that the ruling party has lost its way,"
said Anwar in an interview with this correspondent. "UMNO's ability to hold
onto enough seats in parliament will be questioned by many if it continues down
this reckless path."
That promises in the weeks ahead to turn the political focus on Sabah and
Sarawak. In those two states, people's identity is tied mostly to tribe rather
than religion or political affiliation, marking a different political culture
than other areas of the country. Elections, especially in Sarawak, have
historically been dominated by money politics, which UMNO has been able to
influence with its access to state coffers.
Sarawak's 31 seats account for 13% of parliament's seats, while Sabah's is
slightly less with a tally of 25. All parliamentarians except for two from
Sarawak and Sabah are currently aligned with the BN. But a sudden swing in
favor of the opposition would mathematically be enough to topple the BN and
bring Anwar and the PR to power.
Notably political leaders in the two states have remained muted as the Allah
controversy has spiraled. But there are unmistakable signs of grassroots
discontent. Some Borneo-based religious leaders, activists and academics have
expressed anger over what they perceive as UMNO's contempt for the collective
political weight of Christian voters. Those rising sentiments accentuate what
was already a growing sense of alienation in the two states vis-a-vis the
wealthier peninsula.
The two states joined Malaya in 1963 on the basis of the so-called 20-point
agreement for Sabah and the 18-point agreement for Sarawak. The agreements were
written for the purpose of safeguarding the interests, rights and the autonomy
of the people of the two states on the formation of the federation. It was
originally envisaged that the two states would be two of four entities in the
federation, the others being Malaya and Singapore.
Over time, Sabah and Sarawak's political weight has diminished as two of 13
states in a wider federation, which also comprises three federal territories:
Kuala Lumpur, Labuan and Putrajaya. Aside from nominally separate immigration
controls, there is little evidence that the two states have maintained any
degree of autonomy, including over natural resource exploitation.
In recent years, Sabah in particular has accused Kuala Lumpur of exploiting its
resources; some estimate as much as 95% of the profits from Sabah's natural
resources is taken by the federal government. UMNO has arguably been remiss in
addressing Sabah's and Sarawak's demands for more equitable revenue sharing,
opening the way for Anwar's opposition to make inroads through promises of a
better economic deal.
Anwar's coalition has actively bid to win over local politicians, saying that
the coalition "is ready to show strong commitments to at least some of the East
Malaysia's (Sabah and Sarawak ) demands." At last December's opposition
coalition convention, PR leaders made strong references to Sabah and Sarawak
and promised to resolve contested issues on oil royalties and problems facing
different local ethnic groups who are among the poorest and least educated in
the country.
Whether those promises and growing disenchantment over the church bombings will
be enough to win wholesale defections in Sabah and Sarawak is yet to be seen.
PR has not yet fully mobilized its election machinery in the two insular states
and some doubt that Anwar has done enough yet to win over local hearts and
minds. But even if the church bombings motivate a split of the two state's
votes, it could be enough to swing the electoral balance in Anwar's and the
PR's favor.
Fabio Scarpello is the Southeast Asia correspondent for Adnkronos
International. He may be contacted at fscarpello@gmail.com
(Copyright 2010 Asia Times Online (Holdings) Ltd. All rights reserved. Please
contact us about
sales, syndication and
republishing.)
Head
Office: Unit B, 16/F, Li Dong Building, No. 9 Li Yuen Street East,
Central, Hong Kong Thailand Bureau:
11/13 Petchkasem Road,
Hua Hin, Prachuab Kirikhan, Thailand 77110
