A cooperative announcement from the United States and Association of Southeast
Asian Nations (ASEAN) on Friday included reference to navigation and maritime
security, an issue of rising rancor between the US and China in the South China
Sea. Southeast Asian nations welcomed the US's commitment, but Washington's
growing involvement in the group's prickly territorial issues with China
threatens to spark a new regional flash point.
The joint US-ASEAN statement came after a luncheon between US President Barack
Obama and leaders of ASEAN member states on the sidelines of the United
Nations' General Assembly meeting in New York. The meeting was co-chaired by
Vietnamese president Nguyen Minh Triet, who currently serves as ASEAN's
chairman, and marks the second time Obama has met with
regional leaders since last November in Singapore.
Much of the statement dealt with rolling over past cooperation. "We reaffirmed
the importance of regional peace and stability, maritime security, unimpeded
commerce, freedom of navigation, in accordance with relevant universally agreed
principles of international law, including the United Nations Convention on the
Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) and other international maritime law, and the peaceful
settlement of disputes." A White House version released the same day notably
added the phrase "including in the South China Sea."
The South China Sea became a hot issue between the US and China in March when a
senior Chinese foreign policy adviser warned two visiting American officials
that Beijing considered the area a "core interest". The term is normally used
by Beijing for regions where there are sensitive sovereignty issues, including
Tibet, Taiwan and Xinjiang.
The expression of "core interest" worried ASEAN nations, especially those with
territorial claims to the South China Sea, as it seemingly placed China's claim
to the South China Sea at the highest level of policy. It also concerned US
policymakers since the area is the world's third most active commercial sea
lane and runs counter to Washington's views on navigation rights.
At the ASEAN Regional Forum in Hanoi in July, Chinese officials were caught
off-guard when US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton declared that the
resolution of territorial disputes was a matter of America's national interest.
Beijing reacted angrily, accusing the US of interference in a regional issue.
Soon after, China held its largest naval exercises to date in the South China
Sea in a move some strategic observers saw as a veiled threat.
The US held its own, albeit much smaller, naval exercises with Vietnam last
month and hosted Vietnamese officials and military officers aboard the American
carrier USS George Washington as it steamed through the South China Sea.
While the exercises only involved non-combatant activities and the visit was
geared toward confidence-building, the move was clearly designed to send a
competing message of US interest in the area.
Prior to Friday's meeting in New York, China spokeswoman Jiang Yu had warned
the US and ASEAN about issuing a statement on the South China Sea. She said
outside parties should not interfere in the dispute since internationalizing
the issue would only make it more complicated and not lead to a solution.
China's stance on maritime issues has grown increasingly hardline in recent
years. As its naval power has grown, Beijing has backed strong rhetoric with
military exercises that have set neighboring powers on edge. China has assumed
the right to regulate which vessels can navigate or conduct research in its
exclusive economic zones (EEZ), a move which legal experts say flouts
international laws governing freedom of navigation. The USS Impeccable,
an ocean surveillance ship, was harassed by Chinese naval vessels in March
2009, forcing it to leave an area in China's EEZ.
China's tougher stance has become increasingly evident in the South China Sea.
After several years of diplomatic dealings, including its signing of the Treaty
of Amity and Cooperation with ASEAN in 2003, China has become increasingly firm
about its wide claims in the maritime area. The treaty aimed to commit all
sides in disputes to peaceful resolution and the renunciation of the threat or
use of force.
China's claims extend over most of the South China Sea and are at odds with the
territorial claims of Vietnam, Taiwan, Brunei, Malaysia and the Philippines. In
addition to navigation issues, the seabed is thought to be rich in oil and gas.
Economic ally, strategic threat
Through burgeoning trade and investment ties, ASEAN has grown closer to China
in recent years. Those ties have been bolstered by Beijing's various "soft
power" initiatives, including ramped up development aid, interest-free loans,
and various training courses for officials, including Chinese language
sessions. Its influence is set to rise with its still fast-growing economy and
the inauguration this year of the ASEAN-China Free Trade Agreement, which will
lower or eliminate tariffs.
At the same time, historical fears combined with rising concerns over Beijing's
rapid military expansion have some Southeast Asian nations worried about future
Chinese domination. The obvious hedge to these fears is the US, especially
since its overt re-engagement with the region following Clinton's visit to the
ASEAN Secretariat in Jakarta in February 2009. ASEAN leaders have reacted
warmly to Washington's overture, saying they welcome a strong US role in the
region.
Both Washington and Beijing have been careful to avoid language which could be
construed as competition for regional influence. Yet some strategic analysts
believe the region could soon return to a Cold War-like situation, where
nations are pressured to take diplomatic sides. While certain Southeast Asian
nations have built-in biases, as a whole ASEAN would prefer increased US
engagement, but not at the cost of isolating China. Instead, many would prefer
to see a triangular strategic dialogue where the US, China and ASEAN all work
together.
While US support for the resolution of territorial disputes in the South China
Sea certainly adds weight to ASEAN claimants' positions, member nations are
also wary of Washington's direct involvement in the issue. Beijing has resisted
multilateral talks on the area, preferring instead to hold bilateral
discussions where it has stronger negotiating leverage. However, none of the
nations wants to be forced to choose between China and the US in order to
resolve the issue.
It is unlikely Washington will force the issue since its interests would not be
served by creating a regional dynamic in which countries are divided over
support for the US or China, particularly at a time the US's economic might has
diminished vis-a-vis China. Clearly, US interests are broader than the
promotion of the territorial claims of ASEAN members to win favor in the
region.
The US's primary concern with the South China Sea is that Chinese domination
could jeopardize access to one of the world's most important commercial sea
lanes. Support for multilateral discussions also helps US "soft power"
interests in the region, without substantial financial expense. Consistent with
that shifting economic dynamic, the US acceded belatedly to the ASEAN Treaty of
Amity and Cooperation in July 2009.
Promotion of free navigation in the South China Sea also jibes with US concerns
over China's rising assertion of its assumed maritime rights and improved naval
capabilities. Since the 1990's, China has carried out a program of military
modernization and weapons acquisition that has raised concerns in Washington.
In recent years, China has developed and acquired new hardware, including
anti-ship ballistic missiles (ASBMs), submarines and surface warships. In
addition, it has taken steps to overhaul its naval doctrine and improve its
training, logistics and military exercises.
Analysts believe the sharpest focus of China's naval improvements is Taiwan,
which Beijing considers a renegade province. So far China's naval improvements
have bid primarily to ensure area denial from its shores out to a distance
around Taiwan, a capability aimed at forcing the US to keep its distance in the
scenario of a conflict over Taiwan. But its enhanced naval powers have also
emboldened Chinese maritime claims and improved defense of its sea line
communications.
The South China Sea issue will likely be discussed again before the end of the
year during several high-level US diplomatic visits scheduled for Southeast
Asia in the coming months. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton will travel to
Hanoi at the end of October to mark the US's first ever participation in the
East Asia Summit.
Secretary for Defense Robert Gates will also be travelling to Hanoi in October
to take part in the ASEAN Defense Ministers-Plus meeting. President Obama will
follow in November when he visits Indonesia after canceling two previous trips.
He is also scheduled to return to Indonesia for the next East Asian Summit in
2011.
While the US is signaling a firmer strategic commitment, the US-ASEAN joint
statement on Friday fell short of the strong declaration on the South China Sea
some had anticipated. That's a reflection of ASEAN leaders' reluctance to chill
a regional warming trend with China. But by placing maritime security concerns
in their joint statement and with the US expressly mentioning the South China
Sea in the White House's separate read-out, US-China competition for regional
influence has a potentially volatile new theater.
Clifford McCoy is a freelance journalist.
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