ASIA HAND
Thai colors bleed a complicated mosaic
By Shawn W Crispin
BANGKOK - With his floppy hair, social activist background and penchant for
pointing his middle finger towards the government, Sombat Boonngam-anong is the
purported new face of the United Front for Democracy Against Dictatorship (UDD)
protest group. Sombat and his red shirt wearing followers took to the capital's
streets on Sunday, marking the pressure group's largest show of force since the
UDD's nine-week protest was quashed by troops on May 19.
Sombat's event coincided with the fourth anniversary of the military coup that
toppled former premier Thaksin Shinawatra, and openly defied state of emergency
provisions that bar political gatherings of over five people by amassing around
10,000 protesters in downtown Bangkok. The rights-curbing decree was
imposed by Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva in early April to curb the UDD's
protest activities and it has remained in place at the military's insistence.
"Dictators try to use intimidation to control the people through fear," said
Sombat, who was arrested and detained in June for hanging red ribbons from a
street sign in Bangkok's Ratchprasong area where scores of protesters were shot
and killed by troops in May. "Today is symbolic of red shirt power - we have
survived and we are not scared."
Armed exchanges between UDD protesters and security forces in April and May
resulted in 90 deaths and over 1,800 injuries, the majority of them protesters.
Thaksin made veiled threats from exile after the crackdown that UDD supporters
could launch an insurgency in response. A series of bombings in Bangkok and the
northern city of Chiang Mai have followed, including against military
installations, though nobody has taken responsibility for the attacks.
Sombat's rally cry called on Abhisit's government to take responsibility for
the deaths and demanded that UDD leaders currently held in detention since the
crackdown be released. The complaints and grievances were similar to those
aired at previous UDD rallies, but UDD organizers claim Sombat represents a new
generation of UDD leaders, one that is less reliant on Thaksin's symbolism and
more in touch with Bangkok's middle classes.
Sean Boonpracong, the UDD's de facto spokesman, claimed Sunday's protest was
"purely spontaneous" and "in no way" relied on Thaksin's cash or influence to
organize. He estimated that the crowd was "almost entirely" from Bangkok's
middle classes, and not the rural masses its earlier protest claimed to
represent.
Boonpracong also confessed that the UDD's deployment of armed "black shirts"
was a "big mistake" and undermined the group's claim to non-violent struggle it
is now bidding to re-establish. "It was a massacre, but we didn't get the
Tiananmen Square effect in the eyes of the world because a few protesters were
under arms." He claims that at the height of the crisis in May, with armed
troops bearing down on protesters, that the air force considered but backed
away from supporting the UDD against the army.
Government spokesman Panitan Wattanayagorn said Sunday's peaceful protest was
"a sign the system is returning to normalcy", but also showed that red shirt
leaders "are still in transition and don't agree specifically on which way next
to move." He said Abhisit shares the UDD's disagreement with the military's
"unconstitutional coup" and recognized that the UDD's disagreement with his
policies and positions were consistent with a functioning democracy.
In reality, Thailand's democracy has suffered from severe instability since the
coup and Sombat's emergence represents the UDD's latest contrived bid to
package its disparate interest groups under a coherent pro-democracy banner.
After making several video-linked, phone-in addresses to UDD supporters in
March, Thaksin began to distance himself from the protests after the UDD's
militant wing became more openly apparent in April and May.
Thaksin has maintained he neither leads nor bankrolls the UDD, a claim few
Bangkok-based diplomats who monitor the situation take seriously. Furthering
that detachment narrative, Sombat declined in an interview at a McDonald's
restaurant thronged with red shirt supporters on Sunday to say whether he
considered himself pro- or anti-Thaksin.
Sombat said that before the 2006 coup that he penned several articles for his
non-governmental organization that were often critical of Thaksin. He said he
respected the right of the rival People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) to
protest against Thaksin and his aligned governments, but that he finds it
"surreal" how the former premier's detractors now blame him for all of the
country's problems. He characterized his protest activities as "low cost and
high impact".
Power in the shadows
Despite those deflections, it's still too early to discount Thaksin's role. The
exiled premier has taken a more conciliatory line in recent weeks, with his
attentions focused on bolstering his aligned Puea Thai party for possible early
elections next year. It has marked a notable turn from the exiled former
leader's recent efforts through lobbyists and lawyers to undermine Abhisit's
legitimacy by internationalizing the protest-related deaths.
Thaksin declined to make a phone-in address at Sunday's rallies, but spoke of
the need for reconciliation via his Twitter account. "I want to see Thai people
look ahead together, a healing of those suffering from recent political
violence and forgiveness. I don't want to see any more unrest, the bringing
down of the high institution [the monarchy] into politics, the destruction of
political rivals by using double standards of the justice system."
Behind the rhetoric, Thaksin is now actively involved in internationally
brokered mediation efforts with Abhisit's government. In recent months, he has
met with foreign interlocutors in both Cyprus and Russia, and his personal
spokesman Pongthep Thepkanchana met on September 1 with a politician and aides
close to Abhisit at Bangkok's Conrad Hotel as part of those international
efforts.
According to people familiar with the situation, Thaksin has repeatedly
requested a direct line of communication with the palace, presumed to mean top
Privy Councilors rather than the ailing King Bhumibol Adulyadej, and a return
of the US$1.4 billion of his assets which were seized through a February 28
court decision that provided the spark for the UDD's nine-week protest launched
on March 12.
During a secret meeting arranged by a Swedish government mediator in Brunei in
April with Bangkok governor Sukhumbhand Paribatra, Thaksin also requested a
return of his seized funds as a precondition for peace and reconciliation,
according to people familiar with the discussions. Those one-day talks took
place a week after black shirt wearing UDD supporters fired grenades at troops
and soldiers returned fire, killing 25 in the protest's first volley of
violence.
More recently, Abhisit has refused to budge on making any substantive
concessions to Thaksin's camp, including the requested release of UDD leaders
from prison, according to people familiar with the situation. The UDD's show of
popular force on Sunday could thus be interpreted as Thaksin's latest carrot
and stick bid to enhance his negotiating leverage vis-a-vis the government.
Those talks will likely remain a non-starter as long as government allegations
that certain unnamed UDD and Puea Thai leaders are involved in a plot to
overthrow the monarchy remain in political play. Anti-monarchy charges are
particularly sensitive in Thailand's context, where the royal family is
protected from public criticism by strict lese majeste laws that carry possible
15-year prison sentences. No suspects have been charged in the alleged plot,
which is currently under police investigation.
One palace source suspects that elements sympathetic to the UDD are mainly
responsible for the flood of anti-monarchy materials that have been posted
anonymously to the Internet and banned by a growing contingent of state
censors. Those postings have come mostly from overseas, where the UDD claims to
have over 100,000 supporters, mostly in the US and Europe. Thaksin and UDD
leaders have consistently denied the anti-crown allegations.
Hardliner rising
The anti-monarchy charges could carry more weight with the upcoming shift in
military leadership from army commander General Anupong Paochinda to General
Prayuth Chan-ocha, a known palace favorite with close ties to Queen Sirikit
through his service in the elite Queen's Guard unit. It's unclear where the
palace comes down on the anti-monarchy plot, but spokesman Panitan says the
cases will be based solely on "legal issues" and are "separate" from the
government's negotiations with Thaksin.
Prayuth's rise comes as Abhisit and the top brass wrestle over the need to
maintain emergency rule in seven provinces, including in Bangkok. While Anupong
maintained through his tenure that political problems required political
solutions, Prayuth has said he will try to keep the brass out of politics.
There are growing concerns that the military-controlled Center for Resolution
of the Emergency Situation (CRES) has emerged as a sort of shadow government to
Abhisit's administration and could be putting the mechanisms in place to
quickly seize power in an emergency situation. Panitan says the government and
military have "good working relations" and that "the new leadership agrees that
stability is best achieved through democratic means".
The military has recently bolstered its street presence in Bangkok in response
to a series of unexplained bomb attacks. Those have included two small blasts
against ruling coalition partner Bhum Jai Thai's headquarters and another
against the government's mouthpiece Channel 11 TV station after it aired a
report about progress in police investigations into the alleged plot to
overthrow the monarchy.
The bigger bang question concerns the military's view on Abhisit's apparent
desire to hold early elections. The military has expanded its powers during
Abhisit's term, which isn't due to expire until December 2011. Its unclear
whether Prayuth and other royalist top brass would risk the scenario of a Puea
Thai election win while Bhumibol is in poor health and unresolved questions
linger about the UDD's and Puea Thai's loyalty to the crown.
A newly elected Thaksin-aligned government would likely move swiftly to
sideline Prayuth, who could potentially serve four consecutive years in his
leadership post and is believed to be the palace's preferred military candidate
to help manage the delicate royal succession from Bhumibol to heir apparent
Crown Prince Vajiralongkorn. There are concerns among some royalists the UDD
could bid to complicate the process through their protests.
A Puea Thai-led government would also be expected to move more aggressively in
pinning blame on the military top brass, including Prayuth, for ordering recent
protest-related deaths. Abhisit has launched a quasi-independent fact-finding
panel to look into the deaths, but its leader, a former attorney general, has
already said he does not intend to assign blame and aims to promote
reconciliation through his findings.
That leaves Abhisit stuck uncomfortably in the middle of the military and UDD.
Abhisit is still believed to favor early elections, both as a conciliatory
gesture to the UDD and to dispel enduring criticism that his coalition
government lacks democratic legitimacy because it placed second at the 2007
polls and was allegedly cobbled together by backroom military maneuvers.
Some analysts believe new polls would be a dead heat between Abhisit's Democrat
Party and Puea Thai and that the Democrats would fare best if elections were
held coincident with a high water mark in the economic recovery. After slipping
into negative growth amid the global economic recession, the Thai economy has
bounced back strongly, undercutting statistically Thaksin's claims that only
his policies could lead the country from crisis to recovery.
Against the upbeat economic backdrop is the ongoing legal case that threatens
to dissolve the Democrats on charges related to an illegal campaign donation it
received in 2005 and the party's alleged misuse of state funds given for
election purposes. Revelations from the hearings, including an incriminating
audio clip that appears to implicate the party in fraud, have strengthened
perceptions that the Democrats could lose the pivotal case.
A guilty verdict would go a long way in dispelling UDD complaints about
perceived double standards in the judiciary, including a series of rulings that
have gone against Thaksin and his political allies since the 2006 coup. A
decision for dissolution would also likely push back the prospect of early
elections while the Democrats regrouped under a new party banner and
leadership.
Some believe that the conservative interests which coalesced behind Abhisit in
2008, including the military, feel increasingly that divisiveness over
Abhisit's leadership has hampered rather than helped stability. "We hope to
accelerate the thinking that Abhisit has outlived his usefulness," said
Boonpracong, who claims to have seen a recent internal CRES report that comes
to that conclusion. "Until then, we plan on keeping them on edge."
Shawn W Crispin is Asia Times Online's Southeast Asia Editor.
(Copyright 2010 Asia Times Online (Holdings) Ltd. All rights reserved. Please
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