Terror politics in the Philippines
By Joel D Adriano
MINDANAO - A series of mysterious bombings on the southern island of Mindanao
has raised speculation that foreign-backed, local Muslim terror groups are
ramping up and expanding their operations against government forces. However,
it is just as likely the explosions are part and parcel of the region's
tumultuous and often violent politics.
No group has come forth to claim responsibility for the bombings, two of which
detonated near the headquarters of the Autonomous Region of Muslim Mindanao
(ARMM). Philippine intelligence reports have claimed that the incidents are
linked to terror suspect Basit Usman, a reputed member of the Indonesian terror
group Jemaah Islamiyah (JI), and his trained cohorts from the notorious Abu
Sayyaf group.
Police say they are now hunting some 20 terror suspects who
reportedly have been trained by Usman and recently graduated from a bomb making
course. These newly minted bomb makers have reportedly been trained to conceal
bombs in liquefied petroleum gas tanks used for cooking and other terror
techniques novel to the region, police say.
Authorities also believe that while the recent bombings have been limited to
Cotabato province, the attacks have also likely served as test missions in
preparation for bigger terror operations, potentially targeting the capital
Manila and other urban centers. They have claimed that several JI members have
recently arrived in Mindanao, including Beduh Abdul, a reputed classmate of
Basit during their 1994 elite force training in bomb making, to execute the
missions.
However, there is a gaping hole in those assessments: US intelligence reports
claim that Usman was killed in a Central Intelligence Agency-led drone strike
in Pakistan in January.
Security analysis firm Pacific Strategies and Assessments (PSA) wrote in a
recent report that numerous past reports from Philippine authorities were based
on "presumptions that all bomb blasts suggest foreign terrorist group
connectivity, while warning Metro Manila was a likely future target". PSA notes
that Philippine officials have often later retracted or contradicted earlier
alarmist reports.
In response to such criticism, Philippine police say they now have video proof
of actual terrorist bomb-making exercises, although they won't verify where or
when the video was made.
Presidential spokesperson Edwin Lacierda, citing reports from national security
adviser Cesar Garcia, said last week that Abu Sayyaf is now working closely
with JI but that attacks on Manila were not imminent. He didn't elaborate on
the information, revealing only that the intelligence had been shared among
members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations.
Political motivations
Other sources view the recent bombings differently. One source familiar with
the Mindanao's rough and tumble local politics believes the recent attacks are
the work of a local official in Cotabato province who he declined to name for
fear of reprisal. He contends the recent bombings are more accurately
interpreted as election-related violence than terrorist operations.
"If it was terrorism you would have numerous casualties," the source said.
"Obviously, the bombings were not meant to hurt many people."
The source contends that the bombings are a ploy to make the situation in
Mindanao appear more volatile than it really is and to discredit the current
ARMM chairman's ability to maintain security. Once a new head of the ARMM is
elected, the source ventures, the anonymous bombings will likely cease.
The ARMM election was scheduled for August 8 but President Benigno Aquino and
his allies in congress pushed for its postponement to synchronize the poll with
mid-term elections due in May 2013. Congress instead allowed Aquino to appoint
an officer-in-charge (OIC) who will replace the outgoing ARMM chairman, whose
term ended on September 30, and remain in power until the next election.
There were initially 50 candidates considered for the OIC post, including
former leaders of Muslim rebel groups and members of warring political clans.
By mid-September the list was trimmed to seven and competition between top
candidates for the politically powerful post heightened regional tensions and
may have contributed to the bombings.
Aquino was reportedly set to name an OIC before leaving for the US until a
Supreme Court decision ruled against the legality of postponing the ARMM
election until 2013. The ruling declared the executive appointment of an
interim OIC was unconstitutional and that the incumbent should have been
allowed to serve until a new head was elected.
The Philippine government has long sought an end to autonomy-driven conflicts
in Mindanao. With frequent government clashes with insurgents, fighting among
competing political clans and roving kidnapping and extortion gangs that target
foreigners, the news from Mindanao often puts the country's image in a bad and
unstable light. Instability has greatly deterred both local and foreign
investment.
According to Florangel Rosario-Braid, a noted scholar and academician, poverty
is still the root cause of conflict in Mindanao. Decades of neglect and war
have pushed the poverty rate to almost half of the population, making the
region a fertile recruitment ground for insurgent and criminal groups. The
poverty rate in ARMM is estimated at 45.7% while access to water, electricity
and social services is among the country's lowest.
In a bid to stabilize the region through greater development, the government
vowed to spend 30% of its annual infrastructure budget in Mindanao. Due to
ongoing instability and government corruption, only a fraction of those
earmarked funds have actually been spent in Mindanao. Notably none of the
Aquino administration's major 32 public private partnership infrastructure
projects is scheduled for Mindanao, according to Crisanto Frianeza, secretary
general of the Philippine Chamber of Commerce and Industry.
Although 75% of Mindanao's population is Christian, Muslim insurgent groups
insist they should be given autonomy over the resource-rich island, an area
they claim as their ancestral homeland dating to before the arrival of colonial
Spain in the 15th century.
Many observers believe that the government's latest attempt to find a
settlement with the rebel Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF), a group
fighting for autonomy, is doomed to failure since the MILF wants to create and
govern a sub-state from territory it controls. Government negotiators have
insisted that the Philippine constitution doesn't allow the creation of a
sub-state and instead has offered an "enhanced autonomy" agreement.
Aquino earlier hinted he might be open to amending the constitution to bring
peace to Mindanao. But the island's majority Catholic population is certain to
oppose any changes that allow Muslim rebels to establish a sub-state.
"Christians have stronger prejudices and biases against Muslims than the other
way around," said a former mayor of Mindanao's General Santos City.
As long as those sentiments prevail, so too will instability and occasional
unexplained bombs.
Joel D Adriano is an independent consultant and award-winning freelance
journalist. He was a sub-editor for the business section of The Manila Times
and writes for ASEAN BizTimes, Safe Democracy and People's Tonight.
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