CHIANG MAI - Myanmar's new civilian government is making big efforts to show
its legitimacy as a democratic regime. With little concrete action to back up
government pronouncements, questions remain whether the world is simply seeing
a repeat of the smoke and mirrors practiced by the military junta it has
supposedly replaced.
The most notable development of recent weeks was the August 19 meeting between
opposition leader and Nobel laureate, Aung San Suu Kyi, and Myanmar president
Thein Sein. The former general was the last prime minister under the military
dictatorship that ruled the country since 1962.
The one-hour meeting took place during Aung San Suu Kyi's first
visit to the new capital at Naypyidaw where she also attended a government
workshop on economic development. Although few details have emerged from the
meeting, Aung San Suu Kyi told reporters afterward she was "happy and
satisfied" with the discussion and hoped to meet with the president again. On
August 24, she told reporters she believed Thein Sein wants "real positive
change".
Although Aung San Suu Kyi has been able to meet with government officials in
the past, the meeting with Thein Sein was a clear attempt by the government to
show it to establish a high-level dialogue with the democracy leader. The
country's dictator, Senior General Than Shwe, had refused in the past to meet
her. The meeting followed two previous discussions with Labor Minister and
former general Aung Kyi.
Aung San Suu Kyi's visit to Naypyidaw was her second journey upcountry since
being released from house arrest in November 2010. Her detention was a direct
result of the large crowds she was able to draw during a tour of upper Myanmar
in 2003 that culminated in an attack on her caravan by thugs believed to be
controlled by the military regime at Depayin in Sagaing division.
This marks a change from previously stricter government attitudes. In June,
Aung San Suu Kyi was warned to refrain from involvement in politics and
warnings that trips up country could result in chaos and riots, a warning that
large crowds or demonstrations may result in a military crackdown.
She has also been able to release two "open letters" critical of government
policy. The first presented her views on controversial dam projects and the
second called for a nationwide ceasefire with the country's ethnic groups to be
followed by discussions on peace and national reconciliation.
Aung San Suu Kyi was barred from participating in the election and her party,
the National League for Democracy (NLD), was ordered disbanded after failing to
register. The NLD's opposition to the 2008 constitution and election rules
remains a major stumbling block between the government and what would be
Myanmar's strongest opposition party.
Overtures and an apparent softening towards Aung San Suu Kyi and the NLD were
periodically used by Myanmar's military rulers in the past, often to avert
international criticism. The generals, however, viewed her widespread
popularity as a dangerous influence. Each time, the pro-democracy icon was put
back under lengthy periods of house arrest during which she was often cut off
from contacts outside the country. The Depayin crackdown on her and her party
resulted in the deaths of some 70 of her supporters.
Myanmar's new civilian government, while composed of many of the same members
of the regime that repeatedly put Aung San Suu Kyi under arrest and jailed her
supporters, has broadened its seeming magnanimity beyond a narrow focus on a
struggle between her and the generals. Thein Sein has called for both a return
of exiles and peace talks with the various ethnic groups engaged in armed
struggle against Naypyidaw.
Thein Sien announced during a speech to local businessmen on August 17 in
Naypyidaw that the government would allow exiles to return home and would
consider leniency towards that that had committed crimes other than murder. He
also indicated the government is willing to work with the exiles to develop the
country.
The announcement, however, has received a cautious response in exile
communities. Many want to see more formal legal guarantees, especially
concerning political offenses, before accepting the offer. Unclear as well is
the status of the over 100,000 refugees along the Thai-Myanmar border and those
exiles who have taken up arms against the regime and could be prosecuted for
murder.
An August 18 peace overture by Thein Sein to armed groups representing several
of the countries minority groups 's was met with similar skepticism. The groups
have objected to the stipulation that negotiations must be conducted through
state and division governments first before proceeding to the national level.
Ethnic leaders feel that as representatives of their peoples they deserve to
negotiate on a national level, especially since several of the groups, such as
the Karen National Union (KNU) and Kachin Independence Organization (KIO),
operate across two or more states and divisions.
Ethnic groups also object to being asked to negotiate separately with the
government. Instead, they wish to negotiate as a bloc, through the recently
formed United Nationalities Federal Council (UNFC). The group is an alliance of
the KNU, KIO, Shan State Progressive Party, Chin National Front, New Mon State
Party and Karenni National Progressive Party (KNPP). The UNFC has insisted any
negotiations must take place between the government and the UNCF.
A core element of current ethnic demands for negotiations with the government
is for any discussions to be conducted within the framework of the 1947
Panglong agreement. The agreement which was made with Myanmar's independence
hero, General Aung San, was aimed at establishing a federal system and
guaranteeing ethnic minority rights. Its suspension in the wake of the 1962
coup installing military rule was a major reason for ethnic groups such as the
Kachin and Shan to take up armed struggle. The current government insists any
discussion should be conducted within the framework of the 2008 constitution.
Other reformist activity has taken place in the newly formed parliament which
is currently in its second session. During a speech to mark the opening of the
second session, Thein Sein said the government is working to ease tensions with
opposition parties that "still do not accept the country's constitution", a
veiled reference to the NLD. He also said the government is seeking improved
relations with ethnic minorities, noting that border development was important
for security.
Within parliament, MPs have been able to criticize government policies and put
forward motions that may have gotten them arrested in years past. Shan State MP
Sai Maung Tin sent a report at the end of July documenting army abuses and
urging the formation of a peace commission to Thein Sein and both vice
presidents, and cabinet ministers. During the second session, Health Minister
Dr Pe Thet Khin gave a speech critical of budget allocations for health.
While problems remain in parliament over procedural matters, MPs are able to
raise and debate issues based on real concerns rather than the simple rubber
stamping of government decisions. Speaker of the Lower House and former general
and key junta leader, Thura Shwe Mann, in a speech to parliament declared it
the most responsible institution for promoting democracy and human rights and
urged the adoption of legislation to protect the nation and its citizens. He
also called on MPs to listen to the voices of the people and take strong steps
based on past lessons.
Most recently, on August 27, several members of parliament, including from the
bloc of military MPs that makes up 25% of parliament, raised the issue of a
sweeping prisoner amnesty in the Lower House. The issue was reportedly
forwarded for more discussion to the National Defense and Security Council, a
body headed by Thein Sein. The military MPs may be seeking freedom for military
officers, many who are former intelligence officials, imprisoned during a 2004
purge that also resulted in the house arrest of former regime Number 3 and
military intelligence chief and prime minister, Khin Nyunt.
The issue of some 2,100 political prisoners is key for continued rapprochement
between the government and Aung San Suu Kyi as well as improved relations with
the West, particularly the United States. During a recently concluded visit by
UN Human Rights Rapporteur for Burma, Tomas Ojea Quintana, government officials
told the UN envoy they feared the release of prisoners would result in social
unrest. The state-run New Light of Myanmar quoted Upper House Speaker Khin Aung
Myint as telling Quintana, "Political prisoners will be released when they are
certain not to disrupt the nation's peace and stability."
At the same time, other government officials continued the regime's traditional
obfuscation of the issue. An August 26 article in the New Light of Myanmar
quoted Chief Justice Tun Tun Oo as saying, "There are no prisoners serving a
sentence for their beliefs; prisoners are all serving their terms for crimes
they have committed." And Home Minister, Lieutenant General (retired) Ko Ko,
disputed Quintana's numbers for political prisoners, claiming many were
convicted of drug trafficking, murder, bombings, insurgency and other crimes.
Quintana's five-day visit was his first in 18 months and coincides with calls
by activists for a United Nations commission of inquiry into government
complicity in human rights violations, a movement Quintana started after asking
for an inquiry by the UN Commission for Human Rights. After meeting with
government ministers as well as Aung San Suu Kyi and the NLD, Quintana summed
up his trip saying that despite recent steps toward rapprochement with the
opposition, human rights challenges remain.
Indeed, the government may display more openness to Aung San Suu Kyi and allow
more open debate of issues in parliament, but simple pronouncements cannot
erase the distrust of almost 50 years of military misrule. Many of the generals
who made up the State Peace and Development Council (SPDC) now hold key
positions in the cabinet.
In addition, holding 25% of seats in parliament, other former military officers
hold senior positions in ministries and make up a large portion of the majority
Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP). The shadow of former military
supremo Senior General Than Shwe still darkens Myanmar's democratic transition
and many analyst expect him to take a behind-the-scenes role in the running of
the country in a similar manner to China's Deng Xiaoping or Singapore's Lee
Kuan Yew.
A power struggle between hardline former military officers headed by Thiha
Thura Tin Aung Myint Oo and perceived moderates led by Thein Sein is believed
to have stymied political and economic reform. Thein Sein and like-minded MPs
are keen to show they are doing something good for the country and reinforce
the idea that civilians and not the military are in control of the government.
Tin Aung Myint Oo's loyalists are wary of democratic rule and its potential for
dissent. Some analysts, however, believe this rivalry was created by design by
Than Shwe in order for no one leader to gain enough power to challenge him in
his semi-retirement.
Cynical observers note that Myanmar's leaders have opened up before only to
tighten up again once international pressure is off. There is some reason to
believe that current moves are aimed at reducing opposition to Myanmar's desire
to gain the chair of the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations
(ASEAN) in 2014. Myanmar was denied the chairmanship in 2006 over Western
pressure on ASEAN over the country's human rights record. The regional grouping
is to make a decision on the issue in coming months.
Regardless of the reasons behind reform or hardline efforts to block it, there
has certainly been an unprecedented openness in recent weeks. The government,
encumbered as it is with former junta members and military men, cannot be
expected to make a rapid shift to a liberal and open democracy.
Still, simple pronouncements and debates in parliament, unless translated to
policies and action, will not give the government the democratic legitimacy it
seems to crave. To be taken seriously by the population and the international
community there must be concrete action.
Talks with Aung San Suu Kyi need to be followed up with inclusion of the NLD
into national reconciliation efforts and the freedom to influence policy, even
if as an outsider until the next elections. Unless the government can reign in
the army in the border areas and restore peace on equitable terms with the
ethnic groups, it is likely the civil war will continue and may even broaden.
Invitations to exiles to return home is a good step, if legal guarantees are
extended, but without the rehabilitation of political prisoners in Myanmar's
prisons, it will remain a largely empty gesture. This is a tall order, but
without these measure, elements such as anti-corruption drives and economic
reforms will not be enough to prove the government's legitimacy.
Concrete moves towards reform may put the government on a path that will be
difficult to reverse without reverting to direct military rule and a return to
pariah status. But then, Myanmar's military rulers have never shown a need to
rely on logical thinking, instead making decisions based more on preservation
of their power. This is now compounded by the interest of many generals to
maintain their grip on very lucrative business empires.
Brian McCartan is a Bangkok-based freelance journalist. He may be reached
at brianpm@comcast.net.
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