ASIA
HAND The
deal behind Thailand's polls By Shawn W Crispin
BANGKOK -
High-level secret talks between Thailand's royal
palace, military and self-exiled former premier
Thaksin Shinawatra point towards a stable outcome
to this Sunday's highly anticipated election.
Contrary to widespread speculation of a post-poll
coup and new rounds of street violence, the
military is more likely to stay in the barracks if
Thaksin's Puea Thai party wins and forms a new
government.
Puea Thai has surged ahead in
pre-election polls, holding sway in its
geographical strongholds and taking the lead in
pivotal swing constituencies. The party has
rallied around Thaksin's sister, Yingluck
Shinawatra, a political novice whose campaign has
focused on the need for national reconciliation.
Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva has acknowledged
his Democrats trail in opinion
surveys, and party members
seem increasingly resigned to a second-place
finish.
It's a popular result the
country's royalist establishment appears to have
anticipated. According to sources familiar with
the dialogue, Thaksin interlocutor Wattana
Muangsook, Queen Sirikit's lady-in-waiting
Jarungjit Thikara and Defense Minister Prawit
Wongsuwan met in Brunei in February to discuss
post-poll scenarios. There have been subsequent
meetings between the three camps, including one in
Dubai in the United Arab Emirates, according to
the same sources.
The talks have aimed to
avoid new confrontation and foster reconciliation
after last year's anti-government "red shirt"
street protests and military crackdown resulted in
the deaths of 91 people, mostly civilians. They
also signal the potential building blocks of a
wider accommodation between Thaksin's camp and at
least one section of the royalist establishment
concerning the looming royal succession from
83-year-old King Bhumibol Adulyadej to heir
apparent Crown Prince Vajiralongkorn.
According to a source familiar with the
talks, the military has agreed to allow Puea Thai
to form a new elected government unopposed in
exchange for a vow from Thaksin not to pursue
political revenge or legal prosecutions of top
military officials behind the 2006 coup and last
year's crackdown, and to refrain broadly from
intervening in military affairs, including the
annual reshuffle that determines the army's
leadership. Army Commander General Prayuth
Chan-ocha, a palace favorite and member of the
elite Queen's Guard, is eligible to serve three
more years in his position.
Thaksin's
representative has also been pressed at the talks
to rein in the anti-monarchy elements in his camp,
including ranking members of his aligned United
Front for Democracy Against Dictatorship (UDD)
protest group and Puea Thai party, according to
the sources. Many royalists believe the UDD's
overseas chapters are mainly responsible for the
flood of anti-monarchy material that in recent
years have been posted anonymously to the
Internet.
Fronted by Abhisit's
administration, the royal establishment's
crackdown on freedoms in the name of defending the
monarchy has undermined its international
credibility and hit its domestic popularity,
witnessed in the Democrat party's apparent
flagging support among Bangkok's middle classes
after carrying the capital convincingly at the
post-coup 2007 polls.
The suppression has
given some currency to Puea Thai's calls for
democracy, despite Thaksin's own authoritarian
record and the party's many highly placed gangster
politicians. The Democrats have been at pains to
counter perceptions that they have served at the
military's pleasure, including by whitewashing its
role in killing unarmed UDD protestors during last
year's crackdown. Nobody on either side has been
brought to account for the violence.
To
put reconciliation efforts on a new track, the
three sides to the secret dialogue have discussed
the formation of a new independent commission
whose recommendations, including a potential
amnesty for Thaksin, Abhisit and the military,
would eventually be put to a national referendum.
Surakiart Sathirathai, a foreign minister under
Thaksin and known royalist through his family
connections, has apparently been agreed to lead
the panel.
The election deal, which evolved
over a series of talks, builds on an earlier
accommodation reached with Thaksin in October last
year. That negotiated de-escalation in tensions
saw the UDD sharply circumscribe its protest
activities, while officials stopped without
explanation their earlier bids to extradite
Thaksin from exile in Dubai. It also allowed
Thaksin access to the 30 billion baht (US$1
billion) of his assets not confiscated in last
year's Supreme Court decision that sparked the
UDD's nine-week protest.
Meltdown
scenarios Whether the deal holds up after
the polls will depend on several mutable factors.
Judging by the frequent failure of previous
informal and formal talks held since the 2006
military coup, the potential for another meltdown
cannot be ruled out.
People familiar with
the secret talks believe that Yingluck's campaign
emphasis on reconciliation, and Thaksin's and UDD
leader Thida Thavornseth's recent public pledges
of allegiance to the constitutional monarchy, have
deliberately signaled commitment to the deal. Nor
have they rallied around jailed UDD co-leader and
Puea Thai party list politician Jatuporn Prompan,
who was detained after making comments perceived
as critical of royal family during a UDD rally in
April.
However, people familiar with the
talks suggest Thaksin's commitment could falter
once his sister and allies - assuming, as opinion
polls suggest, Puea Thai wins the election - are
firmly in power with a democratic mandate. His
negotiating leverage, including for his own
amnesty and political rehabilitation, will be
significantly enhanced if Puea Thai wins in a
landslide and is able to form a majority
government without coalition partners.
Previous behind-the-scenes talks,
including an April 2010 meeting between Bangkok
governor and Democrat politician Sukhumbhand
Paribatra and Thaksin in Brunei in the wake of
protest-related violence that resulted in deaths
on both sides, have seen Thaksin back away from
stated commitments. Similar backtracking was
apparent in May 2010 when UDD leaders agreed to
dissolve their protest in exchange for early polls
but reneged after Thaksin balked.
Just as
significant is whether the royal establishment is
unified in doing a deal with Thaksin for the sake
of stability. It's unclear how King Bhumibol's
royal advisory Privy Council would react to any
reconciliation proposal that grants Thaksin
amnesty for earlier court decisions, including a
criminal corruption conviction, and allows for his
return to Thailand. While both Prayuth and Thaksin
have been vocal during the campaign, the Privy
Council has been conspicuous in its silence.
It seems apparent that one side of the
royal establishment is keeping its options open
for another judicial intervention that could
dissolve any Puea Thai-led government soon after
it is formed. Thai courts brought down two
Thaksin-aligned governments in 2008, paving the
way for Abhisit's rise to power through what many
believe was a military-influenced parliamentary
vote. In 2007, a military-appointed tribune ruled
to dissolve Thaksin's first political party, Thai
Rak Thai, and ban 111 of its senior executives
from politics for five years.
Democrat
party politician Kiat Sittheeamorn intimated
during a recent presentation to foreign reporters
that his party would challenge a Puea Thai win on
the grounds that Thaksin has illegally served as
the party's leader as a banned politician. Puea
Thai has campaigned on the motto "Thaksin thinks,
Puea Thai acts" and Thaksin has admitted in press
interviews that he personally has devised many of
the party's policies. There is also a potential
case brewing against Yingluck that may accuse her
of perjury in one of Thaksin's asset trials.
Some political analysts read special
relevance into King Bhumibol's speech last week to
newly appointed judges, advising them to be
vigilant and impartial in serving the nation. His
previous speeches to judges have come ahead of
pivotal court decisions, including ones that have
gone against Thaksin and his aligned political
parties. Although King Bhumibol is at present
confined to a wheelchair due to health
complications, a family member has said he is on a
recuperation course to begin walking again by
July.
King Bhumibol's upright presence is
significant. A previous signature campaign
organized by the UDD calling for a royal pardon
for Thaksin fell on deaf palace ears. The
Democrats have bid to leverage into that royal
position and have campaigned on a "no amnesty"
policy. Yet the three-way secret talks indicate
that another side of the establishment sees the
need for reconciliation with Thaksin's camp and
has apparently lost faith in the Democrats'
ability to protect the continuity of its interests
after the highly revered King Bhumibol passes.
Earlier this year, there was widespread
speculation that Prayuth could move to topple
Abhisit to halt his early election plan. Others
interpreted the sudden outbreak of armed
hostilities with Cambodia in February as the
military stoking a national security related
pretext to subvert the polls. But while the
military is widely viewed as on the ascendency,
through rising budgets and policy independence,
there are parallel indications of erratic behavior
that show it feels more cornered than confident as
it becomes more deeply entrenched in daily
politics.
According to one military
insider with access to top generals, Prayuth and
his deputies view another coup as unviable due to
the potential for a popular uprising and more
bloodshed. Army chief-of-staff Daopong
Rattanasuwon, who has been instrumental in army
crackdowns on the UDD, recently indicated in
private the need to co-exist peacefully with Puea
Thai. The top brass, meanwhile, are reportedly
"horizon scanning" for scenarios to burnish the
military's public image and to step back from
politics while maintaining enough power to
intervene in case of a threat to the monarchy,
including during the succession.
On one
horizon is the idea that a deal with Thaksin could
represent the best hope for containing the
anti-monarchy sentiments unleashed by radical
elements in the UDD. While Thaksin was accused of
disloyalty to the crown by the 2006 coup-makers,
his still close ties to heir apparent
Vajiralongkorn could be leveraged to build popular
support for the succession - rather than the other
way around. The two have met several times since
the 2006 coup, including in recent months in
Munich, Germany, according to one Bangkok-based
diplomat.
While the three-way secret talks
point towards a smooth democratic transition and
new hope for national reconciliation after this
weekend's elections, there are still several
potential dark clouds on the political horizon.
The one thing Thailand's six-year-old political
conflict has demonstrated clearly is that there
are no permanent friends, enemies or deals, and
thus new bouts of instability cannot be ruled out.
Shawn W Crispin is Asia Times
Online's Southeast Asia Editor.
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