Counterpoint on Myanmar's
transition By Stanley A Weiss
YANGON - As demonstrators from Tunis to
Cairo to Tripoli wonder if their revolutions will
succeed, Myanmar remains an unfortunate poster
child for what happens when revolutions go wrong.
With a population equal in size to the United
Kingdom, and a per capita income of less than US$2
per day, Myanmar has suffered under military rule
since 1962.
Peaceful demonstrations for
democracy like those seen in Tunisia, Egypt, and
Libya (seen, that is, everywhere but here, since
coverage is censored) led to soldiers opening fire
on defenseless monks and students - first in 1988
when an estimated 6,000 were killed; and again in
2007 when hundreds died and thousands were jailed
in unrest that became known around the world as
the "Saffron" revolution.
So, it came as
no surprise last November when the
international
community dismissed Myanmar's
first general election in two decades, which saw
regime-backed candidates win handily, as "neither
free nor fair", in US President Barack Obama's
words. As the new elected government prepares to
take over this month, there are still unanswered
questions about what the people in Myanmar think
and what people in the West understand about
Myanmar's transition. This writer reached out to
contacts made in the years I've traveled to
Myanmar and three strong themes emerged from their
insights.
First, the elections mattered
more than the West realizes. "What has been missed
in the West is that these elections took place
within a much broader political transition," said
Myanmarese historian Thant Myint-U, the grandson
of former United Nations (UN) secretary general U
Thant. "Nearly the entire junta has resigned their
military commissions. Many ran in the elections
and some will wind up in the new government. A
whole new generation of army officers has been
promoted to the leadership. Under the new
constitution, the National Assembly and various
regional assemblies will be one of three political
actors, along with the presidency and the army."
A long-time political activist, who was
once jailed by the junta, he added, "When the
junta started the Union Solidarity and Development
Party [USDP] that won the elections, the high
level members they chose for ranking positions
were from small towns - doctors, high school
principals, business people - who were already
well-known and popular in their society. When you
look at the candidates who won, they won. What has
escaped notice by the West is that the new
President, Thein Sein, is clean and his children
are clean, with no corruption scandals. It's a
start."
Long-time Myanmar scholar Robert
Taylor said, "While outwardly it appears that the
generals have traded suits for uniforms,
underlying it there is change of a more
substantial nature. The army realizes that it
cannot govern alone forever and wants to open up
political space and opportunities for those who
share its goal of economic development, political
stability and political nationalism."
"And
don't forget," added Thant Myint-U, "In the
election dozens of parties competed, most entirely
independent of the junta. Millions have voted for
the first time in 20 years. Is this a step toward
democracy? Only time will tell. But who can say,
even in hindsight, what the important steps were
that eventually led to democracy in, say, South
Korea or Indonesia."
Second, many
Myanmarese feel embittered toward the West. "There
is solid mistrust and resentment toward the West,
not only among the generals but the country as a
whole," says the activist. "We're tired of being
represented in your newspapers as cowering in fear
and barefoot, scrabbling in the mud. It's just
insulting. America now talks about China's growing
influence here. We just happen to be right next to
it. So, finally the American administration is
looking at a map?"
A local expatriate who
requested anonymity said, "It is too late for the
United States here now. You were arrogant for too
long to think Western input was needed. It's not.
Now, a major economic corridor is forming in
Myanmar, and massive investment is flowing in. Sad
to say, but you've lost this generation."
Third, Western sanctions are not just
useless but they actually strengthen the regime
while weakening the opposition. "What the West
doesn't understand," says a transplanted British
citizen, "is that the sanctions of the
international community [imposed by the US] have
not only failed but the community itself has
failed to achieve the respect of the generals that
would enable meaningful dialogue".
Thant
Myint-U agrees: "US policy for a long time has
been based on an objective that was extremely
unlikely to be met - a dialogue between opposition
leader Aung San Suu Kyi [who was recently released
after 17 years in jail and under house arrest] and
the junta leading to democratic change. Western
sanctions that were put in place to force the
dialogue have not bankrupted the government, nor
pressured leaders toward political reform. What
they have done is severely weaken the position of
independent businessmen and the middle classes on
whom an open society depends."
Adds the
expatriate: "The regime has no reason or incentive
to want sanctions lifted. They want no NGOs
[non-governmental organizations], no UN, and no
ILO [International Labor Organization] to have to
compromise with."
"Like it or not," Thant
Myint-U adds, pointing to Tunisia, Egypt and
Libya, "We have to accept that we no longer live
in a time when the West can determine political
change half way around the world." Unfortunately
for the West, that may be the revolution that
lasts.
Stanley A Weiss is
Founding Chairman of Business Executives for
National Security, a nonpartisan organization
based in Washington.
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