PENANG - The political tide
that earlier rolled against Malaysia's ruling
United Malays Nasional Organization (UMNO)-led
coalition appears to have turned again in its
favor, raising the prospects for possible early
polls.
The latest indication of the shift:
two by-election wins by comfortable majorities
over the weekend in two state assembly
constituencies. The wins leveled the by-election
tally at eight each for the Barisan Nasional
(National Front) coalition and opposition Pakatan
Rakyat (People's Alliance) since the Anwar
Ibrahim-led opposition made significant gains in
the March 2008 general elections.
However,
the Barisan Nasional (BN) coalition has recently
been on a roll, winning seven of the last eight
by-elections held since
October 2009. The next big
test will come at the Sarawak state elections,
which must be called by July but are
widely tipped to be held in April. Together with
neighboring Sabah, the two states account for a
quarter of the seats in the federal parliament.
If the BN wins comfortably in Sarawak,
some political analysts reckon a snap general
election could be on the cards in the months
ahead. General elections are not due until 2013
but UMNO has historically called for snap polls
when its popularity or the economy have run on
high.
Most of the BN's recent poll
victories, including weekend wins in Pahang
state's Kerdau and Malacca's Merlimau, have come
in rural or semi-rural seats. The one opposition
victory in the last six by-elections was picked up
by the opposition Democratic Action Party in the
town of Sibu in Sarawak.
Apart from the
usual opposition complaints of abuse of state
agencies during by-election campaigns and
relentless pro-government propaganda over
state-influenced electronic and print media, there
are several political and economic factors working
in the BN's favor.
For one, global crude
palm oil prices are soaring, representing a boon
to the country's many small-scale palm growers
under the government's Federal Land Development
(Felda) schemes. The benchmark May contract price
was above 3,500 ringgit (US$1,155), a huge
increase over last year's 2,701 ringgit and 2008's
average of 2,236 ringgit. With those high prices,
analysts believe Felda settlers will vote solidly
for the BN.
"Some of these settlers now
live comfortable lives with the prevailing high
commodity prices,'' said a Pahang-based local
activist who observed the Kerdau by-election won
by the BN. ''Concepts like human rights mean
little to them.''
Natural rubber prices
have also shot up, benefiting some 300,000
smallholders in rural areas. According to a recent
Edge weekly report, rubber growers' incomes have
recently surged, in some instances tripling since
the 2008-9 economic downturn. SMR 20 natural
rubber is now trading at over US$5 per kilogram,
compared to around $1.50 at the height of the
crisis.
With commodity prices booming,
analysts say it's no wonder that the BN's
popularity has bounced back in many rural and
semi-rural areas after suffering electoral
setbacks in 2008. But there's another factor
analysts say might explain the BN's about-turn
since October 2009: prime minister Najib Razak's
use of the ''1Malaysia'' slogan.
A poll
conducted recently by the research group Ilham
Center ahead of the by-election in Merlimau showed
that 56.5% of respondents said that apart from
issues related to local infrastructure and
facilities the 1Malaysia campaign would influence
how they vote at the next polls.
The
political slogan was first rolled out in September
2010 and called on leaders, government agencies,
and civil servants to more strongly emphasize
national unity, ethnic harmony, and effective and
efficient governance. "1Malaysia's goal is to
preserve and enhance ... unity in diversity which
has always been our strength and remains our best
hope for the future," says Najib at his 1Malaysia
website.
Opposition politicians have been
highly critical of the campaign, often pointing to
the hypocrisy between the message of unity and
UMNO's traditional championing of race-based
policies that favor ethnic Malays over ethnic
minority groups. The introduction of 1Malaysia
came at a time when ethnic minority parties in the
coalition - namely, the Malaysian Chinese
Association and the Malaysian Indian Congress -
were at a low ebb after being hammered at the 2008
general election.
Despite the ethnic
harmony and national unity sloganeering, many
right-wing ethno-nationalist Malay groups have
simultaneously emerged in promotion of a more
exclusivist vision of the country's future. They
have often railed against more liberal-democratic
individuals and civil society groups who are
seeking to build a more inclusive society.
Clive Kessler, emeritus professor of
sociology and anthropology at Australia's
University of South Wales, contends that while the
1Malaysia slogan conveys and resonates with both
notions of national belonging - 'civic
nationalism' and 'ethno-nationalism' - most
Malaysians hear only one of the messages.
''On the one hand there are many who yearn
for this nation to be, to become in gradual and
progressive stages, a truly inclusive, modern
national community, a multiethnic and culturally
inclusive nation of a generally liberal-democratic
kind,'' Kessler wrote in a recent commentary.
"There is another notion. It holds that
there is One Malaysia, only one Malaysia, not
many. There is only one Malaysia, and it is ours.
Since it is ours, we set the terms here. If you
wish to be part of it you may. There is a place
for you here, and we will tell you what it is."
An opposition PAS Penang state committee
member who participated in recent by-election
campaigning in Merlimau views similarly the ruling
coalition's use of the controversial slogan.
"The BN in its campaigning uses the
1Malaysia slogan to mean different things to
different groups of people,'' he said. ''When
campaigning in the Malay areas, BN speakers say
this 1Malaysia is for development and to promote
ketuanan Melayu (Malay supremacy or
dominance), apart from talking about and attending
to local problems. When talking to minority
communities, they talk about importance of unity,
and how we have to be together, as we are all
Malaysians."
It's therefore no wonder that
the recent Ilham poll found that the 1Malaysia
slogan appealed to a majority of respondents in
Merlimau. But while the BN appears to have turned
the tide in many rural areas, it will find a
similar shift more difficult in urban areas, where
voters have more access to alternative news and
information and are feeling the pinch of rising
fuel, food, and housing prices.
That's a
still significant divide in perceptions, one that
may yet stall the temptation for UMNO to call
early elections and run on a ticket of harmony and
unity.
Anil Netto is a
Penang-based writer.
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