In his public speeches and
early policy signals, newly appointed President
Thein Sein has raised questions about Myanmar's
political direction after last year's democratic
election. While invoking the need for good
governance and anti-corruption measures, words
rarely if ever heard from previous military
leaders, indications are Thein Sein will serve
more as a figurehead for the country's former
military supremo, Senior General Than Shwe, than a
genuine democratic reformer.
Thein
Sein was chosen to be Myanmar's new president on
February 4 in a secret ballot among three
candidates in the new parliament. The runners-up,
former lieutenant general Tin Aung Myint Oo and
Shan politician Sai Mouk Kham, assumed the roles
of vice presidents. The positions were made
official with the official
dissolving of the State Peace
and Development Council (SPDC) junta on March 30
and the swearing in of Thein Sein, two vice
presidents and cabinet ministers the same day.
Thein Sein's rise to the top of Myanmar's
new democratic configuration was relatively
low-key and free from accusations of past
corruption and human-rights abuses. This stems
from his role as a military bureaucrat rather than
a frontline fighter like his contemporaries and
chief rivals, former general Thura Shwe Mann and
lieutenant general Thiha Thura Tin Aung Myint Oo.
("Thura" and "Thiha Thura" are honorifics given to
military officers for bravery in the field.)
Thein Sein's resume speaks to his military
mindset. Born in the Irrawaddy Delta region in
1945, he began his military career as a student at
the Defense Services Academy, from where he
graduated in 1968. By the time of the 1988
pro-democracy protests, which the military finally
brutally crushed, Thein Sein was a major in the
55th Light Infantry Division in Sagaing Division.
He subsequently served as commander of the 89th
Infantry Battalion near Kalay, also in Sagaing
Division.
In 1989, he attended the
Command and General Staff College in Kalaw, Shan
State. By 1991, he had climbed to the rank of
colonel and 1st Grade General Staff Officer in the
War Office under then Myanmar Armed Forces
commander-in-chief, General Than Shwe. Thein Sein
was subsequently promoted to brigadier general,
but unusually remained as a general staff officer,
a position usually reserved for lieutenant
colonels and colonels. This likely reflected on
the importance Than Shwe placed and still places
on Thein Sein's loyalty.
Following these
staff appointments, Thein Sein was briefly given
command of the 4th Operations Control Command, a
military formation equivalent to an infantry
division, in Hmawbi, Yangon Division in 1995. He
was then assigned to be commander of the Triangle
Regional Command in 1996, a post located in the
important tri-border area between China, Laos and
Thailand where several ethnic insurgent groups
operate. It is a center for narcotics trafficking.
Thein Sein was in command during the 2001 border
clashes with Thailand around the towns of Tachilek
in Myanmar and Mae Sai in Thailand in 2001.
Thein Sein was moved into the upper
echelons of power following the death of
lieutenant-general Tin Oo, and several other
senior generals in a helicopter crash in 2001.
Promoted to adjutant general in the War Office, he
was also brought into the SPDC's central ruling
authority. By 2003, he had moved up to the junta's
Secretary 2 position. After the arrest of powerful
intelligence chief and prime minister general Khin
Nyunt in October 2004, Thein Sein was elevated to
Secretary 1, the fourth-most powerful position in
the junta. In this position he was instrumental in
organizing the National Convention, which would
eventually devise the country's current
constitution.
When prime minister General
Soe Win was hospitalized for leukemia in April
2007, Thein Sein was appointed acting prime
minister. The position became official after Soe
Win died in October 2007. During this time, Thein
Sein was promoted to lieutenant general and later
general. In April 2010, Thein Sein resigned from
the military with other senior officers who would
eventually stand for election in line with a
directive from Than Shwe. In the run-up to the
November 2010 polls, Thein Sein led the Union
Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), widely
viewed as the military's own political party.
Ties to the top Thein Sein's
rise despite his lack of real battlefield
experience can be attributed to his close
relationship with Senior General Than Shwe, for
whom he has served as a close aide. Traditionally
advancement to the top echelons of the military
and the SPDC had been dependent on battlefield
experience. The exception was Khin Nyunt, whose
power was derived from his control of the
extensive intelligence apparatus and the patronage
of former dictator general Ne Win.
The
choice of Thein Sein over other generals for
president, especially the more senior Shwe Mann,
may have as much to do with his more
internationally acceptable cleaner image as it
does his close relationship to Than Shwe. Thein
Sein is not known to be associated with
internationally sanctioned business groups or part
of newly expanding political cliques.
Myanmar military officers and outside
observers have described Thein Sein as being much
less corrupt than his colleagues. His children are
also less business inclined and free of the
scandals that have plagued the offspring of Shwe
Mann and other senior officers. His lack of long
service at the frontline command has allowed him
to sidestep accusations of direct involvement in
human-rights abuses.
He has also by and
large escaped criticism for recent repression.
Although prime minister during the brutal
suppression of the September 2007 "Saffron
Revolution" led by Buddhist monks, the crackdown
was widely seen as directed by Than Shwe and other
generals.
When the regime initially
rejected international aid following the
disastrous 2008 Cyclone Nargis, blame was placed
more squarely on Than Shwe as SPDC chairman.
Following the deal brokered by Association of
Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) secretary general
Surin Pitsuwan to allow foreign aid and aid
workers into the country. Thein Sein was appointed
chairman of the relief coordinating committee and
was point man for the internationally backed
humanitarian efforts.
As the regime's
representative at most international forums,
including ASEAN meetings, he slowly emerged as the
face of the regime. In 2009, Thein Sein became the
first Myanmar leader to visit the United States
since 1988, when he attended the 64th session of
the UN General Assembly in New York. While widely
seen as quiet, he has simultaneously come across
as confident and persuasive as a staunch defender
of the regime.
That all said, it's not
clear that he has the power or inclination to lead
a meaningful political transition. Thein Sein has
suffered for some time from heart disease and
relies on a pacemaker. He had previously asked to
be allowed to retire due to his health conditions
and age. Some analysts have already questioned
whether he will be able to serve out his full
five-year term.
Five years, however,
may be all Than Shwe needs to establish his brand
of "disciplined democracy", where the military
effectively controls parliament and the executive.
A one-term president would also allow Than Shwe to
groom an adequate successor, while at the same
time retaining enough behind-the-scenes power to
control both the political process and the
military. It would also allow him enough control
to avert a putsch similar to the one he carried
out against an aging and increasingly disempowered
Ne Win in 2002.
Thus Thein Sein will
likely serve more as the public face of the
government while Than Shwe continues to pull
strings from the shadows. The newly formed Supreme
State Council, which Than Shwe chairs and is
ostensibly advisory in its role, is the most
concrete manifestation of this new ruling
arrangement.
The eight-member body is made
up entirely of current and former senior military
officers, all of whom were members of the recently
dissolved SPDC, and is expected to be the final
power in the country. Than Shwe recently resigned
from his position as commander-in-chief of the
Myanmar armed forces, handing over power to
General Min Aung Hlaing, who was sworn in on March
30. But his leadership over the State Supreme
Council will ensure that he retains final say over
the military.
As president, Thein Sein
also chairs the National Defense and Security
Council, the 11-member grouping of senior
officials called for in the 2008 constitution that
controls the military and thus will largely
determine policy. Thein Sein is also a member
of the State Supreme Council. Both councils have
the ability to overrule both the cabinet and
parliament.
Rivals in the
wings Thein Sein's role as president,
however, does not apparently sit well with all the
generals. Shwe Mann may be unhappy with his
position as speaker of the lower house, which puts
him below Thein Sein, formerly his subordinate in
the SPDC. There is also believed to be tension
between Thein Sein and vice president Tin Aung
Myint Oo, who is reportedly unhappy with not being
chosen as president.
Both Shwe Mann and
Tin Aung Myint Oo are seen as more ambitious, and
corrupt, than Thein Sein. Both are noted for their
strong involvement in business, particularly
through their relations to prominent businessmen
such as Tay Za, and for lending support to the
business activities of their children. Their
ambition, however, make them unsatisfactory
choices for a dictator bent on remaining in power
from behind the scenes.
While it is
possible that he could assume more power as time
goes on, Thein Sein will assure that the machinery
of government moves according to the dictates of
Than Shwe. To date, Thein Sein has shown little
sign of being reform-minded. He is also unlikely
to push for stepped up dialogue aimed at national
reconciliation with opposition leader Aung San Suu
Kyi or ethnic groups.
It is early days for
Thein Sein's administration, but his three highly
scrutinized policy speeches to date are as notable
for their omissions as their pronouncements.
In his inaugural speech to parliament and
his new cabinet, Thein Sein made it clear that
building a modern army was a critical task. He
also pronounced that health and education would be
improved to international standards. Myanmar's
official budget for 2011/2012 was set by the
outgoing SPDC and gave the lion's share of funding
to the military while health and education
remained low fiscal priorities.
Thein Sein
also expressed in his speech to parliament that
fighting corruption and bribery would be a
priority. Many read this as a sop to the
international community, especially prospective
foreign investors. Corruption has become so
endemic in Myanmar that it is unlikely much
headway can be made without the kind of
institutional reform and accountability that would
surely be vetoed by the other generals who have
greatly and corruptly profited from the current
system.
He gave a second speech to the
Special Project Implementation Committee, which
Thein Sein chairs, on April 22. In that
presentation, the president talked about the need
for development, continuing infrastructure
projects started by the SPDC and improving
agriculture. However, few concrete policy aims
were outlined, making the speech similar to those
given in past years by ineffectual generals.
In an April 24 speech to the Central
Committee for Progress of Border Areas and
National Races, which Thein Sein also chairs, he
said the government must convince ethnic minority
groups of the government's good intentions.
Stressing the need for national unity, he said
this was necessary to ensure cooperation with
development efforts and loosen ties with
neighboring countries, likely referring to China
and Thailand. He did not, however, mention the
military's ongoing operations against ethnic Karen
and Shan insurgents or the need to restore broken
ceasefires with several other ethnic-based
insurgent movements.
In a move that could
indicate a new role for technocrats in policy
decisions, Thein Sein recently appointed a
presidential advisory board of three committees
consisting of three members each to assist him
with political, economic and legal matters. In a
surprise move, the new economics committee
included U Myint, a noted economist and close
friend of Suu Kyi. This may mark a change from the
failed military-devised economic policies of the
past, but it is still too early to determine how
much influence the advisors may have.
During the next five years of Thein
Sein's presidency he is expected to preside over
Myanmar's hosting of the 2013 Southeast Asian
Games and the hoped for chairmanship of ASEAN in
2014. The generals seem to believe that with the
elections and a new democratic government they
finally have the credentials for a full-fledged
seat at the international table. Unless Thein Sein
can prove that he is his own man and his reform
promises genuine, those credentials should and
will remain in doubt.
Clifford
McCoy is a freelance
journalist.
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