Power struggle in 'democratic' Myanmar
By Larry Jagan
BANGKOK - The trappings of the old military regime that ruled Myanmar are
slowly fading from view under new democratically elected president Thein Sein
and his promises of reform. At the same time, a budding power struggle between
the president and vice president Thin Aung Myint Oo has pitted moderate versus
hardline agendas and stalled significantly the new government's economic and
political progress.
Thein Sein, who served as prime minister for four years in the outgoing
military junta, faces what many view as a pre-ordained challenge to his
democratic mandate. According to some government insiders, Thin Aung Myint Oo
has deliberately tried to
undermine the new president, including by asserting his influence over the new
army chief. As a result the president's planned economic reforms and debate
over whether to release over 2,200 political prisoners have already been put on
hold.
Thin Aung Myint Oo represents the old military guard and their hard-line
attitudes towards political change. As former junta leader Than Shwe has
withdrawn from the scene, some believe he deliberately left a power vacuum in
his wake which Thein Sein and Thin Aung Myint Oo are competing to fill. If the
competition escalates into open rifts, some fear the military could step in to
suspend the country's nascent democracy.
To complicate matters, the top leaders of the Union Solidarity and Development
Party (USDP) - the military-linked ruling party in parliament - are also trying
to assert influence. These top party officials, who were persuaded to resign or
retire from the army ahead of last November's election, no longer have their
military stripes. Many are from the older generation of military ministers who
remain suspicious of the country's move from military to democratic rule.
Although Than Shwe may have formally retired from the country's political
scene, seen in the removal of his once ubiquitous portraits hung in official
buildings, his legacy is playing havoc with Thein Sein's room to maneuver. In
an effort to ensure that no strong military leader emerged to take control of
the country and endanger his and his family's authority and wealth, Than Shwe
is believed to have deliberately left a vacuum in his wake.
Thein Sein is committed to introducing moderate democratic and more ambitious
economic reforms, according to sources close to him. "The old military regime
has gone," said a former senior Myanmar diplomat who wanted to remain
anonymous. "The new government really wants to introduce positive change," he
said.
This optimistic view has been echoed by many Myanmar government officials,
including diplomats posted in Asia and Europe. Thein Sein's speech in March
when he took over as the country's top leader and made calls for a move towards
democratic governance is indicative of his vision, they said.
But with a new pluralist power structure, comprised of executive, legislature
and army branches, there is substantial scope for spoiling activities. Analysts
believe that Thin Aung Myint Oo, the former head of an influential trade
council, is playing that role, exploiting opportunities to usurp the
president's authority and subvert his agenda.
After cabinet meetings, which usually take place once a week, the ministers are
summoned into his room without Then Sein for tea and an ear bashing, according
to people familiar with the situation. In particular, he has bid to exert
influence over key economic decisions, including authority over potentially
lucrative import and export licenses and company registrations.
In one telling episode, Thein Sein ordered that excise duties on exports be
reduced to 5%. Later Thin Aung Myint Oo intervened with the support of the
finance minister to put the rate at 7%. The vice president also unilaterally
cut the budgets of line ministries by between 20% to 40%, apart from the
defense portfolio.
Thin Aung Myint Oo has also strained the new government's international
credibility by telling visitors to the capital, including a recent European
Union delegation and influential US Senator John McCain, that the country holds
no political prisoners. International human rights groups contend that the
regime holds over 2,200 political prisoners behind bars. Internal debate over
the issue has reportedly been stonewalled by the vice president.
New marching orders
The most critical tussle will concern the once dominant military's future role
in politics. The 2008 constitution guaranteed military members 25% of the total
seats in parliament. New army chief General Min Aung Hlaing has downplayed the
military's political role and soldier MPs in both national houses of parliament
were virtually silent during discussions in parliament's first session held
earlier this year.
Min Aung Hlaing told military MPs before parliament was convened that their
political duty was to rebuild the reputation of the army: It's your duty to
become seasoned politicians, he reportedly said, as you represent the future
Myanmar. He virtually blamed the old guard for the country's current economic
and political mess, according to one military MP.
Thin Aung Myint Oo is reportedly unhappy with this limited role for the armed
forces and has maintained they should exert pressure on both the executive and
legislature. Several weeks ago Thin Aung Myint Oo reportedly summoned the army
chief to his office and lectured him on the new power structure, emphasizing
that he was his boss as militarily he out-ranked Thein Sein.
Die-hards in the USDP, many forced to resign from the military to contest
electoral seats as civilians, are already expressing frustrations about being
sidelined by the current government and parliament. They are also now working
behind the scenes to reassert their lost influence through connections to the
old regime.
In particular, they are reportedly trying to encourage Than Shwe to establish
and lead a new State Supreme Council to oversee the new power structure, as
outlined and allowed for by the new charter. USDP leaders Aung Thaung and Htay
Oo have reportedly urged the former leader to consider a senior advisory role
similar to the ones China's Deng Xiaoping and Singapore's Lee Kuan Yew played
after they stepped down from their respective countries' formal leadership
positions.
Some analysts believe that Than Shwe still runs the country from behind the
scenes, evidenced in his frequent meetings with MPs at his personal residence
in Naypyidaw. "Than Shwe has no plan to switch state power to the president or
parliament," said Aung Lynn Htut, a former Myanmar military intelligence
officer and diplomat who defected after he was posted to Washington. "He will
continue to control things from behind the curtain," he said.
For the moment, these layers of political intrigue are dogging Myanmar's
movement forward as a guided democracy. Thein Sein appears to have at least one
strong ally in the parliamentary speaker Thura Shwe Mann, the junta's former No
3. It is in his interest to ensure parliament functions effectively within the
new political structure. He is also a known rival of Thin Aung Myint Oo,
especially in economic matters.
Myanmar's political future will hang in the balance until this power struggle
is resolved. While Thein Sein presents a new way forward, Thin Aung Myint Oo
represents the front line of defense for the status quo. While each pushes
their conflicting agendas, the military waits in the wings and the potential
for a coup in the name of restoring stability and suspending democracy can not
for now be ruled out.
Larry Jagan previously covered Myanmar politics for the British
Broadcasting Corporation. He is currently a freelance journalist based in
Bangkok.
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